President Trump

[SebastianBlue]

The Las Vegas Sun ― in the 2024 election swing state of Nevada, where polling puts former President Donald Trump less than 1 percentage point ahead of Democratic rival Kamala Harris ― has delivered a stinging rebuke of the GOP nominee.

The newspaper warned in an editorial published Wednesday that not only does Trump’s “racism, sexism, xenophobia” and more make him totally “unfit for any public office” but that his “mental acuity and sharpness are also in decline.”

Swing State Newspaper Slams Trump: âCrippled Cognitivelyâ With âClear Signs Of Mental Illnessâ

The Las Vegas Sun also talked about the Republican nominee's "hateful character."

www.huffpost.com

 

[SebastianBlue]

He's so manly, the most masculine man. There's nobody more manly than him, many people are saying it

With tears in their eyes!

 

[SWP's back]

 

[halfcenturyup]

I don’t know why he would have been banned or when he was.

My guess, though, is it would have been for posting obvious racist, sexist, homophobic, or transphobic content, which is against the CoC.

He has done that quite a few times in the past (and even recently, with his takes on “Kamala” Harris).

It was probably a rhetorical question.

 

[SebastianBlue]

It was probably a rhetorical question.

It wasn’t.

 

[Elbow beards]

He's so manly, the most masculine man. There's nobody more manly than him, many people are saying it

**** looks like a black and white minstrel.

 

[SebastianBlue]

**** looks like a black and white minstrel.

And just as racist.

 

[SWP's back]

Interesting poll

 

[TinFoilHat]

MAGA >>>> Scousers....?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Interesting poll

Looks like it's in the bag for the democrats then. Hard to find any unbiased polling calling a trump win.

 

[halfcenturyup]

Interesting poll

That's a weird statistic. Enthusiasm about voting. Does it count twice if you are more enthusiastic? Joking, obviously. But you could interpret those numbers anyway you want, surely, not just as a positive for democrats.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

That's a weird statistic. Enthusiasm about voting. Does it count twice if you are more enthusiastic? Joking, obviously. But you could interpret those numbers anyway you want, surely, not just as a positive for democrats.

Enthusiasm will manifest as turnout and therefore more votes.

 

[halfcenturyup]

Enthusiasm will manifest as turnout and therefore more votes.

With an unidentifiable correlation and so the statistic is useless. If I was enthusiastic last time and voted democrat but am more enthusiastic to vote democrat this time that doesn't mean anything. Just look at the conclusion: the democrats know what's at stake this time. Possibly, but to me it says the vast majority didn't know what was at stake last time and 23% of democrats still don't get it. Both of which I find more interesting.

Can they not ask if people are going to change how they voted last time? That is the only reliable indicator. Some election interference rule, or something?

 

[halfcenturyup]

So.... Kinda like what you and Foggy do here? I noticed most of the dissenters have been demoralized and left

Just for that reason and that reason alone, I'm NEVER going to leave.

I was banned for some time. Why? I don't know. Certainly didn't say anything close to what many here say about or too me.

But then again, it is what it is. I will stay here and keep posting what I believe to be true in good faith.

Keep posting. I may think a lot of what you say is as nutty as my sister's Christmas cake (long story) but it's always interesting to hear other views.

 

[SebastianBlue]

That's a weird statistic. Enthusiasm about voting. Does it count twice if you are more enthusiastic? Joking, obviously. But you could interpret those numbers anyway you want, surely, not just as a positive for democrats.

In this context, “enthusiasm” correlates fairly strongly with likely turnout based on previous election cycles (Gallop and other polling outfits run this poll many times for every election cycle). Hence why the campaigns care about such polling (it’s always a decent sign of a statistic being useful when both Democrat and Republicans closely watch it).

And more than any other for this cycle, turnout is likely to be the most impactful factor on the outcome because of the gender gap in likely voters and voter registration (women outnumber men in both cases, and more broadly as a proportion of population).

Republicans (and definitely MAGA) have held increasingly smaller shares of eligible voters over the last few decades, to the point that election manipulation, extreme gerrymandering, and the electoral college have become vital mechanisms for staying in power (a Republican candidate hasn’t won the popular vote in presidential elections since 2004 with George W. Bush, and that was the first time since his father won it in 1988). And that is with Republicans actually usually being better at turning out voters than Democrats due to several factors, but chief among the demographics of their likely voter universe, which skews older, wealthier, and much more able and motivated to vote).

It is one of the reasons Republican-led states have made such a concerted effort to curtail or eliminate early and mail-in voting, as it undercuts their one real advantage by allowing poorer people to more easily participate in the election.

So if the Democrats can maintain enthusiasm, and thus high turnout, they will likely win more races and hopefully the presidency.

It is not necessarily the most specific indicator, but it is a useful one among many, nonetheless.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Keep posting. I may think a lot of what you say is as nutty as my sister's Christmas cake (long story) but it's always interesting to hear other views.

You spelled “dangerously unhinged” wrong.

 

[Dax777]

Keep posting. I may think a lot of what you say is as nutty as my sister's Christmas cake (long story) but it's always interesting to hear other views.

Well then let me post the view of someone who articulates my position better than I can.

 

[Dax777]

You spelled “dangerously unhinged” wrong.

Put your glasses on. He spelled it correctly.

 

[halfcenturyup]

In this context, “enthusiasm” correlates fairly strongly with likely turnout based on previous election cycles.

And more than any other for this cycle, turnout is likely to be the most impactful factor on the outcome because of the gender gap in likely voters and voter registration (women outnumber men in both cases, and more broadly as a proportion of population).

Republicans (and definitely MAGA) have held increasingly smaller shares of eligible voters over the last few decades, to the point that election manipulation,extreme gerrymandering, and the electoral college has become vital mechanisms for staying in power (a Republican candidates hasn’t won the popular vote in presidential elections since 2004 with George W. BUSH, and that was the first time since his father won it in 1988).

So if the Democrats can maintain enthusiasm, and thus high turnout, they will likely win more races and hopefully the presidency.

Understand all that. Anything on the correlation between "enthusiasm" and actual voting? It just seems so loosely connected to me .... happy to be educated.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Understand all that. Anything on the correlation between "enthusiasm" and actual voting? It just seems so loosely connected to me .... happy to be educated.

An aggregation from Gallop themselves:

Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout | Gallup Topic

All Gallup articles on Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout

news.gallup.com

A study that has been cited quite heavily regarding the impacts of voter enthusiasm on election turnout and, ultimately, election results:

A behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in American elections

What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in a set of American elections t…

www.sciencedirect.com

A highlight from the study is enthusiasm has a particularly outsized impact on competitive races (which intuitively makes sense).

By the by, one of the most competitive races (and potentially important, due to the likely composition of the next congress), is right here in Maine, where I currently live, in the 2nd Congressional district, where a (very) moderate Democrat is attempting to fight off a heavily-backed (record amounts of money from entities outside of the state have been flooding in) Republican in order to become the new Joe Manchin in the House.