Will we win the league this season? No

[Gorton_Tubster]

1 month ago we were looking at winning nothing. So I'm thankful were in the fight now. What a team tbh.

 

[yeah whatever !!]

Can we win the title ?? hell yeah... all we have to do is get more points than Arsenal.
they also have two games against the very aggressive Atletico Madrid.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

This is absolutely right.

Arsenal went like a train from the beginning of the season until Christmas. They came through the first 4 months of the season and the CL group stage with almost perfect records. There was very little squad rotation but it gave them a healthy lead in the league and they came through the CL in first place.

Now they are paying for it. Saka is out. Timber is out. Odegaard and Rice are being held together with sticking plaster. Eze can just about manage an hour. Madueke can't do more than a half. I was surprised at their energy levels on Sunday but generally they are running on fumes , and I wonder how easy they will find it to go again at the weekend. There has been a lot of talk about Arsenal's squad depth, but I did think in October/November "so why isn't he rotating them?"

When Pep swapped the whole first 11 in that CL game in December (?) against Leverkusen many on here were up in arms about that. But he knew what he was doing. If you want to go deep in four competitions, you need to manage your squad. Too much football in the first 6 months of the season and you have nothing left when the trophies start getting handed out.

On the balance of how they have performed over the season so far, Arsenal should be out of sight. That they are not is down to Arteta. Now they may still do it, they may win their last 5 at a canter and we come up short. But they have won one in six, they have seen their lead evaporate, they have watched us go past them twice in the last three years, they have some tricky fixtures, they have a bruising pair of games against Atletico thrown into the mix and their first 11 isn't getting any fitter.

And given they know goal difference could be crucial they are going to have to throw themselves into their last 5 league games.

Maybe they will be able to reinvent themselves as a goal machine. Maybe they can play their kids and get a result against the odds against Newcastle and Fulham. But they have got some real problems.

Good post Chris. We have seen it time and time again with Pep's City. You get to the business end of the season and the fixtures pileup hits you. Something gives. Some rotten luck, a sending off, a freak victory against the run of play. Liverpool and Spurs in the Champions League. United when we could have won the league. There's always a rick in there somewhere. The reason we won the treble is that we had already won the league and could afford to rotate in those last few weeks.

I wasn't up in arms about the Leverkusen lineup. I understood. It was the same away at NEwcasatle in the Carabou cup. It isn't just that you've got to rest players, there's even more to it. One of the many things which are brilliant about Pep is his ability to keep fringe players motivated and involved, and to stop them leaving. We have some right now in that position: Foden, Savino, Gonzalez and Ait Nouri spring to mind.

It was great news for us that they won their champions league game. Propably the best thing for us now is if they lose their semi but it goes to the wire.

I'll tell you what's bugging me and I can't let go of it. 2014. Liverpool beat us at Anfield and then we drew to Sunderland at home. It was done. And then Gerard slipped, they were suddenly chasing goals at Palace and the leauge was ours. The situation is almost identical. And it's never happened to us in a title race. I know this is paranoioa and not based on reason but still.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

Good post Chris. We have seen it time and time again with Pep's City. You get to the business end of the season and the fixtures pileup hits you. Something gives. Some rotten luck, a sending off, a freak victory against the run of play. Liverpool and Spurs in the Champions League. United when we could have won the league. There's always a rick in there somewhere. The reason we won the treble is that we had already won the league and could afford to rotate in those last few weeks.

I wasn't up in arms about the Leverkusen lineup. I understood. It was the same away at NEwcasatle in the Carabou cup. It isn't just that you've got to rest players, there's even more to it. One of the many things which are brilliant about Pep is his ability to keep fringe players motivated and involved, and to stop them leaving. We have some right now in that position: Foden, Savino, Gonzalez and Ait Nouri spring to mind.

It was great news for us that they won their champions league game. Propably the best thing for us now is if they lose their semi but it goes to the wire.

I'll tell you what's bugging me and I can't let go of it. 2014. Liverpool beat us at Anfield and then we drew to Sunderland at home. It was done. And then Gerard slipped, they were suddenly chasing goals at Palace and the leauge was ours. The situation is almost identical. And it's never happened to us in a title race. I know this is paranoioa and not based on reason but still.

Yes, I have this deep sense that you can't win every single down to the wire title race you are in but yet we have done. Like finals, to win them you have to lose some. But that's just my own irrational brain.

 

[supercity88]

I hope you are right. They played very well against us. They have either turned a corner or used everything they had left against us. I hope it’s the latter.

The CL semi final is going to be a real mental and physical battle for them which could take something away from them in the league. They've definitely got easier fixtures on paper but they've not shown they have the mentality to step up and perform every few days.

Ultimately we're now in a position where it doesn't matter what they do. We just need to win our games. It could come down to goal difference and Arsenal haven't scored more than once in a league game since they beat Everton on 17th March.

 

[Claytop]

Good post Chris. We have seen it time and time again with Pep's City. You get to the business end of the season and the fixtures pileup hits you. Something gives. Some rotten luck, a sending off, a freak victory against the run of play. Liverpool and Spurs in the Champions League. United when we could have won the league. There's always a rick in there somewhere. The reason we won the treble is that we had already won the league and could afford to rotate in those last few weeks.

I wasn't up in arms about the Leverkusen lineup. I understood. It was the same away at NEwcasatle in the Carabou cup. It isn't just that you've got to rest players, there's even more to it. One of the many things which are brilliant about Pep is his ability to keep fringe players motivated and involved, and to stop them leaving. We have some right now in that position: Foden, Savino, Gonzalez and Ait Nouri spring to mind.

It was great news for us that they won their champions league game. Propably the best thing for us now is if they lose their semi but it goes to the wire.

I'll tell you what's bugging me and I can't let go of it. 2014. Liverpool beat us at Anfield and then we drew to Sunderland at home. It was done. And then Gerard slipped, they were suddenly chasing goals at Palace and the leauge was ours. The situation is almost identical. And it's never happened to us in a title race. I know this is paranoioa and not based on reason but still.

Yup I keep remembering about what you've posted about before, we're due to come out 2nd best in a close title race...

 

[supercity88]

Good post Chris. We have seen it time and time again with Pep's City. You get to the business end of the season and the fixtures pileup hits you. Something gives. Some rotten luck, a sending off, a freak victory against the run of play. Liverpool and Spurs in the Champions League. United when we could have won the league. There's always a rick in there somewhere. The reason we won the treble is that we had already won the league and could afford to rotate in those last few weeks.

I wasn't up in arms about the Leverkusen lineup. I understood. It was the same away at NEwcasatle in the Carabou cup. It isn't just that you've got to rest players, there's even more to it. One of the many things which are brilliant about Pep is his ability to keep fringe players motivated and involved, and to stop them leaving. We have some right now in that position: Foden, Savino, Gonzalez and Ait Nouri spring to mind.

It was great news for us that they won their champions league game. Propably the best thing for us now is if they lose their semi but it goes to the wire.

I'll tell you what's bugging me and I can't let go of it. 2014. Liverpool beat us at Anfield and then we drew to Sunderland at home. It was done. And then Gerard slipped, they were suddenly chasing goals at Palace and the leauge was ours. The situation is almost identical. And it's never happened to us in a title race. I know this is paranoioa and not based on reason but still.

If we beat Burnley 1-0 we're top on goals scored (GD the same +3 goals scored).

Arsenal on paper have games where it will be easier to boost their GD than we do, but I really think it will be won on points. I don't think Pep will even entertain scoring more goals if 3pts are at risk, unless we play Villa and need to in order to win the title.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Yup I keep remembering about what you've posted about before, we're due to come out 2nd best in a close title race...

I get overly obsessed with "due" to be honest because there isn't any rational basis for it.

I was convinced on Sunday that we were due a freak incident and some heartache and one actually happened exactly as I envisaged but we still won the game. Maybe I should have more faith.

 

[Rory Bluelow]

The CL semi final is going to be a real mental and physical battle for them which could take something away from them in the league. They've definitely got easier fixtures on paper but they've not shown they have the mentality to step up and perform every few days.

Ultimately we're now in a position where it doesn't matter what they do. We just need to win our games. It could come down to goal difference and Arsenal haven't scored more than once in a league game since they beat Everton on 17th March.

There’s no easy fixtures at the point of the season. Even teams with “nothing to play for” have pulled off remarkable and unexpected results. I’m expect Arsenal and us to drop points. My gut says we’ll win this but it’s by no means guaranteed. After Liverpool’s collapse at Palace in 2014 - we definitely shouldn’t go chasing goal difference.
I’m just glad we’re still well in the mix.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

If we beat Burnley 1-0 we're top on goals scored (GD the same +3 goals scored).

Arsenal on paper have games where it will be easier to boost their GD than we do, but I really think it will be won on points. I don't think Pep will even entertain scoring more goals if 3pts are at risk, unless we play Villa and need to in order to win the title.

Totally agree. Pep will be only focussed on winnign and nothing else. Maybe if it got to the last game and we needed to make up a few then he'd go for it then but that's all.

 

[supercity88]

Totally agree. Pep will be only focussed on winnign and nothing else. Maybe if it got to the last game and we needed to make up a few then he'd go for it then but that's all.

Picking up your nervousness - I think that's natural.

The mindset switches from "nothing to lose" to "everything to lose".

But we've got plenty of big name characters who have been in this situation, including the best manager on the planet.

To still be in with a chance, having drawn all of those games - Chelsea, Brighton, Sunderland, Forest, West Ham. We just have to be positive. It shouldn't be a close title race, Arsenal should have sewn this up. The fact they haven't and we're still in it is reason to be optimistic.

 

[alexmcity]

Totally agree. Pep will be only focussed on winnign and nothing else. Maybe if it got to the last game and we needed to make up a few then he'd go for it then but that's all.

Much depends on the state of the opposition: if we are 2 goals up at home and the other team don't look up for it, we are likely try to score a 3rd or 4th. That would be riskier away from home, as one goal for the home team can galvanise the atmosphere (Palace style).

We won't be rigid in our approach: if there are *reasonable* opportunities to improve our GD, we'll go for more goals.

 

[Claytop]

Picking up your nervousness - I think that's natural.

The mindset switches from "nothing to lose" to "everything to lose".

But we've got plenty of big name characters who have been in this situation, including the best manager on the planet.

To still be in with a chance, having drawn all of those games - Chelsea, Brighton, Sunderland, Forest, West Ham. We just have to be positive. It shouldn't be a close title race, Arsenal should have sewn this up. The fact they haven't and we're still in it is reason to be optimistic.

Christ, those 4 home draws keep annoying me, added to the 5 points we tossed away to Spurs...

Yes I know all teams can say similar things but still.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Picking up your nervousness - I think that's natural.

The mindset switches from "nothing to lose" to "everything to lose".

But we've got plenty of big name characters who have been in this situation, including the best manager on the planet.

To still be in with a chance, having drawn all of those games - Chelsea, Brighton, Sunderland, Forest, West Ham. We just have to be positive. It shouldn't be a close title race, Arsenal should have sewn this up. The fact they haven't and we're still in it is reason to be optimistic.

If push came to shove right now and I was forced to gamble everythign I own on red or blue, I'd put it on City without hesitation.

 

[MCFC1993]

I don't think it'll go to goal difference but from a landing a blow perspective, a big win tomorrow lands another punch

Don't want a Crystanbul type performance where we piss away a win going for it but anything over 5 tomorrow and you essentially add another point to the table.

 

[noseve]

If we beat Burnley 1-0 we're top on goals scored (GD the same +3 goals scored).

Arsenal on paper have games where it will be easier to boost their GD than we do, but I really think it will be won on points. I don't think Pep will even entertain scoring more goals if 3pts are at risk, unless we play Villa and need to in order to win the title.

I think that Arsenal will be quite chuffed if we win 1-0 tomorrow.

 

[Claytop]

Asked this in another thread but thought worth posting here too for opinions.

Would you take six 1-0 wins to close out the season from here?

 

[alexmcity]

I don't think it'll go to goal difference but from a landing a blow perspective, a big win tomorrow lands another punch

Don't want a Crystanbul type performance where we piss away a win going for it but anything over 5 tomorrow and you essentially add another point to the table.

If we win 5:0 tomorrow, some folks will decide it's done. It would be way premature, but the recency bias is powerful.

Personally, I think it's going to the wire and possibly GD. The end might be dramatic.

I think some underestimate Arsenal, whether due to wishful thinking or their recent record. But we saw the other day Odegaard makes them better. If Saka returns, they'll be (much) better than their recent performances. So, the hope for Arsenal's collapse may never materialise. We need to be at our very best.

 

[noseve]

They play 2 PL games before we do after Burnley. If they drop points I think we will do it. If they go 6 clear with 3 to play then its theirs.

So: everybody is buzzing about Sunday's result and then we consolidate with a win against Burnley, therefore presumably topping-up the good feeling.

But - without us kicking another ball - you're then handing the league to Arsenal? Have faith, man (or woman) :-)

 

[noseve]

Asked this in another thread but thought worth posting here too for opinions.

Would you take six 1-0 wins to close out the season from here?

Absotively posilutely!


No chance, are you crazy?


Not sure.