Denton and Gorton by-election - Green Party wins

[Vic]

'Family voting' not having been used much prior to this tweet does make it look unconvincing.

I'd think that someone vaguely responsible would be able to review if it's been a concern before, or whether it's been known. What is the appropriate response for someone who for some reason can't fill in the paperwork as they want? Postal voting??

Representation of the People Act 1983 schedule 1 rule 39

If a voter makes an application to the presiding officer to be allowed, on the ground of—

(a)blindness or other disability, or

(b)inability to read,

to vote with the assistance of another person by whom he is accompanied (in these rules referred to as “the companion”), the presiding officer shall require the voter to declare, orally or in writing, whether he is so incapacitated by his blindness or other disability, or by his inability to read, as to be unable to vote without assistance.

 

[The Norfolk Blue]

This is more likely to trigger a general election and Reform are mostly likely to win overall across the country.

Some tissues for your tears.

 

[Eccles Blue]

I think they'll let him take the fall for the (presumably disastrous) local elections, and then force him out to give a new leader a fresh start.

I sort of agree but then wonder who they would choose? I'm not sure at the moment that any party has a good leader. (Not that I want just any party but I'm a bit depressed about the state of our politics presently.)

 

[TinFoilHat]

 

[Zabbasbeard]

Massive relief. Thank God the birthplace of MCFC has rejected Nazism.

 

[blueinsa]

Pleased she won and it’s the right choice that relays a message to this government and to Reform.

 

[Blue and true]

Pleased she won and it’s the right choice that relays a message to this government and to Reform.

About all that needs saying at this point. / Thread.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Farage singling out South Asian men for ‘family voting’ kinda shows where it’s starting to unravel for them in their approach. To be elected PM you have a broad church of 4 nations within the U.K. and also many different minorities who live here. Playing divisive politics can only get you so far if you want to be PM.

His brand of politics might work in Clacton on Sea but it doesn’t work in Manchester where people are a bit more savvy. I actually think he would shit the bed if he did get the nod to be Pm, his political career would be guaranteed to be over within the space of 5 years, it’s much better for his grift to shout from the sidelines to keep his gravy train going.

 

[bluejon]

This by election is a terrible state of affairs across the board, how it was campaigned, the illegal family voting, the toxic polarisation and the voting segregation across different communities (well that bit is presumed).

She wasn’t the right choice and never will be.

The illegal family voting that only a single right wing affiliated group have observed and didn't say anything till after the polls closed. Police and polling staff saw absolutely nothing. She was the right choice for our constituency because that is who the constituency voted for. And as for this "it was only the muslims who voted green", give your head a fucking wobble. You don't live there, you don't know shit.

 

[mattcity5]

This by election is a terrible state of affairs across the board, how it was campaigned, the illegal family voting, the toxic polarisation and the voting segregation across different communities (well that bit is presumed).

She wasn’t the right choice and never will be.

Forget the "illegal family voting", you're just hearing that because Reform are using it as a ready made excuse.

This is like how Trump cries fraud when he does everything to try and rig it in his favour and it doesn't work

 

[Craig]

The illegal family voting that only a single right wing affiliated group have observed and didn't say anything till after the polls closed. Police and polling staff saw absolutely nothing. She was the right choice for our constituency because that is who the constituency voted for. And as for this "it was only the muslims who voted green", give your head a fucking wobble. You don't live there, you don't know shit.

True. Levenshulme is absolutely full of vote Green signs on houses that aren’t Muslin households

 

[I'm With Stupid]

The illegal family voting that only a single right wing affiliated group have observed and didn't say anything till after the polls closed. Police and polling staff saw absolutely nothing. She was the right choice for our constituency because that is who the constituency voted for. And as for this "it was only the muslims who voted green", give your head a fucking wobble. You don't live there, you don't know shit.

It happens every time an area with a higher number of Muslims votes in a way that right wingers don't approve of. Claims of 'community leaders' hoovering up the postal votes of their entire street to vote countless times. Like clockwork.

But, but, but, but everyone on my social media supports Reform, so how can they not have won? Basically the reverse of all of the people that were shocked about Brexit because no-one in their bubble supported it.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

True. Levenshulme is absolutely full of vote Green signs on houses that aren’t Muslin households

Large student population as well who won’t buy into Reform’s prehistoric politics.

 

[bluejon]

True. Levenshulme is absolutely full of vote Green signs on houses that aren’t Muslin households

100%.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Forget the "illegal family voting", you're just hearing that because Reform are using it as a ready made excuse.

This is like how Trump cries fraud when he does everything to try and rig it in his favour and it doesn't work

View attachment 184898

It showed the seed and peoples’ gullibility did the rest.

They’re told to question everything.

Everything except Farage’s credibility and honesty.

 

[Palerider]

I think there's multiple potential forks in the road (my opinion in brackets).

1. One or both of the traditional parties responds meaningfully to the populist insurgence and regains control of their electoral position and the narrative (unlikely but of the two I suspect Labour has at least some chance if it enacts a course correction)
2. One or both of the traditional parties seeks some form of coalition with the populist insurgence (possible in the case of ConForm, at the moment seems very unlikely with Labour but maybe with a change of leadership and tone?)
3. One or both of the populist parties demonstrates itself capable of more than populism and offers something more robust that enough people go for (very unlikely in the case of Reform, the new incarnation of the Greens who knows, possible?)
4. One of the populist parties wins the day anyway and goes into government wholly unprepared for it
5. There ends up a highly tactical voting orientated election that at grassroots level has a Lab, Green, LD v Con, Reform flavour that leaves us with no overall majority and potentially a bit of a shitshow given our current approach to government isn't designed to support complex coalitions.

I suspect 5 but my main hope is that whatever electoral bargains have to be struck involves a move to PR sooner rather than later and our politics matures a bit (and does so quickly given some of the challenges we face). I am ever the optimist.

Very good analysis and like you I suspect 5 is going to happen (probably quickly followed by another GE) This is the first time ever I have seen 4 parties in the betting all below 10/1 to get the most seats at the next election. It's even possible that the Lib Dems become the king makers as the Lab/Green and Con/Reform duets may not be enough. Certainly PR may be put on the table by someone. Intriguing.

 

[bluejon]

Large student population as well who won’t buy into Reform’s prehistoric politics.

I keep hearing about this large student population, and maybe there is one around west point, fallowfield end, but i'm not aware of it at all?

 

[I'm With Stupid]

I keep hearing about this large student population, and maybe there is one around west point, fallowfield end, but i'm not aware of it at all?

I had a quick look on Wikipedia a while back and it definitely mentioned a reasonable student population. Don't know where exactly though.

 

[bluejon]

I had a quick look on Wikipedia a while back and it definitely mentioned a reasonable student population. Don't know where exactly though.

Yeah, it's a bit of a mystery to me. Maybe there's a colony of them living near fallowfield (i doubt there's many students living in west point, unless they happen to be millionaires, house prices have gone stupid round there).

 

[hcblue95]

People who a few months ago probably thought the greens were fringe lunatics voted for them, to keep out Reform. That's a good sign for a general election that keeping out Reform will be the priority for a lot of people, in the centre and left.