Will we win the league this season?

[Axel Freed]

No chance we win it not with a defence like ours that ships goals willy nilly and a manager with no plan B

 

[OrigamiNinja]

IF Rodri is fit and stays fit I can’t see us being stopped, apart from injuries

I have this horrible feeling we will still be saying this with 4 games of the season left. I think we might just have to do this without Rodri.

 

[Dodge]

No chance we win it not with a defence like ours that ships goals willy nilly and a manager with no plan B

You'll catch a few with that mate...

 

[MCFC1993]

Assuming we play to our best and you find your hard games tough, I'd go:

City	Arsenal
Leeds (H) - Win	Chelsea (A) - Draw
Fulham (A) - Win	Brentford (H) - Win
Sunderland (H) - Win	Villa (A) - Loss
Palace (A) - Loss	Wolves (H) - Win
West Ham (H) - Win	Everton (A) - Draw
Forest (A) - Win	Brighton (H) - Win
Sunderland (A) - Win	Villa (H) - Win

18 points City - Losing to Palace (A)
14 points Arsenal - Drawing to Chelsea (A), Everton (A) and losing to Villa (A).

I think the timeslot of the Everton game makes it tough for you.

I also think our Sunderland (A) game is a lot easier than it was for you, they have 8 or 9 at AFCON. 4 of which started against you and 2 came on.


That's my optimistic view, realistic is we get about the same points.

7/8

Not bad when your 1 wrong prediction is the only game you thought City would drop points.

Predicted Arsenal to a tee though. If that continues we'll be top at Xmas.

 

[Marvin.]

We may not win the league but City are getting stronger.

They said we were too reliant on Haaland scoring goals, and Foden answered that.

The it was said you can't win away, well we've just done Real Madrid and Palace.

What questions remain? Only Rodri's fitness.

 

[denTTony]

Donarunna
Trafford

Nunes
Khusanov

Dias
Stones

Gvardiol
Ake

O’Reilly
Ait Nouri

Nico G
Rodri

Lewis
Reijnders

Bernardo
Kovacic/Bobb

Foden
Bobb

Doku
Savio

Haaland
Marmoush

That’s 2 players for every position, maybe one more in Jan as defensive midfield cover. That’s about as strong in depth as you’d want

It is two players for every position but a number of those are not good enough

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

No chance we win it not with a defence like ours that ships goals willy nilly and a manager with no plan B

Lol. We'll piss it by about 10 points.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

I would hope that it's fairly obvious at this point that we are far better than last season - but just in case anybody needs further convincing - I've updated the below:

If we continue at the rate we are currently improving on the games where we dropped points last season (dropping 46% fewer points), then we would end on 91 points.

So far only one fixture has resulted in fewer points than last season (Newcastle away) - 6 fixtures have resulted in more points.

_____

Equivalent fixture last season ---> this season
(Leicester swapped for Burnley, Leeds for Ipswich, Sunderland for Southampton):

Wolves (A) 1-2 Win ---> 0-4 Win
Spurs (H) 0-4 Loss ---> 0-2 Loss
Brighton (A) 2-1 Loss ---> 2-1 Loss
United (H) 1-2 Loss ---> 3-0 Win
Arsenal (A) 5-1 Loss ---> 1-1 Draw
Leicester/Burnley (H) 2-0 Win ---> 5-1 Win
Brentford (A) 2-2 Draw ---> 0-1 Win
Everton (H) 1-1 Draw ---> 2-0 Win
Villa (A) 1-0 Loss ---> 1-0 Loss
Bournemouth (H) 3-1 Win ---> 3-1 Win
Liverpool (H) 0-2 Loss ---> 3-0 Win
Newcastle (A) 1-1 Draw ---> 2-1 Loss
Ipswich/Leeds (H) 4-1 Win ---> 3-2 Win
Fulham (A) 0-2 Win ---> 4-5 Win
Soton/Sunderland (H) 1-0 Win ---> 3-0 Win
Palace (A) 2-2 Draw ---> 0-3 Win

Last season for these fixtures:
22 Points - Dropped 26 - Won 6, Drawn 4, Lost 6, Scored 22, Conceded 25, GD -3

This season:
34 Points - Dropped 14 - Won 11, Drawn 1, Lost 4, Scored 38, Conceded 16, GD +22

Next 5 fixtures (Last season's result) - W 2, D 2, L1 = 8 Points:
West Ham (H) (4-1 Win), Forest (A) (1-0 Loss), Soton/Sunderland (A) (0-0 Draw), Chelsea (H) (3-1 Win), Brighton (H) (2-2 Draw)

 

[KingGeorge]

You'll catch a few with that mate...

He almost caught me.

 

[bridgeno1]

I'm not convinced we will as the transistion isn't finished yet... However I bet Arsenal are starting to get PTSD seeing us right up their backsides... and getting better

I can confirm this is true.

 

[MCFC1993]

I was curious about the narrative that Arsenal have played harder games, so wanted to look at it. We've both played 7 of the top 10, they've played 3 home, 4 away, we've played 4 home, 3 away. However, we've been to their place, they haven't come to ours, so I would say that's even.

You could maybe make the argument that Newcastle and United would be top half. Newcastle we've both played away, United I just wouldn't call a difficult away game, traditionally it's always been hard for Arsenal which is why they say as much.

You would probably expect Sunderland to drop, removing one of their top half away games and they have 7 players at AFCON when we go there.

They've also play 4 of the bottom 5, 6 of the bottom 7, most at home which are essentially gimmes.

	Arsenal		City
	Home	Away	Home	Away
1. Arsenal 33 points	N/A	N/A	(18 Apr)*	1 point
2. City 31 points	1 point	(18 Apr)*	N/A	N/A
3. Villa 30 points	(30 Dec)	0 points	(24 May)*	0 points
4. Chelsea 25 points	(28 Feb)*	1 point	(4 Jan)	(11 Apr)*
5. Everton 24 points	(14 Mar)*	(20 Dec)	3 points	(2 May)*
6. Crystal Palace 23 points (14g)	3 points	(24 May)*	(21 Mar)*	(14 Dec)
7. Sunderland 23 points	(7 Feb)*	1 point	3 points	(1 Jan)
8. Liverpool 23 points	(8 Jan)	0 points	3 points	(7 Feb)*
9. Spurs 22 points	3 points	(21 Feb)*	0 points	(1 Feb)
10. Brighton 22 points (14g)	(27 Dec)	(4 Mar)*	(7 Jan)	0 points
11. Newcastle 22 points	(25 Apr)*	3 points	(21 Feb)*	0 points
12. United 22 points (14g)	(25 Jan)	3 points	3 points	(17 Jan)
13. Bournemouth 20 points	(11 Apr)*	(3 Jan)	3 points	(17 May)*
14. Brentford 19 points	3 points	(11 Feb)*	(9 May)*	3 points
15. Fulham 17 points (14g)	(2 May)*	3 points	(11 Feb)*	3 points
16. Leeds 15 points	3 points	(31 Jan)	3 points	(28 Feb)*
17. Forest 15 points	3 points	(17 Jan)	(4 Mar)*	(27 Dec)
18. West Ham 12 points (14g)	3 points	(9 May)*	(20 Dec)	(14 Mar)*
19. Burnley 10 points	(17 May)*	3 points	3 points	(25 Apr)*
20. Wolves 2 points (14g)	(13 Dec)	(21 Mar)*	(24 Jan)	3 points

Now I'm not expecting us to win the title this season, I do think Arsenal have looked better so far but I am optimistic that it could start clicking for us soon, granted we've only 14 or 15 players I semi-trust.

Ultimately though, the point of the post is that I think our fixtures have been pretty even and we've had the benefit of going to their place already...And we were a last minute goal away there from being 1 point top ourselves.

1 game later:

	Arsenal		City
	Home	Away	Home	Away
1. Arsenal 36 points	N/A	N/A	(18 Apr)*	1 point
2. City 34 points	1 point	(18 Apr)*	N/A	N/A
3. Villa 33 points	(30 Dec)	0 points	(24 May)*	0 points
4. Chelsea 28 points	(28 Feb)*	1 point	(4 Jan)	(11 Apr)*
5. Crystal Palace 26 points	3 points	(24 May)*	(21 Mar)*	3 points
6. Liverpool 26 points	(8 Jan)	0 points	3 points	(7 Feb)*
7. Sunderland 26 points	(7 Feb)*	1 point	3 points	(1 Jan)
8. United 25 points (15g)	(25 Jan)	3 points	3 points	(17 Jan)
9. Everton 24 points	(14 Mar)*	(20 Dec)	3 points	(2 May)*
10. Brighton 23 points	(27 Dec)	(4 Mar)*	(7 Jan)	0 points
11. Spurs 22 points	3 points	(21 Feb)*	0 points	(1 Feb)
12. Newcastle 22 points	(25 Apr)*	3 points	(21 Feb)*	0 points
13. Fulham 20 points	(2 May)*	3 points	(11 Feb)*	3 points
14. Bournemouth 20 points (15g)	(11 Apr)*	(3 Jan)	3 points	(17 May)*
15. Brentford 19 points (15g)	3 points	(11 Feb)*	(9 May)*	3 points
16. Forest 18 points	3 points	(17 Jan)	(4 Mar)*	(27 Feb)
17. Leeds 15 points (15g)	3 points	(31 Jan)	3 points	(28 Feb)*
18. West Ham 13 points	3 points	(9 May)*	(20 Dec)	(14 Mar)*
19. Burnley 10 points	(17 May)*	3 points	3 points	(25 Apr)*
20. Wolves 2 points	3 points	(21 Mar)*	(24 Jan)	3 points

Pretty even, they've played 5 of the top 10 away, we've played 4 of the top 10.

They've played 5 of the bottom 6 at home, essentially handing themselves 15 points. Although as shown yesterday they nearly threw it away.

We have to go to Liverpool but we play Arsenal at home. So that evens out imo.

I didn't think we would be anywhere near the race but Arsenal are showing they aren't all that.

We've yet to better any of their results, they've bettered 2 of ours. Sunderland (A) will probably be our first opportunity to do so.

 

[bell_mcfc]

I believe

 

[PistonBlue]

There are positive signs that things are coming together. Defence still a worry, but Donna makes the saves Edersen couldn't. Gooners will shite themselves, they already are

 

[ufo]

No chance we win it not with a defence like ours that ships goals willy nilly and a manager with no plan B

Live bait is illegal

 

[mcfcallo]

No chance we win it not with a defence like ours that ships goals willy nilly and a manager with no plan B

I nearly nibbled

 

[Grassland Blue]

And here am I still dreaming about a treble.......

 

[TinFoilHat]

We could win it.

I keep saying Arsenal have a glass mentality and a hubris to match.

Top 3 would still be a great achievement with all the transition taking place.

 

[Andy TheCatalyst Morrison]

And here am I still dreaming about a treble.......

Nah, we’ll never do that - a load of rags told me years ago

 

[Phil1]

Hope so, that @bridgeno1 has started to become a right insufferable **** after being ok for a bit.

 

[alexmcity]

In 22/23, we were 7 pts off Arsenal after 16 games: 43 vs 36.

Now we are 2 pts off: 36 vs 34.

Doesn't mean much, but it's interesting this team is not far off the Treble winners after the first 16 games: 36 vs 34 pts. IIRC, we had fewer injuries in 22/23.