Leicester City (A) - Sun 29th Dec, 14:30 | PL | Pre-Match Thread

Match Result Prediction?

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Hope Rebekah Vardy's husband won't have a field day against us! That said, City to win 3-2. (Doku 2, Foden)
 
Nervous as fuck, but going for a narrow win.
1-2.
Thankfully, United being utter shite is making this run less painful. I’ve wiped all memories of the derby.
Come on City.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
They do work though. How many games have we had fewer opportunities to score than the opposition in this run? Even getting beat 0-4 by Spurs the xG was similar and we had 23 shots to their 9. We should have been out of sight against Sporting and Brighton with multiple chances at 0-1 up in both games.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the tactics, the players just aren’t playing well or enacting those tactics well or finishing our chances.
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Great to see you back posting. Hope you’ll be active on the New Mysic thread in 25
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
They do work though. How many games have we had fewer opportunities to score than the opposition in this run? Even getting beat 0-4 by Spurs the xG was similar and we had 23 shots to their 9. We should have been out of sight against Sporting and Brighton with multiple chances at 0-1 up in both games.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the tactics, the players just aren’t playing well or enacting those tactics well or finishing our chances.
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Our xG was 2.30 from 23 shots.
Their xG was 2.73 from 9 shots.

Put another way our shots were 3 times worse than theirs on average.

That's why the tactics aren't working (that and they are mind numbingly boring). We're creating poor quality chances and the opposition are creating good quality chances.

(Also xG is bollocks for Americans imo)
 
madloaf said:
Our xG was 2.30 from 23 shots.
Their xG was 2.73 from 9 shots.

Put another way our shots were 3 times worse than theirs on average.

That's why the tactics aren't working (that and they are mind numbingly boring). We're creating poor quality chances and the opposition are creating good quality chances.

(Also xG is bollocks for Americans imo)
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xG (and the resulting XPoints) is a really good underlying stat to determine how a team/player is performing. This is predominantly what bookies use to price markets initially).

There are outliers, but usually, the X stats are more accurate than things like possession, number of shots, passes etc in determining how well a team has played.

This is a good link to see the stats vs the reality of the table.
 
Mike N said:
Would liked to have been there today, I’ve got a feeling we’re going to win.
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I feel a bit similar. It's the law of averages, even when we were really, really shite back in the day we sometimes won. The opposition are beyond shite themselves so that is another positive factor. On the other hand lose this and we are really, really fucked.
 
I grew up with rugby league as well as City. Sixty years ago my local team Swinton were bottom of the table in January. Then they drew a game. Afterwards the captain, a wise old chap named Albert Blan, told the team "you know, if we win every match till the end of the season we can still be champions." He got some filthy replies from his teammates. But that's what they did, 17 straight wins and clinched the title in the May sunshine.
And remember, it started with a draw.
 
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