Exactly half way through the season. Even if we were to lose at the Stadium of Light (I don't think we will, the team is now looking menacing), we'd be five points behind. You know what? I'll take that, at this stage. If we win, we'll be a mere two points behind. I'd more that take that. We've had to make up much more ground, much later in the season, in many of our title-winning years. Most of them, in fact. Going back to ’68. (Not sure what happened in ’37, calling @Gary James)
I still have Arsenal favourites, but only marginally. They're a good team, no question. Not exactly sure why they are allowed to systematically bully keepers on set pieces. It's become a significant part of their game. (Mainly looking at Gabriel on this). Surely if you block a player on any other part of the pitch, with the ball nowhere near, it's a foul? When did it become ok on keepers? It's spreading, too, now that Arsenal have led the way with impunity. Forest were doing it to us.
Fucking cut it out! Give them one warning, then card the players doing it, it would stop it dead in its tracks. Like rolling around on the ground when you've taken any kind of ball to the head, at any speed, it is anti-football. As is VAR taking five minutes over decisions, although that's a different problem. I speak as a football fan here, not just as a City fan.
You get referees and VAR struggling to work out if in open play, there is enough contact to justify a pen. and then at corners, several players are simultaneously wrestling and holding each other. The level of foul play is out of control.
It is going to be interesting if City use Semenyo to make long throws. He is very good at it. It will be very tempting to use this as a tactic. I object to foul play though. Arsenal are the masters of this and many clubs have copied them. Why wouldn't you. It works. It's up to the officials to stop it but it's very difficult to do so.
Also, Arsenal's recent run is hardly surprising, 4 out of 6 games at home during the winter period:
The only game they've won that I didn't expect is Everton (A) and I still had them down for a draw, the other 2 I expected them to struggle in, they did.
4 out of 6 for us away, so far perfect with 1 to go.
I had them down for 14 points from those 7 games. They got 16 points.
I had us down as 18 points from those 7 games, +4 gain on them. We have the 18 so far.
We'll be ahead of what I was expecting if we beat Sunderland, +5 instead of +4.
So that's what some of the stats say, I personally think it's going to take 90 points to win the league and the game at the Etihad in April is going to be really important.
I expect the rate of City's point accumulation has been increasing through the season i.e., if you were to plot City's points vs games, it would have a rising gradient, whereas Arsenal's gradient would be a straight line. That might be a useful exercise / predictor.
Football is so complex that it is very difficult to predict but it is obvious that Arsenal are a mature side whereas City are much younger and in an earlier stage of development. That suggests City can be volatile, but possibly we have yet to reach our ceiling. The absence of Rodri and the forthcoming signing of Semenyo add to that feeling.
I expect the rate of City's point accumulation has been increasing through the season i.e., if you were to plot City's points vs games, it would have a rising gradient, whereas Arsenal's gradient would be a straight line. That might be a useful exercise / predictor.
Football is so complex that it is very difficult to predict but it is obvious that Arsenal are a mature side whereas City are much younger and in an earlier stage of development. That suggests City can be volatile, but possibly we have yet to reach our ceiling. The absence of Rodri and the forthcoming signing of Semenyo add to that feeling.
I think this idea that playing all of the big teams is the hard away games out of the way is a little bit false. Of course they're harder but the other away games aren't exactly gimmes.
Forest, Palace, Sunderland, Brighton, Brentford are pain in the arse places to go.
A very good win for Arsenal. Villa had their chances early doors and missed them. Another dodgy set-piece goal that I thought should have been disallowed. The Arsenal player led with his elbow on the keeper. The level of foul play at corners is now ridiculous. Everyone is wrestling. This is across the game, and this development stems from Arsenal.
Arsenal showed their strength last night. i turned over at 2-0 to watch Utd v Wolves because it was game over. Utd were terrible, and yet they are 6th, level on points with 5th placed Chelsea. I think that there is great depth in the Premier League but the quality is missing from the top 6 sides. Perhaps that is partly why Arsenal and City are having good seasons. There are very few other good sides.
Even 5-6 will be enough. I don’t think people realise the level of pressure & expectation that is going to hit Arsenal during the run in. They need that healthy buffer. It’s a huge ask for a manager & bunch of players who have won nothing in 5 years to hold their nerve especially if a team with plenty of proven players lead by a manager who has won it all is right on their tail.
Agreed. People are talking about last night being a statement but it’s still far too early to be calling a match a statement in my opinion. A good win yes but the only kind of match that could be labelled as a statement this early in the season would be a solid away win at somewhere like Anfield.
So on the basis of who has had the harder games as the table starts to settle, they've been away to everyone in the top 8 apart from us. Although I think you could make the argument that United, Everton and Sunderland wont finish top 8. Which leaves them having been to Chelsea and Liverpool over us.
If they continue to beat the rest then we're going to have to be nigh on perfect.
Although they have played 10 home games in their opening 19, we will have played 10 away games.
2nd half of the season they will have tough home games and easier away games.
We will have easier home games and tougher away games.
On a comparative fixture basis this season with us, they are 6 points up:
They've beat Newcastle (A) and Spurs (H). We lost both.
We can beat Sunderland (A) tomorrow to reduce this to 4 points.
On a comparative fixture basis to last season:
Arsenal 74 points last season. +12 on last season so far.
United (A) +2
Leeds (H) 0
Liverpool (A) -1
Forest (H) 0
City (H) -2
Newcastle (A) +3
West Ham (H) +3
Fulham (A) +2
Palace (H) +2
Burnley (A) 0
Sunderland (A) -2
Spurs (H) 0
Chelsea (A) 0
Brentford (H) +2
Villa (A) -3
Wolves (H) 0
Everton (A) +2
Brighton (H) +2
Villa (H) +2
City 71 points last season. +15 on last season so far.
Wolves (A) 0
Spurs (H) 0
Brighton (A) 0
United (H) +3
Arsenal (A) +1
Burnley (H) 0
Brentford (A) +2
Everton (H) +2
Villa (A) 0
Bournemouth (H) 0
Liverpool (H) +3
Newcastle (A) -1
Fulham (A) 0
Sunderland (H) 0
Palace (A) +2
West Ham (H) 0
Forest (A) +3
For the above, based on how they were promoted. Leicester become Leeds this season. Ipswich become Burnley this season. Southampton become Sunderland this season
So that's what some of the stats say, I personally think it's going to take 90 points to win the league and the game at the Etihad in April is going to be really important, as in, we'll probably have to win it.
That 90 point assertion is speculative but I understand where you're coming from. If so, I think that gives 10 pts to play with and the Arse game is then likely a must win. It's a tall order and remaining in all the other comps will have an impact. I'm not sure Arse will keep this pace up over the season. It really does come down to what we do.
