Will we win the league this season?

ufo said:
Pep is creating a sleeping giant quietly under the radar .Hes building a new pep style hybrid team mixed with defensive stability giving more priority then before .It’ll take time , patient is key and watch this bulldozer rampage football world .
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We’ve conceded more goals per game in the PL this season so far than any of our previous title wins under Pep, and even than two of our non-title wins. We’re only 7 goals away from conceding what we conceded in the entire season in 2018-19 (23).

2016-17: 1.03 goals conceded per game (39 in 38 games)
2017–18: 0.71 gcpg (27)
2018-19: 0.61 gcpg (23)
2019-20: 0.92 gcpg (35)
2020-21: 0.84 gcpg (32)
2021-22: 0.68 gcpg (26)
2022-23: 0.87 gcpg (33)
2023-24: 0.89 gcpg (34)
2024-25: 1.16 gcpg (44)
2025-26, so far: 1.07 gcpg (16 in 15 games, on for about 40 or 41 goals conceded at this rate)

…with only last season’s injury ravaged season having a higher gcpg than this season so far. And last season Rodri missed 35 PL games with no cover for him for the first 22 of those (until Nico started against Newcastle), Aké missed 28 PL games, Stones missed 27 PL games, Ederson missed 12 PL games, Akanji missed 12 PL games, Dias missed 11 PL games, there were games where Ederson Stones Aké Dias Akanji and Rodri were all out injured at the same time, and Walker’s head went and we lost our captain for half the season.

We’ve got a lot of improving to do defensively, and that’s mainly not the back four for me. Midfield and wings have been poor defensively for us this season. Haaland is the only effective presser, he’s often having to corral his teammates (often shouting and waving at some players) to press. At times in midweek at Madrid, Nico and the back four were left horribly exposed to attacks with our midfield and wings often in no man’s land between pressing and defending deeper, often doing neither. And I think that’s been a problem all season so far.

Our defending from the front, or lack of it, causes a lot of our goals conceded. It’s one of the main reason we are currently losing on average just short of a point a game.

As long as we outscore the opposition, it’s not a problem, but there are times where it does become a problem because we won’t just easily outscore everyone.
 
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.db. said:
We’ve conceded more goals per game in the PL this season so far than any of our previous title wins under Pep, and even than two of our non-title wins. We’re only 7 goals away from conceding what we conceded in the entire season in 2018-19 (23).

2016-17: 1.03 goals conceded per game
2017–18: 0.71 gcpg
2018-19: 0.61 gcpg
2019-20: 0.92 gcpg
2020-21: 0.84 gcpg
2021-22: 0.68 gcpg
2022-23: 0.87 gcpg
2023-24: 0.89 gcpg
2024-25: 1.16 gcpg
2025-26, so far: 1.07 gcpg

…with only last season’s injury ravaged season having a higher gcpg than this season so far. And last season Rodri missed 35 PL games with no cover for him for the first 22 of those (until Nico started against Newcastle), Aké missed 28 PL games, Stones missed 27 PL games, Ederson missed 12 PL games, Akanji missed 12 PL games, Dias missed 11 PL games, there were games where Ederson Stones Aké Dias Akanji and Rodri were all out injured at the same time, and Walker’s head went and we lost our captain for half the season.

We’ve got a lot of improving to do defensively, and that’s mainly not the back four for me. Midfield and wings have been poor defensively for us this season. Haaland is the only effective presser, he’s often having to corral his teammates (often shouting and waving at Doku) to press. At times in midweek at Madrid, Nico and the back four were left horribly exposed to attacks.
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That Fulham game is distorting the picture. We were 4 goals up, got complacent, plus made some subs, etc.

By the end of the season we are likely to be around 0.90 gcpg or better (as we were before Fulham).
 
alexmcity said:
That Fulham game is distorting the picture. We were 4 goals up, got complacent, plus made some subs, etc.

By the end of the season we are likely to be around 0.90 gcpg or better (as we were before Fulham).
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That’s true, but that often happens across many seasons.

In our last title win in 2023-24 we kept 13 clean sheets in a season we conceded 34 goals, but conceded 4 goals in a 4-4 draw at Chelsea and 3 in goals in a 3-3 draw at home to Spurs; that’s 7 of our 34 goals - almost 21% - in just 2 games.

But you still view it across the average for the season because those sort of results (and Fulham last week) do happen to teams now and again in a season
 
.db. said:
That’s true, but that often happens across many seasons.

In our last title win in 2023-24 we kept 13 clean sheets in a season we conceded 34 goals, but conceded 4 goals in a 4-4 draw at Chelsea and 3 in goals in a 3-3 draw at home to Spurs; that’s 7 of our 34 goals - almost 21% - in just 2 games.

But you still view it across the average for the season because those sort of results (and Fulham last week) do happen to teams now and again in a season
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That is why using median goals per game is better, but no one does.

Maybe just use the geometric mean.
 
.db. said:
That’s true, but that often happens across many seasons.

In our last title win in 2023-24 we kept 13 clean sheets in a season we conceded 34 goals, but conceded 4 goals in a 4-4 draw at Chelsea and 3 in goals in a 3-3 draw at home to Spurs; that’s 7 of our 34 goals - almost 21% - in just 2 games.

But you still view it across the average for the season because those sort of results (and Fulham last week) do happen to teams now and again in a season
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I agree that such results happen. But I think that because the Fulham game was played recently it weighs a lot. By the end of the season its overall effect will be weaker. My expectation is that we are going to concede around 33 goals. That is, we are likely to improve in the 2nd half of the season.

Note that in the first 3 games we played without Donna, Gvardiol and O'Reilly, and we have played mostly without Rodri. So there's room for improvement.

We have conceded 12 goals in the last 12 league games, including the shitshow at Fulham.
 
.db. said:
We’ve conceded more goals per game in the PL this season so far than any of our previous title wins under Pep, and even than two of our non-title wins. We’re only 7 goals away from conceding what we conceded in the entire season in 2018-19 (23).

2016-17: 1.03 goals conceded per game (39 in 38 games)
2017–18: 0.71 gcpg (27)
2018-19: 0.61 gcpg (23)
2019-20: 0.92 gcpg (35)
2020-21: 0.84 gcpg (32)
2021-22: 0.68 gcpg (26)
2022-23: 0.87 gcpg (33)
2023-24: 0.89 gcpg (34)
2024-25: 1.16 gcpg (44)
2025-26, so far: 1.07 gcpg (16 in 15 games, on for about 40 or 41 goals conceded at this rate)

…with only last season’s injury ravaged season having a higher gcpg than this season so far. And last season Rodri missed 35 PL games with no cover for him for the first 22 of those (until Nico started against Newcastle), Aké missed 28 PL games, Stones missed 27 PL games, Ederson missed 12 PL games, Akanji missed 12 PL games, Dias missed 11 PL games, there were games where Ederson Stones Aké Dias Akanji and Rodri were all out injured at the same time, and Walker’s head went and we lost our captain for half the season.

We’ve got a lot of improving to do defensively, and that’s mainly not the back four for me. Midfield and wings have been poor defensively for us this season. Haaland is the only effective presser, he’s often having to corral his teammates (often shouting and waving at some players) to press. At times in midweek at Madrid, Nico and the back four were left horribly exposed to attacks with our midfield and wings often in no man’s land between pressing and defending deeper, often doing neither. And I think that’s been a problem all season so far.

Our defending from the front, or lack of it, causes a lot of our goals conceded. It’s one of the main reason we are currently losing on average just short of a point a game.

As long as we outscore the opposition, it’s not a problem, but there are times where it does become a problem because we won’t just easily outscore everyone.
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Pep is venturing in to unknown world and improvising as he goes . This system is new to him and everyone.This is not a typical pep’s team per se that’s why we need patience.
He wants balance back and front not just defend or possession , he doesn’t want a team of 11 footballers, he wants 11 shape shifters. That’s a huge task in hand and requires everyone tuned to specific frequencies.Don’t expect clean sheet and 1-0 or 7-0 but boys are starting to grasps a bit and almost 75% there.
 
ufo said:
Pep is venturing in to unknown world and improvising as he goes . This system is new to him and everyone.This is not a typical pep’s team per se that’s why we need patience.
He wants balance back and front not just defend or possession , he doesn’t want a team of 11 footballers, he wants 11 shape shifters. That’s a huge task in hand and requires everyone tuned to specific frequencies.Don’t expect clean sheet and 1-0 or 7-0 but boys are starting to grasps a bit and almost 75% there.
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A win here today will be a massive statement I think Cmon City
 
alexmcity said:
Half of those PL teams were poor in Europe. The quality of the bottom half teams in the PL back then was far worse than it is now.

Arsenal have had many injuries so far, and City are in transition and without Rodri. Wouldn't be surprised if both teams were much better in the 2nd half of the season, perhaps Liverpool too.

Those generalisations about the quality of the top teams based on 15 games are premature. I'm sure many on here didn't think much about the Treble winners before mid February 2023. Actually, many thought the squad lacked quality lol.
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The league as a whole is better now mate, I agree. The mid-table is stronger. However the quality of player at the top is poorer and a reason why it is more competitive now.

This league had the likes Luis Suarez, Aguero, Eden Hazard, David Silva, KDB, Yaya, Mahrez, Salah, Mane, Diego Costa, Rooney, Harry Kane, Son, Sanchez, Fabregas just to name a few all plying their trade at the top end of the PL 5-10 years ago.

Very few of that quality in the league now at the top end.

And in regards to the PL teams being poor in Europe back then. This was despite us having all that quality above, but the rest of Europe had the likes of Robben, Lewandowski, Iniesta, Ronaldo, Messi, Busquets, Neymar, Pirlo, Tevez, Kroos, Modric, Benzema, Schweinsteiger, Muller, Cavani, Falcao, Bale, Marco Reus, Ibra, Lahm, Alonso.

This is just to name a few names. Every single one of those players gets into every team in Europe right now.

The level at the top end is significantly poorer.
 
Danny Tiatto said:
Is there any one in this thread who is big enough to admit that they may have jumped to an early conclusion in regards to…

A. Overrating Arsenal
B. Underrating us
C. Both A & B
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I dont know how many times Arsenal have to blow the 2nd half of the season for people to treat them like the choke artists that they are.
 
jamielowndes said:
I dont know how many times Arsenal have to blow the 2nd half of the season for people to treat them like the choke artists that they are.
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It’s funny I’m not even bothered about their last minute win yesterday because all it did in my eyes was reveal all of their insecurities. Arsenal celebrate like they have won the World Cup after beating 20th place at home not even halfway into the season

Meanwhile the following day we go away to play at a very tough venue and post a 3-0 win while not quite being at our best.

This is only going to end one way
 
B\connellblue said:
A defeat today would be a Fifth loss in 16 league games. You ain't winning a title with those numbers.
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Luckily that wasn't an issue. But the fact remains that if we had lost, despite a loss rate of 33% in the league this year, we'd have been still within 5 points of Arsenal. It's a weird season.

We've just beaten the team who beat us the the fa cup final last year, 3-0 at their place. Arsenal scraped a win over a wolves team who look unable to reach double figures for points this season. Everton should be interesting for them as a test
 
I'm not convinced we will as the transistion isn't finished yet... However I bet Arsenal are starting to get PTSD seeing us right up their backsides... and getting better
 
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