The Labour Government

SkyBlueFlux said:
There is an enormous number of high earners who are currently ensuring they earn <£100k per year by stacking their pensions so that they don’t lose child tax credits and get caught in the 60% marginal bracket. Even worse there are people out there literally avoiding getting promoted, or going down to 3-4 days per week.

This takes money out of the economy and locks it up somewhere with tax relief that won’t be accessed for decades.

Some might think this is a small issue but this is the most economically productive 10% of our workforce and they contribute over a third of our income tax revenue.

It’s actually insane to me this hasn’t been fixed way sooner - instead we sit and wonder why our productivity is so bad! Most jobs are underpaid, and the ones that aren’t are incentivised to make people want to be paid less. It’s fucking bonkers. And more and more people every year are crossing into that threshold because of inflation and fiscal drag.

It was negligent that the Tories didn’t fix it. If Labour also don’t fix it either then we might as well just give up because this is one of the most obvious tax policy problems a government has ever been faced with. If they don’t fix this, then they’re not going to be fixing anything else.
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I agree. One of my biggest bug bears is people getting tax relief on pensions with no intention of actually using that pension for the reason it is intended ie. to spend in old age. I have 2 family members who are doing just that. When is it reasonable to expect that money to be injected back in?
 
BridgyDids said:
Well, if Brexit was the problem, and has not been fixed by then, then it would need raising and sorting surely?

Also, what is the correct time period to absolve Brexit of any responsibility for the weakening economy? 2 years? 6 months? Never?
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It's a permanent effect.
 
hampshireblue said:
You really are narrow minded sometimes. I posted the AI bit, not to prove you right( although we know you always think you are, or BKB wouldn't have caught on), but to show how you cherry pick. If I wanted to show the OBR to be good. I wouldn't have bothered with the "not so good" bits. You, however pick one item and try to run with that as proof they are crap across the board, which appears to be not the case.

If you had said the OBR is generally OK with forecasting but poor on productivity forecasting, then you get some credibiity and context into the discussion, but no.

But if it makes you feel good about yourself coming from a totally non-balanced starting point, crack on, I'm glad you're glad.

I'm just looking for your scathing posts about forecasters getting inflation wrong by 0.2% over the period of a single month.

Anything constructive to say on putting things right?
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My post related to the OBR’s productivity forecasts because that’s the issue being discussed, namely how the OBR believe Brexit has impaired productivity, how this has hampered GDP growth and in turn reduced tax receipts.

It’s also relevant given that Reeves is currently attempting to paint the imminent, further downgrade to the OBR’s productivity forecasts as a surprise, and something that she couldn’t have accounted for when she chose to push borrowing dramatically higher in her Budget last October. Unfortunately the evidence strongly suggests that a productivity downgrade is an ongoing risk - more likely than not, in fact - and that this factor really should have tempered her plans last year. Given the central importance of productivity growth to the fiscal projections overall, it was a major gamble from Reeves and unfortunately it has backfired in fairly short order.

At no point did I question the OBR’s competence in other areas, or indeed the value of having the OBR. It’s an argument purely of your own making, so I’ll leave you to argue that one with yourself if that’s ok.
 
It's perhaps the least surprising news of the year so far...

A man deported in the Governments flagship "one in, one out" scheme has returned to the UK by small boat.
 
www.theguardian.com

Man sent to France under ‘one in, one out’ scheme returns to UK on small boat

Exclusive: Asylum seeker says he made second crossing because he did not feel safe in France
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Honestly think the government tied itself up in knots going relentlessly after last government and the Rwanda scheme. Don't think any party actually has any idea and yet all have made it their centerpiece when making policy.
 
Brewster's millions said:
My post related to the OBR’s productivity forecasts because that’s the issue being discussed, namely how the OBR believe Brexit has impaired productivity, how this has hampered GDP growth and in turn reduced tax receipts.

It’s also relevant given that Reeves is currently attempting to paint the imminent, further downgrade to the OBR’s productivity forecasts as a surprise, and something that she couldn’t have accounted for when she chose to push borrowing dramatically higher in her Budget last October. Unfortunately the evidence strongly suggests that a productivity downgrade is an ongoing risk - more likely than not, in fact - and that this factor really should have tempered her plans last year. Given the central importance of productivity growth to the fiscal projections overall, it was a major gamble from Reeves and unfortunately it has backfired in fairly short order.

At no point did I question the OBR’s competence in other areas, or indeed the value of having the OBR. It’s an argument purely of your own making, so I’ll leave you to argue that one with yourself if that’s ok.
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It's only what is being discussed because you raised it FFS. You piled in and decided to make it about the OBR-no one else mentioned them.

If you saying the following:


"Back in November 2011 the OBR expected cumulative labour productivity growth of 9.5% over the next five years, and in actual fact productivity increased by about 1% over that period. A huge forecast error, by anyone’s standards. And yet you believe that their estimate around how Brexit might impact UK productivity - which at 1.4%pts constitutes a mere fraction of their earlier forecast errors - is definitely correct and the root cause of the UK’s fiscal problems."


is not raising doubt about the OBR I don't know what is.


No one was "arguing" until you joined in.

But as usual BKB.
 
hampshireblue said:
It's only what is being discussed because you raised it FFS. You piled in and decided to make it about the OBR-no one else mentioned them.

If you saying the following:


"Back in November 2011 the OBR expected cumulative labour productivity growth of 9.5% over the next five years, and in actual fact productivity increased by about 1% over that period. A huge forecast error, by anyone’s standards. And yet you believe that their estimate around how Brexit might impact UK productivity - which at 1.4%pts constitutes a mere fraction of their earlier forecast errors - is definitely correct and the root cause of the UK’s fiscal problems."


is not raising doubt about the OBR I don't know what is.


No one was "arguing" until you joined in.

But as usual BKB.
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You stated that the apparent £40bn per annum reduction in tax revenues due to Brexit - a figure based on an OBR estimate - was an unavoidable fact. So, sit down for this one, that’s why the OBR was discussed.

Not only have you ended up arguing with yourself on this one, you’ve also ended up having an argument about something that you didn’t even know you were arguing about.

There’s no flies on you, is there?
 
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Brewster's millions said:
You stated that the apparent £40bn per annum reduction in tax revenues due to Brexit - a figure based on an OBR estimate - was an unavoidable fact. So, sit down for this one, that’s why the OBR was discussed.

Not only have you ended up arguing with yourself on this one, you’ve also ended up having an argument about something that you didn’t even know you were arguing about.

There’s no flies on you, is there?
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BKB the psychologist strikes!!

What a shame for you the OBR wasn't the only organisation to come up with the same figure. TTFN
 
mosssideblue said:
And will be kicked out again
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I’m interested to see what his background is and why he came back. Surely he couldn’t afford another crossing by the smugglers so is he expected to pay it off by working for some ‘unsavories’ or pay off his passage when he gains employment?

Understanding these types of reasons can lead to countermeasures.
 
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NPBlue said:
It is depressing, but it isn't her fault.

Brexit has reduced tax revenues by £40B a year, and who's fault is that? The same people that lied through their teeth to achieve it for their own financial gain, and now rail against her for having to deal with the situation they created.
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She knew about Brexit before becoming chancellor so she is being disingenuous by making out this is something entirely new to her. I get it though, it’s politics. I don’t want to raise taxes but it’s all the fault of them nasty reform folk who wanted it and the nasty Tory folk who allowed the referendum to happen. None of this is my fault.
 
Brexit has been the elephant in the room that no one (that is, no mainstream politician) dared to bring up until now.

Reality has finally forced it back into polite conversation, and about fucking time too. Only a fool would blame Brexit for all our economic problems. But only another fool would deny that it has made a considerable contribution to the mess. Moreover, the other major factors (Covid, the Ukraine war, the chimp in the White House) are wholly (or almost wholly) beyond the control of any UK government. Rather like the weather, they have to be endured.
 
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
 
Kush45 said:
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
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Interesting that the enquiry the Tories wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.

After their chosen MP (Johnson) had complained about the malarkey of £60m spaffed up the wall on investigating historic abuse (said during the previous inquiry).

(There's a separate thread for this.)
 
Kush45 said:
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
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I’m not a labour fan and never have been but I don’t think they’re to blame for that this time round. I wouldn’t take the words of some of the victims as being representative of all, particularly with some of the things they’re criticising.

The politics of it aren’t primarily what some people are saying it is.
 
The Future’s Blue! said:
I’m interested to see what his background is and why he came back. Surely he couldn’t afford another crossing by the smugglers so is he expected to pay it off by working for some ‘unsavories’ or pay off his passage when he gains employment?

Understanding these types of reasons can lead to countermeasures.
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Apparently back because they were being put into slavery in Paris so fled here for their own safety….
 
Vic said:
Interesting that the enquiry the Tories wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.

After their chosen MP (Johnson) had complained about the malarkey of £60m spaffed up the wall on investigating historic abuse (said during the previous inquiry).

(There's a separate thread for this.)
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As there is for deflecting away.from the current govt onto the previous ones.
 
Kush45 said:
Interesting that the enquiry Labour never wanted to have is collapsing before it's even begun.
Rape gangs getting swept under the carpet again. Victims being made to feel worthless all over again.
Shocking
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Jess has the full confidence of the PM so fear not as we know how that always ends don’t we?
 
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