Newcastle United (A) - Sat 22nd Nov, 17:30 | PL | Pre-Match Thread

Match Result Prediction?

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hard game but play like we did int he first half vs the scousers we will have a more than decent chance of beating them

For me the same starting 11 vs the scousers should start the game baring any injuries.

The new lad they have upfront looks pretty decent so we will have to be wary of him and Antony Gordon seems to cause us issues when we play them there.

Their crowd will be right up for it.
 
alexmcity said:
We may be the best in the world, play shit and lose at Newcastle.

Before we won 14 games in a row for the title in 2019, we put in a terrible performance at Newcastle and lost 2:1. It looked like we lost the title that night, as Liverpool looked very strong back then. But they couldn't beat Leicester the next day, then drew with W Ham, United and Everton. 6 weeks after our loss at Newcastle we were top of the table and stayed there till the end.

In short, one game shows little. We may lose by 2-3 goals and win the title or win by 5 goals, get giddy and win fuck all.

The tendency since United in September is very good. If we avoid an injury crisis, we'll get better and play some fantastic stuff.
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I’m not using a data set of 1. The next game is game 12. 12 is an interesting number in the PL. From game 1 the predictiveness of the final table increases markedly until after game 12 when it levels right out until around game 30 when it climbs fast again as you would imagine. I want to see that 12th game and I’m not just looking at City but how Arsenal are also doing. We could be brilliant but it doesn’t count for much if Arsenal look better.

I already know City are good but right now, if I had to bet I’d say 1.Arsenal 2. City. The team that wins the PL must have a fantastic mentality. Newcastle away is a great test for the 12th game.

It still doesn’t prove a great deal because there are so many games left as you point out, but we are all guessing here based on what we have seen. My guess will be a little better after the next round of games.

I don’t doubt City or Pep even when we couldn’t buy a win a season ago.
 
Blue Hefner said:
This is a big game.
A draw is fine, keeps the decent run going
A win - play time is over for Arsenal. The Blues are back in town
A loss - it’s Villa away all over again and it’s the sort of result a team finishing 3rd gets

I think we can do it. But it’s dark, it’s Newcastle away, it’s stinks of some defender of theirs(see Cash V Villa) scoring early ish then us trying to break them down

Head says we should win, 2-0 or more than that
The City heart of mine hasn’t recovered from or poor away form V decent teams. That says 1-0 Newcastle

So, I’ll go for 1-1. Liverpool will likely win as will Arsenal so it’s as you were but we’ve had a good run and got another tricky away out the way
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No Dan Burn though….
 
Cobwebcat said:
I’m not using a data set of 1. The next game is game 12. 12 is an interesting number in the PL. From game 1 the predictiveness of the final table increases markedly until after game 12 when it levels right out until around game 30 when it climbs fast again as you would imagine. I want to see that 12th game and I’m not just looking at City but how Arsenal are also doing. We could be brilliant but it doesn’t count for much if Arsenal look better.

I already know City are good but right now, if I had to bet I’d say 1.Arsenal 2. City. The team that wins the PL must have a fantastic mentality. Newcastle away is a great test for the 12th game.

It still doesn’t prove a great deal because there are so many games left as you point out, but we are all guessing here based on what we have seen. My guess will be a little better after the next round of games.

I don’t doubt City or Pep even when we couldn’t buy a win a season ago.
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In 20/21, City were midtable after 12 games (on 20 pts). Spurs were 1st. By the 30th game we had virtually won the league, Spurs finished 7th.

Those averages you refer to are interesting and have some predictive value. Thanks for sharing, I like such stuff. But Pep's City tend to be better in the 2nd half of the season, which for me has more weight than average tendencies concerning other teams.

We are a work in progress and we are improving. If we can get Rodri back in the team fully fit, we are likely to be quite good. Not sure that would be enough to win the league, but if we are within 5 pts off the top in February, it's not unlikely to happen.
 
alexmcity said:
In 20/21, City were midtable after 12 games (on 20 pts). Spurs were 1st. By the 30th game we had virtually won the league, Spurs finished 7th.

Those averages you refer to are interesting and have some predictive value. Thanks for sharing, I like such stuff. But Pep's City tend to be better in the 2nd half of the season, which for me has more weight than average tendencies concerning other teams.

We are a work in progress and we are improving. If we can get Rodri back in the team fully fit, we are likely to be quite good. Not sure that would be enough to win the league, but if we are within 5 pts off the top in February, it's not unlikely to happen.
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Agree but Arsenal are a concern…they don’t have any underlying stats that indicate they are likely to regress…yet!
 
BringBackSwales said:
Is that the same Livramento that has got as many league assists and 2 less league goals in 22/23 23/24 24/25 and 25/26 combined as Nico O’Reilly has got in 13 league starts? The one many in here wanted to sign for more than £80m in the summer? Scary
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On current form O'Reilly is superior to Livramento on most aspects of the game. If Nico continues to improve he will at least reach the levels of Walker.
 
Blue Hefner said:
This is a big game.
A draw is fine, keeps the decent run going
A win - play time is over for Arsenal. The Blues are back in town
A loss - it’s Villa away all over again and it’s the sort of result a team finishing 3rd gets

I think we can do it. But it’s dark, it’s Newcastle away, it’s stinks of some defender of theirs(see Cash V Villa) scoring early ish then us trying to break them down

Head says we should win, 2-0 or more than that
The City heart of mine hasn’t recovered from or poor away form V decent teams. That says 1-0 Newcastle

So, I’ll go for 1-1. Liverpool will likely win as will Arsenal so it’s as you were but we’ve had a good run and got another tricky away out the way
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No draw is fine if you want the title !

Whilst we're busy settling for a draw, Arsenal will steam even further ahead by winning ... just as they did when they won at Newcastle !!
 
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Eaststander1 said:
No draw is fine if you want the title !

Whilst we're buys settling for draws Arsenal will steam even further ahead by winning ... just as they did when they won at Newcastle !!
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This will be the only the 12th game of the season. A draw here keeps the unbeaten run going and won’t be the end of the world - 6 weeks ago people were talking about Liverpool steam rolling the league.

Win, lose or draw, let’s see where we are when we play Chelsea at home
 
Blue Hefner said:
This will be the only the 12th game of the season. A draw here keeps the unbeaten run going and won’t be the end of the world - 6 weeks ago people were talking about Liverpool steam rolling the league.

Win, lose or draw, let’s see where we are when we play Chelsea at home
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It will only be the 12th game yes, but in my opinion, if you seriously want the title, a team should only entertain a draw if it has actually run out of time in a match to get a winning goal .... its only wins that delivers the title, and these days a team needs AT LEAST 28 of them!
 
Eaststander1 said:
It will only be the 12th game yes, but in my opinion, if you seriously want the title, a team should only entertain a draw if it has actually run out of time in a match to get a winning goal .... its only wins that delivers the title !
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I agree

Only 12th game, but we have lost a quarter of those games already.

Will be a third if we do lose against Newcastle.

If we want to win the league we have to be beating Newcastle away. Like Arsenal did.
 
Gorbachev said:
I agree

Only 12th game, but we have lost a quarter of those games already.

Will be a third if we do lose against Newcastle.

If we want to win the league we have to be beating Newcastle away. Like Arsenal did.
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Arsenal couldn’t even manage a home win against City….
 
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