President Trump

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Into the mix is Trump's role in overturning Roe.
And Project 2025.
And Trump's ramped up fascist rhetoric.
Etc.

Beats me why it's close at all. If anything, you'd think that 2024 was going to be a slam dunk, massive blue wave, easy victory for Harris.
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I think it will be relatively. I don’t think it will be anywhere near as close as it was in 2020. I think the polls will be out by 5-6 points.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
I’ve visited over half the States in the course of my adult life, many of which were staunchly Republican, and that wasn’t my lived experience.
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WIth respect...
I've worked and lived in Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ohio; I've spent considerable time visiting Missouri; and have and have visited Louisiana, Indiana, and Florida.

Of these states I have favorable impressions only of Louisiana (b/c I only spent time in Baton Rouge) and Florida (b/c I only spent time in Miami Beach). The rest of the time in the rest of the states I mentioned was either slightly negative or godawful (worse was Texas in spite of living for about 8 years near Houston).

And for once, I completely agree with @The blue phantom's take. The USA is full of holier-than-thou, white, religious assholes who are deeply racist, anti-immigrant, distrustful of institutions, and by-in-large, much duller than a butter knife. 70-80 million or so seems low to me - but it's in the ballpark.
 
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gordondaviesmoustache said:
I’ve visited over half the States in the course of my adult life, many of which were staunchly Republican, and that wasn’t my lived experience.
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This is why i'm astounded at the support trump gets.
I've been around the States a few times and met lots of sound , rational people. But the fact is millions will vote for a complete dickhead.
 
stonerblue said:
This is why i'm astounded at the support trump gets.
I've been around the States a few times and met lots of sound , rational people. But the fact is millions will vote for a complete dickhead.
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Try disguising yourself as non-white - my father was white-as-chalk but my mother was a native from Guam; as a result I look off-white, something other, maybe Mexican. My lifelong experience with midwestern and southern states is that they all have significant racial bias against nonwhites. And that explains a lot of Trump's popularity.

Interestingly enough, in spite of Trump's rhetoric against immigrants - especially any immigrant who doesn't look flour-white - some non-caucasians nonetheless support Trump. There was a recent poll/survey to explore this unintuitive phenomenon - and it found that Blacks, Hispanics, etc., supported Trump in spite of his rhetoric b/c they thought that Trump's anti-black, anti-hispanic, anti-non-white rhetoric was directed at someone other than themselves. OK in their minds that Trump is engaging in such hate speech - b/c it's not me - the Black, Hispanic, non-Caucasian, that Trump is referring to.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Into the mix is Trump's role in overturning Roe.
And Project 2025.
And Trump's ramped up fascist rhetoric.
Etc.

Beats me why it's close at all. If anything, you'd think that 2024 was going to be a slam dunk, massive blue wave, easy victory for Harris.
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I’m not convinced it’s close, at least in terms of the popular vote. Those polls are well dodgy.
1. Many of them are based on likely to vote respondents, which excludes those who did not vote last time. So all those young people and suburban women who have recently registered are not in the sample.
2. Many polls still rely on landlines. Young people tend not to answer unknown callers whether landline or on-line.
3. Most polls make adjustments which assume they are under counting Republicans, this can be totally wrong.
4. Many polls are paid for by parties which throws doubt on the results published.
5. There is the phenomenon of polls tending towards the same results.
6. I suspect many respondents are hiding their true allegence from their Republican family.
7. Etc etc.


On the ground, the evidence points to Harris: enthusiasm, rallies, local active offices etc.
Vote blue.
 
KS55 said:
I’m not convinced it’s close, at least in terms of the popular vote. Those polls are well dodgy.
1. Many of them are based on likely to vote respondents, which excludes those who did not vote last time. So all those young people and suburban women who have recently registered are not in the sample.
2. Many polls still rely on landlines. Young people tend not to answer unknown callers whether landline or on-line.
3. Most polls make adjustments which assume they are under counting Republicans, this can be totally wrong.
4. Many polls are paid for by parties which throws doubt on the results published.
5. There is the phenomenon of polls tending towards the same results.
6. I suspect many respondents are hiding their true allegence from their Republican family.
7. Etc etc.


On the ground, the evidence points to Harris: enthusiasm, rallies, local active offices etc.
Vote blue.
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And with respect...
You (and I too) are very anti-Trump.
The tendency is to view evidence in support of ones convictions in a favorable light; and those in opposition to ones views, as suspect.
The truth is - there are numerous credible arguments about why the polls are off, inflating the support for Trump; and an equal number of salient counter-arguments about why the polls are far too favorable for Harris. In the past 4 years or so we've seen polls at variance with results swinging widely either way - either far too or less favorable for either Democrats or Republicans.

My sense is that this race is too close to call either way, although I think that Harris has a slight advantage. I would not however be surprised to see Trump win by a slight margin, or Harris win by a slight or better-than slight margin.

Complicating matters enormously is the Electoral College effect - where the popular vote (which I'm 90% certain will go for Harris) doesn't matter - instead it's the EC that counts - likely down to a very few voters in a very few states. Who-the-fuck knows how that will go?

We'll see.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
WIth respect...
I've worked and lived in Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ohio; I've spent considerable time visiting Missouri; and have and have visited Louisiana, Indiana, and Florida.
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Visited six of those (not Ohio or Indiana) tbf and like I said that wasn’t my lived experience, but then again I have incredible people skills! :-)
 
Like him or not, he will win this presidential election. But it will come at a cost. By time he takes over office, we would have already witnessed a nuclear attack, and the world will be at its knees economically.

I need to stop smoking the good stuff
 
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