US & Israel attack Iran

cleavers said:
I'll bow to your knowledge then.

They'll likely be dead today or tomorrow though, just because they've been named. Israel in particular, seems to have very good intelligence inside Iran.
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New York Times reporting that the CIA alerted Israel about Iran’s leadership meeting and whereabouts.
 
Gabriel said:
New York Times reporting that the CIA alerted Israel about Iran’s leadership meeting and whereabouts.
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It doesn't matter how many proposed leaders they can kill there will always be a man with a large beard to step in and take the job.
 
cleavers said:
Obviously, but the post I quoted seemed specific, but I've never heard of the name mentioned in MSM so far. At this point nobody knows who will end up in power, or how the majority of Iranians will react.

The videos last night of the population cheering the news, says everything about the population, but can they bottle that and do something to gain control ?
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>> can they bottle that and do something to gain control?
It's extremely unlikely.

If you're hoping for some sort of magical regime change just because the side with all the guns lost its leader... you're as deranged as @SWP's back.
 
thelantern said:
It doesn't matter how many proposed leaders they can kill there will always be a man with a large beard to step in and take the job.
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That's an excuse to do nothing surely? Now we will never ever get to a place where the world and people are perfect but not trying is giving up. Something better, not perfect but better, will emerge for the people of Iran and that is a good thing.
 
Palerider said:
That's an excuse to do nothing surely? Now we will never ever get to a place where the world and people are perfect but not trying is giving up. Something better, not perfect but better, will emerge for the people of Iran and that is a good thing.
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And this is why - with leaders placing perceived societal advantage and threat to country - invaded Iraq. How fucking great did that turn out?

And this bombing of Iran is even worse - leader dead... but the radical Islamists with all the weapons are going to remain in charge. Should an uprising occur - it'll be a massacre - and the zealots will remain in charge.
 
Palerider said:
That's an excuse to do nothing surely? Now we will never ever get to a place where the world and people are perfect but not trying is giving up. Something better, not perfect but better, will emerge for the people of Iran and that is a good thing.
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Having the answers from my living room chair isn't something I am claiming, I am however positing that the fundamentalism might be a bit more entrenched than they're are letting on. The head of the hydra springs to mind here.
 
Palerider said:
That's an excuse to do nothing surely? Now we will never ever get to a place where the world and people are perfect but not trying is giving up. Something better, not perfect but better, will emerge for the people of Iran and that is a good thing.
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So bearing in mind the US would almost certainly better without Trump should the European Union not assasinate him?
 
cleavers said:
I'll bow to your knowledge then.

They'll likely be dead today or tomorrow though, just because they've been named. Israel in particular, seems to have very good intelligence inside Iran.
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Sure, they’re now at the top of the target list, and the odds of a natural death aren’t exactly something you’d get rich betting on. But without ground troops, and with unarmed civilians expected to topple the regime, the basic prerequisite is that there isn’t leadership in place that would be willing to suppress protests with lethal force.
 
Or how about this... if the attack on Iran was designed to bring about regime change - as noble as this goal is - where is the commitment to make this change occur?

Leader with guns is dead - and yet - side with guns, maybe 33% of the population - has all of the guns. And neither Israel nor the USA are going to commit a single troup on the ground in support of the general Iranian populace.

At best - nothing changes in Iran.

My expectation - some other religious zealot gains control, and kills every single protester he can find.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Or how about this... if the attack on Iran was designed to bring about regime change - as noble as this goal is - where is the commitment to make this change occur?

Leader with guns is dead - and yet - side with guns, maybe 33% of the population - has all of the guns. And neither Israel nor the USA are going to commit a single troup on the ground in support of the general Iranian populace.

At best - nothing changes in Iran.

My expectation - some other religious zealot gains control, and kills every single protester he can find.
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Regime change is illegal as is kidnapping presidents. The US and Israel are operating a a 2 man vigilante team outside the law If they had the moral compass of Batman and Robin this might be OKish but as they are more like Bonny and Clyde not so much
 
If, as CBS reports, 40 Iranian leaders were killed in the strikes, then who is now appointed will likely confirm how effective they have been. I doubt the immediate goal is democracy in Iran, just the removal of the theocracy, the neutralisation of any threat, and an autocracy that is malleable.
 
threespires said:
It is perfectly understandable that people are glad to see the death of the head of a murderous regime and have empathy for what the Iranian people have had to suffer.

However, this is an opportunistic attack that has ignored international and domestic law, by a man who has deliberately hollowed out almost all meaningful strategic capabilities and restraint in his government and by another man who has led his country into rogue nation territory. It has been done without the support of the international community, little to no infrastructure seems to be in place for what happens next and if there is a strategy beyond destabilisation of the existing regime it is entirely unclear. All this has happened in arguably the most febrile part of the world. There is no cause for celebration at this point in time because it's entirely unclear how this is going to play out for the Iranian people or anyone else. The track record of the belligerents gives no cause for comfort and we can only hope some saner nations can help find a route to de-escalation.
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And the last part of that is probably the biggest issue ti he concerned about.
 
johnny crossan said:
Just the next target taxis on the rank, pretty meaningless as Trump tries to annihilate their entire military infrastructure. Meanwhile the situation escalates. The interesting part will be who appears when the ceasefire negotiations start - which may be a while if, as is suspected, Trump has grossly underestimated his opponent and overestimated the US ability to achieve regime change.
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www.aljazeera.com

Analysis: Will Iran’s establishment collapse after the killing of Khamenei?

While the US bets on a swift regime collapse, analysts warn the power vacuum could birth a more aggressive leadership.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
 
Paul1970 said:
Didn’t they attack Dubai airport ?
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We don't know if they "attacked" it, or air defences shot at something and debris fell on it. There's a military base quite close to Dubai airport (usually has British forces on it, as well as US forces).

Air defences are there to prevent the threats to actual targets, but there is little control of what happens when they hit a missile or drone.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Or how about this... if the attack on Iran was designed to bring about regime change - as noble as this goal is - where is the commitment to make this change occur?

Leader with guns is dead - and yet - side with guns, maybe 33% of the population - has all of the guns. And neither Israel nor the USA are going to commit a single troup on the ground in support of the general Iranian populace.

At best - nothing changes in Iran.

My expectation - some other religious zealot gains control, and kills every single protester he can find.
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Might replace him with another al qaeda terrorist like they did recently in Syria:

"From al-Qaida to the Upper East Side: Syria’s new leader makes his debut on the world stage":

"Not too long ago, Ahmed al-Sharaa – better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani – would have been arrested on arrival in the US. The former head of Syria’s al-Nusra Front had a $10m bounty on his head for organising “multiple terrorist attacks throughout Syria, often targeting civilians”.

This week, however, after toppling the dictator Bashar al-Assad in a lightning offensive last December, he is being feted in New York as he meets with world leaders in the first visit to the United Nations general assembly by a Syrian head of state since 1967."

www.theguardian.com

From al-Qaida to the Upper East Side: Syria’s new leader makes his debut on the world stage

Ahmed al-Sharaa faces a tough task in reassuring the UN of his statesmanship while maintaining authority at home
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

"Head of jihadist group seeks to portray himself as a more moderate leader but many doubt sincerity of his words"

www.theguardian.com

Who is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of Syrian insurgents HTS?

Head of jihadist group seeks to portray himself as a more moderate leader but many doubt sincerity of his words
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

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"Western values".
 
threespires said:
There is no cause for celebration at this point in time because it's entirely unclear how this is going to play out for the Iranian people or anyone else. The track record of the belligerents gives no cause for comfort and we can only hope some saner nations can help find a route to de-escalation.
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All correct, sadly I don't see Israel giving up now, even when trump gets bored.
 
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