How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

Vic said:
That's not a very good example of the impact of Brexit, given the damage to UK motor manufacturing since 2016.

16000 firms that used to export stuff to the EU no longer bother.
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And yet service growth has grown considerably since Brexit and has clearly become far more lucrative? Do you really view car manufacturing in the UK as a growing and viable industry? The UK car industry has been in slow decline in terms of relevance for over 30 years.

We're lucky it still exists here at all independent of whether we're in the EU or not. It's no different to the steel industry which was destroyed by imports from Asia and we're not in a political or customs union with Asia. That happened because Asia is more competitive than Europe, take note that political unions and customs crap was irrelevant.

This decline in industry and exports goes far beyond Brexit. Did the people of the North East vote for Brexit because their manufacturing industries were doing so well? No, it was the opposite. Export growth was non-existent before Brexit so why are you expecting something magically different had we been in the EU today? It makes no sense at all.

Had we been in the EU today then there's a very strong chance that our exports would be exactly the same as today, it literally would make no difference at all. The evidence of this is history and the fact that today the biggest exporter in Europe (Germany) is on its arse.

https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2Fc8c34c20-0084-11ef-aa3b-bbce3dd3f798-standard.png
 
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inbetween said:
And yet service growth has grown considerably since Brexit and has clearly become far more lucrative? Do you really view car manufacturing in the UK as a growing and viable industry? The UK car industry has been in slow decline in terms of relevance for over 30 years.

We're lucky it still exists here at all independent of whether we're in the EU or not. It's no different to the steel industry which was destroyed by imports from Asia and we're not in a political or customs union with Asia. That happened because Asia is more competitive than Europe, take note that political unions and customs crap was irrelevant.

This decline in industry and exports goes far beyond Brexit. Did the people of the North East vote for Brexit because their manufacturing industries were doing so well? No, it was the opposite. Export growth was non-existent before Brexit so why are you expecting something magically different had we been in the EU today? It makes no sense at all.

Had we been in the EU today then there's a very strong chance that our exports would be exactly the same as today, it literally would make no difference at all. The evidence of this is history and the fact that today the biggest exporter in Europe (Germany) is on its arse.

https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2Fc8c34c20-0084-11ef-aa3b-bbce3dd3f798-standard.png
Click to expand...

I mean, it's tedious, but still worth repeating.

Your personal noddy analysis is at odds with literally every economic expert in existence.

Why should anyone take you seriously?

You say upthread that Brexit for you wasn't about the economics, but then go on repeatedly denying the reality of the economics!

It's not exactly consistent.
 
inbetween said:
And yet service growth has grown considerably since Brexit? Do you really view car manufacturing in the UK as a growing and viable industry? The UK car industry has been in slow decline in terms of relevance for over 30 years.

This decline in industry and exports goes far beyond Brexit. Did the people of the North East vote for Brexit because their manufacturing industries were doing so well? No, it was the opposite. Export growth was non-existent before Brexit so why are you expecting something different had we been in the EU? It makes no sense at all.

Had we been in the EU today then there's a very strong chance that our exports would be exactly the same as today, it literally would make no difference at all. The evidence of this is history and the fact that today the biggest exporter in Europe (Germany) is on its arse.

https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2Fc8c34c20-0084-11ef-aa3b-bbce3dd3f798-standard.png
Click to expand...
Before the Brexit vote we had record car production (1.6m) with expectations of improving further. It's now half that. It would be even less if Nissan hadn't had a billion pounds of government funding for Sunderland.
 
Vic said:
That's not a very good example of the impact of Brexit, given the damage to UK motor manufacturing since 2016.

16000 firms that used to export stuff to the EU no longer bother.
Click to expand...
What damage can you put down to Brexit? Honda left prior to Brexit, JLR had moved production to Nitra before Brexit, Stellantis closed Luton on the back of limited gov support none of which is Brexit related.
 
ganganvince said:
What damage can you put down to Brexit? Honda left prior to Brexit, JLR had moved production to Nitra before Brexit, Stellantis closed Luton on the back of limited gov support none of which is Brexit related.
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I don't think you can directly attribute any one decision entirely to Brexit, unless it's really specific like the loss of the European Medicines Agency. It's a general brake on trade and economic activity.

However, what you can say is that car manufacturing has had higher costs and more constraints (rules of origin) because of Brexit, so it would be very surprising if activity in the sector wasn't hit.

The figures seem to back that up; vehicle manufacturing in Europe as a whole has fallen, but by more in the UK.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I mean, it's tedious, but still worth repeating.

Your personal noddy analysis is at odds with literally every economic expert in existence.

Why should anyone take you seriously?

You say upthread that Brexit for you wasn't about the economics, but then go on repeatedly denying the reality of the economics!

It's not exactly consistent.
Click to expand...
When economists try to frame Brexit they try to look at the negatives because that's what they're asked to do. This is because of course there will be problems and hey it doesn't take a rocket scientist to show that. However economists are not industrialists, they only see the economy as an Excel spreadsheet.

The truck company near me was once British owned and now it's American owned. It once employed 15,000 people whereas today it employs 900 and yet year on year it makes more and more trucks. So tell me how does this situation benefit the 14,100 people who are now on the dole and do they even care if trade frictions increase or decrease?

These are the kind of arguments that are being put forwards on the UK car industry despite the fact that it's irrelevant except to a mere handful of people and the taxman. This fact is partially why the jobless North East voted for Brexit and you're telling these people that they should shutup and be happy? This type of trade does not work for people anymore, their livelihoods are gone, however to an economist obviously it's very nice indeed.

It's like arguing that the most critical thing to the UK economy is warehouse work at Amazon because that's exactly how an economist would see it. To them it would make considerable sense to join the EU, give Amazon massive tax breaks and that would do wonders for the economy....
 
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inbetween said:
When economists try to frame Brexit they try to look at the negatives because that's what they're asked to do.
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WTF? Bizarre assertion without any evidence whatever.


inbetween said:
The truck company near me was once British owned and now it's American owned. It once employed 15,000 people whereas today it employs 900 and yet year on year it makes more and more trucks. So tell me how does this situation benefit the 13,900 people who are now on the dole because do they even care?
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Producing more things with less people = increased productivity = increased wealth.

You're arguing that things are better when less efficient.

The whole problem with the UK economy is that it has very poor productivity compared to our competitors. And you want to make this worse.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
WTF? Bizarre assertion without any evidence whatever.




Producing more things with less people = increased productivity = increased wealth.

You're arguing that things are better when less efficient.

The whole problem with the UK economy is that it has very poor productivity compared to our competitors. And you want to make this worse.
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Tell that to the people of the North East who no longer have a livelihood. The current state of affairs is an American company does more with less people but then sends the spoils to Luxembourg, where do the people here fit in except for the privilege of being employed and paid very little?

Adaptation to globalism is a huge challenge and I think that's primarily why people voted to leave the EU. It's also why the socialists wanted to leave the EU. I mean do we in the UK really benefit when Cadbury's moved much of its production to Poland? The economists would meanwhile be very excited given the positive impact to Cadbury's margins...

UK productivity is also a very different argument and arguably years of austerity are far more responsible compared to removing ourselves from a trade bloc. It isn't like productivity is doing any better in Europe anyway, productivity in Germany is currently at the lowest it has been for 15 years.

Unfortunately the only thing that all of this shows is that Europe has a distinct lack of energy and above all else is failing to adapt to changes in the world. It just isn't doing enough in terms of what really matters and yet I'm told that I should be more interested in how much a Japanese UK built Toyota will cost to export to Romania....
 
JLR Nitra plant started to be built in 2014, Brazil 2012, China collaboration with Cherry 2012, collaboration with Magna Steyr 2015 worked on them all. Honda decision taken to close circa 2014 friends of mine managed the closure Stellantis moved van production to Ellesmere Port due to in response to zero emissions rules
 
inbetween said:
Tell that to the people of the North East who no longer have a livelihood. The current state of affairs is an American company does more with less people but then sends the spoils to Luxembourg, where do the people here fit in except for the privilege of being employed and paid very little?

Adaptation to globalism is a huge challenge and I think that's primarily why people voted to leave the EU. It's also why the socialists wanted to leave the EU. I mean do we in the UK really benefit when Cadbury's moved much of its production to Poland? The economists would meanwhile be very excited given the positive impact to Cadbury's margins...

UK productivity is also a very different argument and arguably years of austerity are far more responsible compared to removing ourselves from a trade bloc. It isn't like productivity is doing any better in Europe anyway, productivity in Germany is currently at the lowest it has been for 15 years.

Unfortunately the only thing that all of this shows is that Europe has a distinct lack of energy and above all else is failing to adapt to changes in the world. It just isn't doing enough in terms of what really matters and yet I'm told that I should be more interested in how much a Japanese UK built Toyota will cost to export to Romania....
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It's fascinating to read such an anti-Thatcherism view 40 years after the loss of so many metal-bashing industries - and 250 years since the Industrial Revolution.

But - in the Brexit thread - how does that square with criticising "Europe" for "failing to adapt to changes in the world"? It's doubly odd when the leading pro-Brexit economist (Minford) was openly saying Brexit would kill off manufacturing in the UK.

Spinning frames, threshing machines, computers, AI... ("Was Ned Ludd right? Discuss.)

The real question is "who benefits?" from technology. And with all this technology, what happened to more leisure time (for those still in work)?
 
A classic example of Brexit being all things to all persons.

Some people deluded themselves into thinking Brexit would revive manufacturing (and fishing). Some even thought all the foreigners and brown people would go 'home'.

The truth is life isn't that simple, and capitalism is even less simple.
 
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