Yep, they will fuck this one up big style.
Theres no risk of any tickets going to away fans. There’s absolutely no reason whatsoever why they don’t just put the tickets immediately on open sale. None. If they did that they’d sell 35k, get people there who’ve never been to Wembley, and I suspect it would lead to a great atmosphere too as vocal fans would be on the top tier as well s the bottom.
They won’t do it. Your prediction will definitely come true. They’ll base the criteria on the high demand for the Arsenal game and won’t factor in that this game will not have the same demand. With a week to go there will be 10,000 left unsold and it will be too late to sell them.