Why the fuck is Israel involved in this conversation at all?
You talk about "earning it" on the pitch. Israel had their chance and they failed. Stop trying to shoehorn them in for literally zero fucking reason.
It will go to the best team in AFC that doesn't qualify.
1. They were in a very difficult European Group of Italy and Norway.
2. They finished with 12 points.
3. They scored the most goals of any European squad that failed to qualify. Football fans generally like to see squads that score more goals than others. Football fans generally respect squads who play in tougher groups against more talented squads and occasionally play well against them.
4. They were forced to play their "home" matches on a neutral site in Hungary, a huge disadvantage.
5. They, um, are hugely discriminated against by most of the world, and schemed on by most of the wrold, who believe insane conspiracies about their country.
6. The World Cup is in America, the friendliest country to Israel in the world by a kilometer.
7. Israel and America are currently in a war to topple the Iranian regime, the country that schemed to kick Israel out of AFC which forced them to compete in European qualifcation for over half a century, a much more difficult endeavor.
8. Israel as a footballing nation has a higher world ranking than most of the best nations who failed to qualify for make the playoff.
9. Israel despite struggling with Norway and in the road match in Italy, produced arguably the most exciting match in WCQ against Italy, a 5-4 thriller which, at the very least, showed how exciting and effective they can be on the pitch.
10. Over the last half century, Iran has been the nation who has been trying to effectively wipe Israel off the map, failing to do so in spectacularly jarring fashion.
Morally, ethically, and based on on-pitch performance and having the deck literally stacked against them in ways that most other countries can't even imagine, Israel would make the most sense to anyone who isn't biased or a conspiracy nerd.