US & Israel attack Iran

[Keith Moon]

Have I missed this news ?

Who ?

Ahmad Vahidi is the new chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a notorious hard-liner — and senior cleric Ayatollah Alireza Arafi will serve as Iran’s interim Supreme Leader; he has a stronger religious background than Khamenei.

 

[Marlo]

The attack on Iran is an extremely complex issue, aggravated by the fact that neither the USA nor Israel are good faith actors - that is, placing humanity and benefit to country above personal benefit. USA does what's good for Trump; Israel does what's good for Netanyahu.

That said...

If Iran was on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons - I support the attack.
If Iran was so unstable that the death of its leader would likely result in a regime change in support of the Iranian population - I support the attack.

Whereas...
The attack on Iran will likely boost Netanyahu's popularity.
The attack on Iran will likely boost Trump's popularity.
And that's why the attack occurred. It's got nothing whatsoever to do with societal benefit.

My take is that radical Iranians have a stranglehold on governance and are willing to kill millions to remain in power. Killing their leader simply means that another such will take his place. Even if they are in the minority. They have at least 33% of the population on their side and have all the weapons. Should an uprising occur, not backed by troops on the ground from the USA or Israel... it's going to be a bloodbath - and the4 side with the weapons (religious zealots) - are almost certainly going to prevail.

Agree with all this.

The other point I would add is that neither Israel nor the US have an appetite to put boots on the ground and take the casualties that would be needed to dig out the Iranian government. The US are desperately hoping the Iranians can get the government out, but as you say this will be a bloodbath.

 

[mosssideblue]

That is what is happening, but it is a dangerous game when egos are involved. If Putin condemns action against Iran and Venezuela, and Trump condemns action against Ukraine, but neither actually does anything, instead agreeing to scratch the others' back without repercussion, then potentially the world is carved up exactly how these two megalomaniacs wish. Land gains, caretaker roles over resource-rich regions, Putin and Trump benefit hugely. It's just Europe sat left in the middle.

However, if neither Trump or Putin backs down or even comes out to denounce the other, then the escalation could be significant. The major issue could be if either side asks 'which region is next for our rival power to attack', and doesn't like the outlook.

Trump is shit scared of Putin

 

[crooky]

‘Never, ever”

That guy is pretty much a professional 'shitposter'. Most of the story is made up nonsense. Here's another one of his tweets from not long ago so it's clearer what sort of Tweets he likes to write

 

[cleavers]

Ahmad Vahidi is the new chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a notorious hard-liner — and senior cleric Ayatollah Alireza Arafi will serve as Iran’s interim Supreme Leader; he has a stronger religious background than Khamenei.

I've never heard of either, I doubt you had until today, and at this point, naming them just makes them targets for the ongoing conflict, so really it means nothing much. All they'll be doing for now will be trying to knit absolute chaos together.

The population may not allow it, and while the protests a few weeks ago didn't succeed, there will be far bigger issues for the security forces than protests for now, so we need to wait and see how it all pans out.

 

[oldius]

Let him have it then.... his vision of a future Britain is very different to mine and I suspect many others, The last thing we need now is radical solutions.

I don't know what is radical about more equality and less killing.

 

[Kippax Street 1880]

Funny thing is Iran’s answer to being bombed by America and Isreal is to bomb innocent Muslim people in the Middle East

Its missiles that have been intercepted landing in civilian areas in these countries, they aren't the intended targets. They are trying to bomb military bases but they all have sophisticated defence systems.

 

[Ho Chi Man City]

On a totally selfish point, I guess the $1,200 I spent last month on flights to Beirut for a wedding in August won’t be used…..

Get your cash back and have a week in Benidorm instead, it’ll be more lively than Tehran that time of year. Alternatively if you wish to still go to Beirut give Terry Waite a bell, he’ll fix you up with a radiator.

 

[SWP's back]

Get your cash back and have a week in Benidorm instead, it’ll be more lively than Tehran that time of year. Alternatively if you wish to still go to Beirut give Terry Waite a bell, he’ll fix you up with a radiator.

Beirut is a great night out.

 

[BigJoe#1]

Zack is the new George Galloway.

Target a bloc vote and do and say anything to get it.

He is a fucking imposter and if I were a "GREEN" supporter I'd be extremely pissed off. I think he says what he has to say to get or meet the green credentials and makes himself super popular..... then he turns to "real world" politics and does what he wants with the backing of a party of supporters who don't give a fuck provided we have windmills being built everywhere.

 

[thelantern]

Beirut is a great night out.

It is that good Terry Waite stayed for 5 years, that's some recommendation.

 

[BlueTG]

On a totally selfish point, I guess the $1,200 I spent last month on flights to Beirut for a wedding in August won’t be used…..

I was due to go to Lebanon, Jordan and Armenia the week after next! Not anymore.

 

[johnny crossan]

Ahmad Vahidi is the new chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a notorious hard-liner — and senior cleric Ayatollah Alireza Arafi will serve as Iran’s interim Supreme Leader; he has a stronger religious background than Khamenei.

Just the next target taxis on the rank, pretty meaningless as Trump tries to annihilate their entire military infrastructure. Meanwhile the situation escalates. The interesting part will be who appears when the ceasefire negotiations start - which may be a while if, as is suspected, Trump has grossly underestimated his opponent and overestimated the US ability to achieve regime change.

 

[The blue phantom]

Near 150 Dead now from the bombing of the school.

Death toll from school bombing in southern Iran reportedly rises to 165

Strike on girls’ elementary school in south of Iran has killed 148 people and injured 95 others, according to Iran state media

www.theguardian.com

 

[Ho Chi Man City]

Beirut is a great night out.

I believe before the lumber going back to the 70’s it was a fantastic place, remember seeing an English old boy on TV who refused to leave (as advised) saying a bit of trouble wasn’t going to ruin his life!

Obviously got its mojo back, be an interesting place to visit, did you go for leisure or work?

 

[BigJoe#1]

Can you give me the name of the political leader who actually has given a satisfactory answer on how we deal with the situation?

errrr..... DJ TRUMP "we'll just bomb the fuckers off the face off the earth... maybe?

Only joking (well in part at least)

 

[Keith Moon]

I've never heard of either, I doubt you had until today, and at this point, naming them just makes them targets for the ongoing conflict, so really it means nothing much. All they'll be doing for now will be trying to knit absolute chaos together.

The population may not allow it, and while the protests a few weeks ago didn't succeed, there will be far bigger issues for the security forces than protests for now, so we need to wait and see how it all pans out.

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi suggests a hard-line stance toward enemies and protesters, while the appointment of Alireza Arafi indicates that the principlists remain firmly in control.

 

[johnny crossan]

Looking on the bright side at least EV owners won't be queuing at the pumps. This shitshow been coming a while I suppose but it makes a mockery of the 'negotiations' game, they're shown to be just an interlude between bloodletting. Has the world learned nothing from what has gone before?

 

[cleavers]

The appointment of Ahmad Vahidi suggests a hard-line stance toward enemies and protesters, while the appointment of Alireza Arafi indicates that the principlists remain firmly in control.

I'll bow to your knowledge then.

They'll likely be dead today or tomorrow though, just because they've been named. Israel in particular, seems to have very good intelligence inside Iran.

 

[metalblue]

Putin has waded in on it now. Stopped short of calling Trump directly but remains to be seen whether Russia and the US now agree to allow each other to conduct operations against traditional allies and carve up the remains. If so, doesn't bode well for Ukraine and could leave Europe further isolated.

Of course Putin has waded in. His unwavering support of Iran goes back to Iran supplying missiles and drones a while back - in return Russia was selling arms to Iran, recently including air defence missiles and a deal for buy fighters and helicopters, helping to fuel their war budget against Ukraine.

Fat lot of good it turned up to be mind.