US Tariff War

[1.618034]

Agree 100%

Already doing it.

Off FB, again, for about a month now. Not missing it.

Been off "X" for years but now won't even click on links to it.

Have cancelled our Prime membership, now buy direct from store websites or actually go to the shops! Imagine that!?

Ordered a garden hose off B&Q. Before I would've just looked on Amazon and not even given it a 2nd thought.

Stooped drinking bourbon and I love(d) bourbon!

I use an alternative browser without Google.

Greggs for on the road breakfasts now every time and I fucking love(d) a McMuffin!

They can fuck right off.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Already doing it.

Off FB, again, for about a month now. Not missing it.

Been off "X" for years but now won't even click on links to it.

Have cancelled our Prime membership, now buy direct from store websites or actually go to the shops! Imagine that!?

Ordered a garden hose off B&Q. Before I would've just looked on Amazon and not even given it a 2nd thought.

Stooped drinking bourbon and I love(d) bourbon!

I use an alternative browser without Google.

Greggs for on the road breakfasts now every time and I fucking love(d) a McMuffin!

They can fuck right off.

same.

Now just need millions of others to join in.

 

[threespires]

Already doing it.

Off FB, again, for about a month now. Not missing it.

Been off "X" for years but now won't even click on links to it.

Have cancelled our Prime membership, now buy direct from store websites or actually go to the shops! Imagine that!?

Ordered a garden hose off B&Q. Before I would've just looked on Amazon and not even given it a 2nd thought.

Stooped drinking bourbon and I love(d) bourbon!

I use an alternative browser without Google.

Greggs for on the road breakfasts now every time and I fucking love(d) a McMuffin!

They can fuck right off.

Thought sacking off Amazon would be quite inconvenient. In reality it's not a problem, just requires me to being a bit more organised which is no bad thing. Even saved money on a couple of things.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

No tariffs on Russia??

Tariffs on Ukraine though, who are also in the same peace negotiations.

Make it make sense???

 

[NPBlue]

Now Musk wants a zero tariff zone with Europe.

I want a zero MAGA incompetence zone.

There is no chance of that happening.

Carney, Starmer, Macron and Scholz are in discussions and actively seeking ways Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan can join the EU single market and customs union.

Starmer gave a hint of that in his message about the world changing today.

We have to protect ourselves, and the further we all collectively move away from the USA the better it will be.

 

[Kompany Car]

Tariffs are inflationary, that’s not conducive to lower interest rates.

Correct under normal circumstances, but if the US economy enters a deep recession, then you have no choice but to cut interest rates or risk economic collapse. Bottom line regardless of the price, if nobody is spending money, you dont have an economy. Its worth noting that unlike the UK, the Fed has targets around not only inflation but employment.

 

[metalblue]

Correct under normal circumstances, but if the US economy enters a deep recession, then you have no choice but to cut interest rates or risk economic collapse. Bottom line regardless of the price, if nobody is spending money, you dont have an economy. Its worth noting that unlike the UK, the Fed has targets around not only inflation but employment.

Right. But do you think that’s Trumps play? To manufacture a recession - which economists are giving what a 50/50 chance? So even if a recession happened how deep would it really be for the US?

IMHO it’s far less complicate than that, he wants to bring jobs back manufacturing to the rust belt. His core support and he might succeed to some degree, his last go on this ride produced some success and we humans default to doing the same thing repeatedly if it didn’t kill us the last time we did it.

The problem isn’t the policy per se, it’s the unsophisticated scattergun nature of it that has shocked markets - he’s in far too much of a rush driven by being far too certain in his approach. The US got very rich off selling cheaply made product - and bizarrely (for all his posturing) - if this works (and its a big if given how he’s gone about it) it’s going to redistribute some of that wealth in to the hands of the workers. A bit socialist really.

I do wonder how many on here would be supportive if our government took a similar approach to re-shoring manufacturing jobs? After all the EU is nothing but a protectionist racket and folk seem to love that.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Right. But do you think that’s Trumps play? To manufacture a recession - which economists are giving what a 50/50 chance? So even if a recession happened how deep would it really be for the US?

IMHO it’s far less complicate than that, he wants to bring jobs back manufacturing to the rust belt. His core support and he might succeed to some degree, his last go on this ride produced some success and we humans default to doing the same thing repeatedly if it didn’t kill us the last time we did it.

The problem isn’t the policy per se, it’s the unsophisticated scattergun nature of it that has shocked markets - he’s in far too much of a rush driven by being far too certain in his approach. The US got very rich off selling cheaply made product - and bizarrely (for all his posturing) - if this works (and its a big if given how he’s gone about it) it’s going to redistribute some of that wealth in to the hands of the workers. A bit socialist really.

I do wonder how many on here would be supportive if our government took a similar approach to re-shoring manufacturing jobs? After all the EU is nothing but a protectionist racket and folk seem to love that.

Question is though if it happens in America or tried it here, does your average person aspire to work in a factory or assembly line? The cost of living going up continuously with fuel bills, food etc is working in a factory going to give you a disposable income to live comfortably? And ultimately will it actually create the jobs that Trump believes will happen off the back of it? Not when you have automation and AI coming into place, the conditions for Trump creating what he wants to create may have worked in his first term. The world is a different place now with tech that is available that requires less humans involved.

 

[metalblue]

Question is though if it happens in America or tried it here, does your average person aspire to work in a factory or assembly line? The cost of living going up continuously with fuel bills, food etc is working in a factory going to give you a disposable income to live comfortably? And ultimately will it actually create the jobs that Trump believes will happen off the back of it? Not when you have automation and AI coming into place, the conditions for Trump creating what he wants to create may have worked in his first term. The world is a different place now with tech that is available that requires less humans involved.

Very fair questions and points

 

[Kompany Car]

Right. But do you think that’s Trumps play? To manufacture a recession - which economists are giving what a 50/50 chance? So even if a recession happened how deep would it really be for the US?

IMHO it’s far less complicate than that, he wants to bring jobs back manufacturing to the rust belt. His core support and he might succeed to some degree, his last go on this ride produced some success and we humans default to doing the same thing repeatedly if it didn’t kill us the last time we did it.

The problem isn’t the policy per se, it’s the unsophisticated scattergun nature of it that has shocked markets - he’s in far too much of a rush driven by being far too certain in his approach. The US got very rich off selling cheaply made product - and bizarrely (for all his posturing) - if this works (and its a big if given how he’s gone about it) it’s going to redistribute some of that wealth in to the hands of the workers. A bit socialist really.

I do wonder how many on here would be supportive if our government took a similar approach to re-shoring manufacturing jobs? After all the EU is nothing but a protectionist racket and folk seem to love that.

If you are saying that Trump wants to be some kind of King of the Rednecks, with a theme tune by Kid Rock in the background I fully agree, he's pretty much achieved that already, however I would not assume he's doing it in a benevolent manner.

What's in it for Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg etc. As I said before its a game. Trade barriers disappear, no more law suits or tax threats to big tech companies, they control all the data and use it as they see fit on a global scale. American industry uses the data and sells to the rest of the world in an unrestricted manner, meanwhile whilst this has time to sort itself out the highly asset rich become wealthier by buying in early to a later boom, all funded by fed quantitative easing and lowering of interest rates to prevent a bad recession.

The outturn is Trump and his buddies make shit loads of money and the US economy eventually becomes stronger as its businesses can act with impunity across international boundaries, to standards set by the US.

 

[TonyM]

same.

Now just need millions of others to join in.

But there'll be no room in Greggs.

 

[TonyM]

Right. But do you think that’s Trumps play? To manufacture a recession - which economists are giving what a 50/50 chance? So even if a recession happened how deep would it really be for the US?

IMHO it’s far less complicate than that, he wants to bring jobs back manufacturing to the rust belt. His core support and he might succeed to some degree, his last go on this ride produced some success and we humans default to doing the same thing repeatedly if it didn’t kill us the last time we did it.

The problem isn’t the policy per se, it’s the unsophisticated scattergun nature of it that has shocked markets - he’s in far too much of a rush driven by being far too certain in his approach. The US got very rich off selling cheaply made product - and bizarrely (for all his posturing) - if this works (and its a big if given how he’s gone about it) it’s going to redistribute some of that wealth in to the hands of the workers. A bit socialist really.

I do wonder how many on here would be supportive if our government took a similar approach to re-shoring manufacturing jobs? After all the EU is nothing but a protectionist racket and folk seem to love that.

You say protectionist racket but I'd see it as a protection for small countries so that the big don't racketeer them.

Every country is generally as strong as the size of its population and resources. By pooling together Europe can act as one big country.

I used to have issues with some of tge federalisation of the EU but now I'm all for more as long as we remain a largely liberal society.

We need to protect ourselves from the regulation less and crude nature of the other big countries.

 

[TonyM]

There is no chance of that happening.

Carney, Starmer, Macron and Scholz are in discussions and actively seeking ways Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan can join the EU single market and customs union.

Starmer gave a hint of that in his message about the world changing today.

We have to protect ourselves, and the further we all collectively move away from the USA the better it will be.

I'd be for expanding Europe's market globally as long as there is mutual respect for the regulations that make sense.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Right. But do you think that’s Trumps play? To manufacture a recession - which economists are giving what a 50/50 chance? So even if a recession happened how deep would it really be for the US?

IMHO it’s far less complicate than that, he wants to bring jobs back manufacturing to the rust belt. His core support and he might succeed to some degree, his last go on this ride produced some success and we humans default to doing the same thing repeatedly if it didn’t kill us the last time we did it.

The problem isn’t the policy per se, it’s the unsophisticated scattergun nature of it that has shocked markets - he’s in far too much of a rush driven by being far too certain in his approach. The US got very rich off selling cheaply made product - and bizarrely (for all his posturing) - if this works (and its a big if given how he’s gone about it) it’s going to redistribute some of that wealth in to the hands of the workers. A bit socialist really.

I do wonder how many on here would be supportive if our government took a similar approach to re-shoring manufacturing jobs? After all the EU is nothing but a protectionist racket and folk seem to love that.

Call me a cynic but there's a huge chance Trump and Musk just bought a load of put options on the markets and decided to crash the market to get rich then buy a load of shares and call options to get even richer again. That's the issue when you let millionaire business people run a country. You can't trust the fuckers

 

[Norbert D]

Trump is a fucking moron with no clue whatsoever how the global economy is meshed and when a lunatic blows up a huge part of it the whole system is rocked to its foundations. America must be punished for allowing this to happen and that means the grown up nations must push to remove the dollar as the global reserve currency. The Euro is the obvious candidate to replace the dollar, hopefully that can be done with haste and completely screw the yanks who’s huge debt is only sustainable due to the status of the dollar.

 

[metalblue]

You say protectionist racket but I'd see it as a protection for small countries so that the big don't racketeer them.

Every country is generally as strong as the size of its population and resources. By pooling together Europe can act as one big country.

I used to have issues with some of tge federalisation of the EU but now I'm all for more as long as we remain a largely liberal society.

We need to protect ourselves from the regulation less and crude nature of the other big countries.

It wasn’t meant as a criticism but rather an observation that the EU use tariffs to protect their own internal markets. They additionally use regulations to ensure standards and keep a sort of level playing field. They’re big enough to be able to do so and there is nothing wrong with it in principle - similarly there is nothing wrong in principle with what Trump is doing…it’s the execution thus far that is wrong IMHO.

 

[metalblue]

If you are saying that Trump wants to be some kind of King of the Rednecks, with a theme tune by Kid Rock in the background I fully agree, he's pretty much achieved that already, however I would not assume he's doing it in a benevolent manner.

What's in it for Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg etc. As I said before its a game. Trade barriers disappear, no more law suits or tax threats to big tech companies, they control all the data and use it as they see fit on a global scale. American industry uses the data and sells to the rest of the world in an unrestricted manner, meanwhile whilst this has time to sort itself out the highly asset rich become wealthier by buying in early to a later boom, all funded by fed quantitative easing and lowering of interest rates to prevent a bad recession.

The outturn is Trump and his buddies make shit loads of money and the US economy eventually becomes stronger as its businesses can act with impunity across international boundaries, to standards set by the US.

For me it’s his ego that drives him but guessing what motivates Trump is a road laden with guesswork so history may well prove you right mate.

 

[KS55]

Tariffs are inflationary, that’s not conducive to lower interest rates.

It’s more the lack of economic activity that may force reductions in interest rates.
Stagflation.

 

[KS55]

Question is though if it happens in America or tried it here, does your average person aspire to work in a factory or assembly line? The cost of living going up continuously with fuel bills, food etc is working in a factory going to give you a disposable income to live comfortably? And ultimately will it actually create the jobs that Trump believes will happen off the back of it? Not when you have automation and AI coming into place, the conditions for Trump creating what he wants to create may have worked in his first term. The world is a different place now with tech that is available that requires less humans involved.

There is just no way that manufacturing employment will come back to USA in meaningful numbers as a result of tariffs. Certainly not in the short/ medium term. The structure of the market as you describe it will not bend to Trump’s will.

 

[KS55]

It wasn’t meant as a criticism but rather an observation that the EU use tariffs to protect their own internal markets. They additionally use regulations to ensure standards and keep a sort of level playing field. They’re big enough to be able to do so and there is nothing wrong with it in principle - similarly there is nothing wrong in principle with what Trump is doing…it’s the execution thus far that is wrong IMHO.

EU non tariff barriers are strong. Fortress Europe, for example, allows an amount of Indian rice on a free basis then BOOM the block comes down.