Predictions on the referendum

[Credo]

Not remotely surprised. I've yet to meet a Leaver was prepared to consider - or indeed listen to - negatives, or have any degree of open mind. Arguments suggesting why it's a bad idea are either glossed over, ignored, dismissed as scaremongering, or failing that, dismissed on the basis that those espousing these anti-Brexit views are corrupt. I wonder if they think the moon landings were faked?

Totally absurd. Deluded. Get your head out of the sand. We are headed for political and fiscal union. Ruled by bureaucracy and not democracy. Life pre 1975 was fine.

 

[Yaya_Tony]

Totally absurd. Deluded. Get your head out of the sand. We are headed for political and fiscal union. Ruled by bureaucracy and not democracy. Life pre 1975 was fine.

Are you being deliberately slow?? In what way is a common aim across Europe a bad thing?? All countries working together is a positive, Shirley.

 

[RichardDunneOwnGoal]

Are you being deliberately slow?? In what way is a common aim across Europe a bad thing?? All countries working together is a positive, Shirley.

No, mate. It's nice in theory, but in practice it's antidemocratic and undermines the sovereignty of nation states that are part of that union.

If you don't agree with the party line you have no choice but to get dragged along.

The greatest example of this is how Germany, the de facto head of the EU, brought political and social chaos rife with division to the union by making a decision, on their own terms, to throw open the borders to migrants and refugees last year.

Many nation states and their people disagreed with their policy, and the consequences it would have for their country, but were told 'tough luck'.

That is antidemocratic. In fact, it's close to an autocracy.

Nations that have been crippled by sanctions by Germany being literally then being told that they'd have to accept a quota of migrants and refugees as a result of Merkel's decision to throw open the EU's borders and advertise the fact with welcome signs. These same nations being told they'll be punished with fines if they refuse.

It's laughable.

It's a nice sounding utopia in theory, but in practice it's a complete joke.

One of many reasons to be against an ever closer union and support Brexit.

 

[Credo]

Are you being deliberately slow?? In what way is a common aim across Europe a bad thing?? All countries working together is a positive, Shirley.

This is not all countries working together in a free trade agreement. This is heading for political and fiscal Union.

 

[2sheikhs]

People warning of a drop in the value of the pound against the euro seem to be forgetting an important factor. They are comparing the current state of the eurozone. If one of the main net contributors to the eu decides to leave, do you not think it would have any bearing or impact on the eu?
Germany keep insisting that it's better for the UK to remain. Yes. Better for them. They'll have to virtually carry the burden of failing economies single handedly. The threat of tariffs on us is an empty threat too. Do you seriously think audi, BMW, Mercedes etc would want to risk sales of their cars in the UK?
If we leave, I think Europe as we know it will collapse. As their economies fail one by one, each country will blame migrants and vote in far right governments.

 

[whp.blue]

Not remotely surprised. I've yet to meet a Leaver was prepared to consider - or indeed listen to - negatives, or have any degree of open mind. Arguments suggesting why it's a bad idea are either glossed over, ignored, dismissed as scaremongering, or failing that, dismissed on the basis that those espousing these anti-Brexit views are corrupt. I wonder if they think the moon landings were faked?

Even if your main point is true is that any worse than the remain campaigners, that have lived for decades in an EU that is riddled with corruption and a hidden agenda of great Political union, still wish to stay in

 

[Chippy_boy]

Ever considered the possibility that the Remain case has simply failed to convince half of the audience? To portray the two sides as having totally different levels of listening skills is to fall into your own trap.

Well considering I started out undecided, I think I've listened and considered rather more than most!

And have I considered the possibility that the Remain camp have failed to convince half the audience? Yes, because patently that is true.

It's not exactly surprising though if the Remain camp come up with endless predictions from respected institutions and all of them are ignored or dismissed for the reasons I describe. There's people on the other thread here and if you had a time machine and it took them to the future, post Brexit, and actually *showed* them the UK in dire straights, they'd say the machine was faulty. You cannot argue with people who have completely closed minds, which is why I gave up on the other thread. (I am not seeking to change anyone's mind here by the way - waste of time. I merely make comment about how closed people's minds are.)

 

[whp.blue]

I gave up on the in and out campaigns as both just tried to scare everyone so i'm voting to stay in

I am amazed that someone like yourself who relies quite heavily on the NHS is voting remain, but it is your choice obviously, however for the sake of my disabled wife I hope you are on the loosing side.

 

[pirate]

sadly think we will brexit and the country and the continent will be fucked for decades

 

[Chippy_boy]

Even if your main point is true is that any worse than the remain campaigners, that have lived for decades in an EU that is riddled with corruption and a hidden agenda of great Political union, still wish to stay

I think you've got some serious misalignment of your views and actual reality. Perhaps there is some corruption in the EU? Isn't there everywhere? But riddled with it? Where's the evidence for that? You're just spouting the usual cheap Brexit lines that are easy on the ear but without any substance. And regards the goal of political union, it might be the goal of some, but who are these people allegedly dragging the 28 countries in this direction? Are you suggesting there is some sort of covert conspiracy that's been going on for decades behind closed doors and with different participants changed every few years? What do they do when people leave, swear them to silence or threaten to kill them? You should be writing thrillers mate.

And even if the EU decides rightly and properly and for all good reasons that it ultimately wants full political union (which incidentally I am not so sure would be quite as terrible as most people imagine), we have the full right of opt out anyway. Heck, we can even leave the EU any time we like.

No, I'm afraid it is the Leave camp who are deluded. You've been sold a pack of lies, not only about how terrible the EU is, but also about the completely unrealistic vision for the UK outside it. All this "free to negotiate our own trade deals" rubbish. Has anyone actually bothered to explain how this will be done, how long it will take and how these deals will be better for the UK? Why massive trading blocks like China and the US will suddenly want to buy so many more things from us compared to now? Because that's what we'd need to do. No, and funny that, isn't it. It's another cheap line designed to con people into thinking post Brexit we'll be just fine, when in fact, we won't be.

The Brexit leaders are ideologically opposed to EU membership* but most of them are not stupid and know full well the consequences for the UK economy of leaving will be dire. But that doesn't get votes so they paint this lovely rosy, complete fantasy vision of how great it will be. Well more fool anyone who believes that. We'll lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, as a minimum, perhaps even more. The aqueeze on public spending and on the NHS will be far, far worse. It will take decades to get back the levels of prosperity we've tossed in the bin. Bring it on eh?

*Boris isn't. He's actually quite pro EU but is prepared to say anything to further his own personal agenda and fuck the rest of us. The man is evil.

 

[Chippy_boy]

People warning of a drop in the value of the pound against the euro seem to be forgetting an important factor. They are comparing the current state of the eurozone. If one of the main net contributors to the eu decides to leave, do you not think it would have any bearing or impact on the eu?
Germany keep insisting that it's better for the UK to remain. Yes. Better for them. They'll have to virtually carry the burden of failing economies single handedly. The threat of tariffs on us is an empty threat too. Do you seriously think audi, BMW, Mercedes etc would want to risk sales of their cars in the UK?
If we leave, I think Europe as we know it will collapse. As their economies fail one by one, each country will blame migrants and vote in far right governments.

Europe will be in dire straights if we leave, for sure. But there is ZERO chance of no-strings, tariff-free trade deal. No chance whatsoever. There's a bunch of reasons why, but it ultimately boils down to the fact that if the EU agreed, they'd actually be rewarding us for leaving by giving us a better deal than any EU country has got, better than any country in the world as got. They'd be giving huge incentives for other EU countries to also leave. They cannot do that. There's also the small matter of 20 EU countries needing to agree, and most of the 28 would not agree because it's not in their interest. It's not happening no matter how much the German car makers may object.

 

[inbetween]

Well considering I started out undecided, I think I've listened and considered rather more than most!

And have I considered the possibility that the Remain camp have failed to convince half the audience? Yes, because patently that is true.

It's not exactly surprising though if the Remain camp come up with endless predictions from respected institutions and all of them are ignored or dismissed for the reasons I describe. There's people on the other thread here and if you had a time machine and it took them to the future, post Brexit, and actually *showed* them the UK in dire straights, they'd say the machine was faulty. You cannot argue with people who have completely closed minds, which is why I gave up on the other thread. (I am not seeking to change anyone's mind here by the way - waste of time. I merely make comment about how closed people's minds are.)

I bet not a single person has changed their mind on the basis of this forum. Most of the people who will decide this referendum are those who silently decide on the day and not those who actively have their minds made up and push that agenda. The amount of people actually talking about it and going onto forums and taking part in polls is a minority, the majority of them are brexiters because they are bound to be more passionate about the prospect of leaving. As with the general election though you cannot trust polls nor what a small amount of people say they will do. On the other side the government is totally reliant now on people both bottling it and voting to keep the status quo based upon the fact it is impossible to make a factually based informed decision. That is perhaps what is driving brexit, people will certainly be voting with their hearts and not their heads.

Ultimately to win I think a brexit vote would require a lot of optimism based debate from the entire country and there isn't any, it is mostly based on both anecdotal, assumption based immigration and sovereignty arguments on what might happen rather than factual positive, social and economic benefits. Also no-one trusts Farage, Boris, Gove, Cameron or any of our political class on either side so I think their campaigns have not made a jot of difference.

I think many who are undecided will on the day either not vote or vote to remain because no-one wants to put caution to the wind when they are uninformed on the things they personally think is important. I think that is what will keep us in Europe.

All the arguments I read on here don't sway me to vote to leave, I am not interested in immigration because I know from personal experience it is beneficial to our company and my grandads life was saved by immigrant doctors and nurses. For a start it is a fact that the NHS is suffering a critical staff shortage, that is a prime reason already to stay since we just do not know if it will be harder for the NHS to get staff. The problematic element of immigration is only ever talked about from local experience and not fact. If someone can name the exact number of European immigrants here on benefits then we could have a factual debate but we can't because no-one knows, they only talk from experience and skew that to their view as well.

I also am not interested in who governs us because it isn't like our current government or a Corbyn government are an actual great voting prospect if we suddenly gained all this power. Personally I am not voting to remain or to leave but to stay, I've changed my mind many times but at the minute I am voting to keep things as they are because for me personally I am doing alright, my family is doing alright and that isn't going to be changed by staying so the status quo it is.

Ironically I am just glad I am not in the country next week when the vote happens because it is getting tedious and boring now.

 

[2sheikhs]

The big business leaders run the economy in Germany. If we were to place a 20% tax for example on their goods as a retaliation, it would cripple them.
I was firmly in the remain camp, mainly because of workers rights. I've changed my mind now because of the ludicrous threats by the remain camp. The latest one by Osborne sounds more like he plans to punish the electorate for voting leave. He's in a position to slash public spending and increase taxes whether it's needed or not and just blame brexit.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I bet not a single person has changed their mind on the basis of this forum. Most of the people who will decide this referendum are those who silently decide on the day and not those who actively have their minds made up and push that agenda. The amount of people actually talking about it and going onto forums and taking part in polls is a minority, the majority of them are brexiters because they are bound to be more passionate about the prospect of leaving. As with the general election though you cannot trust polls nor what a small amount of people say they will do. On the other side the government is totally reliant now on people both bottling it and voting to keep the status quo based upon the fact it is impossible to make a factually based informed decision. That is perhaps what is driving brexit, people will certainly be voting with their hearts and not their heads.

Ultimately to win I think a brexit vote would require a lot of optimism based debate from the entire country and there isn't any, it is mostly based on both anecdotal, assumption based immigration and sovereignty arguments on what might happen rather than factual positive, social and economic benefits. Also no-one trusts Farage, Boris, Gove, Cameron or any of our political class on either side so I think their campaigns have not made a jot of difference.

I think many who are undecided will on the day either not vote or vote to remain because no-one wants to put caution to the wind when they are uninformed on the things they personally think is important. I think that is what will keep us in Europe.

All the arguments I read on here don't sway me to vote to leave, I am not interested in immigration because I know from personal experience it is beneficial to our company and my grandads life was saved by immigrant doctors and nurses. For a start it is a fact that the NHS is suffering a critical staff shortage, that is a prime reason already to stay since we just do not know if it will be harder for the NHS to get staff. The problematic element of immigration is only ever talked about from local experience and not fact. If someone can name the exact number of European immigrants here on benefits then we could have a factual debate but we can't because no-one knows, they only talk from experience and skew that to their view as well.

I also am not interested in who governs us because it isn't like our current government or a Corbyn government are an actual great voting prospect if we suddenly gained all this power. Personally I am not voting to remain or to leave but to stay, I've changed my mind many times but at the minute I am voting to keep things as they are because for me personally I am doing alright, my family is doing alright and that isn't going to be changed by staying so the status quo it is.

Ironically I am just glad I am not in the country next week when the vote happens because it is getting tedious and boring now.

What a great post.

I agree with *almost* all of it. The one line that slipped through though, "the fact it is impossible to make a factually based informed decision".

I don't agree with that. There's plenty of facts out there to help one come to a sensible conclusion. It's simply that those who are completely blinkered in favouring a particular view, don't want to hear them. Let me give you a single example: Is it not plainly obvious that the majority of third party analysts, commentators, think-tanks, what-have-you, are opposed to Brexit? Anecdotally there are MANY more of them than there are for the Remain side. I believe the ration is about 9:1. Whereas these sorts of organisations do get it wrong from time to time, nevertheless, the fact that the overwhelming majority are anti-Brexit, and they come from all parts of the spectrum - left, right, business, governement, domestic, international, male, female - across the board there is a consensus. This should surely be useful as an indicator for people as to whether it's a good idea to leave or not.

Yet I've seen a previously respected poster on here try to argue that this is not true and that most of these anti-Brexit views are made up and that there's just as many analysts who are pro-Brexit. This isn't from some loon, by the way, this is a previously respected poster. I emphasise the word, "previously".

 

[halfcenturyup]

sadly think we will brexit and the country and the continent will be fucked for decades

Just out of interest, why do you think the continent and the UK will be fucked for decades if we leave?

 

[Blue Til Death]

Now Osbourne has threatened to put up taxes, on top of the threat to pensions, if we don't vote to remain, I reckon that just about seals it and a thumping win for the Brexiteers will ensue...!!!
60/40 to leave now...!

 

[Chippy_boy]

Now Osbourne has threatened to put up taxes, on top of the threat to pensions, if we don't vote to remain, I reckon that just about seals it and a thumping win for the Brexiteers will ensue...!!!
60/40 to leave now...!

How fucking tiresome, another Brexit poster with his hands over his ears. People on both sides are saying that the economy will take an initial hit, even if there's argument about whether it will recover or not. So that means less money in taxes and a problem with current government spending commitments.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Just out of interest, why do you think the continent and the UK will be fucked for decades if we leave?

I'll answer it for him.

The UK's economy will be knocked sideways. Since Friday when the Brexit camp pulled ahead in the polls, we've seen £76bn wiped off the value of FTSE 100. That's just the FTSE 100 - not the whole market - and that's just on a *possibility* that Brexit might win. The markets will crash if Brexit win, and if you think that's pure speculation, it isn't - there's very good reasons why. First, it means that we'll have years of uncertainty ahead with businesses not knowing what the trading relationship with Europe is going to be like and therefore unable to make strategic investment decisions. investments will be put on hold and growth will stall. We'll probably fall back into recession, at least in the short term. In the medium term, businesses that have invested in the UK so that they can export to Europe will review there strategies and some of them will decide to shut plants or move production overseas. If the reason they came to the UK was in part because the UK is in the EU and is a gateway to European exports then if that ceases to be the case, we can't expect all of these businesses to stay put, can we.

Professor Minford - just about the only notable economist the Brexit camp has managed to field - said in 2012, “Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing <from the UK>".

International confidence in the UK's economy will be dented and the value of the pound will fall considerably. Whilst this will actually help our exports, it will push up the costs of our raw materials, food etc. Inflation will rise, and we'll probably have to put up interest rates. Costs of mortgages will go up so people will have less money to spend and that will depress the economy further. Labour costs will increase, also fueled by a decline in EU migrants filling the low paid jobs, leading to increased labour shortage (we ALREADY have more vacancies in the economy than unemployment). HIgher costs makes our productivity even lower (it's already much lower than the world's leading economies), making our products less competitive and sales will decline. We'll struggle to meet current budget commitments (actually we'll simply fail) and since we don't want to increase borrowing (it's already perilously high and failing to keep it under control would result in our credit rating being downgraded and interest rates going higher still), we'd have to make even deeper cuts to public services and extend austerity for several years longer than planned.

If we are ever to recover from this, it will be through increased international (non-EU) trade, but it will take years to negotiate all of the trade deals we need and even then there's no guarantee that these currently non-existant deals will yield enough extra revenue to plug the gap.

On the EU side, they'll lose a chunk of exports to the UK since their goods will be much more expensive, both due to the exchange rate and the tariffs that will inevitably be applied. The UK's leaving will very likely fuel the desire for referendums in other countries, particularly the Netherlands and France. Conceivably, countries such as Italy which are already in a precipitous position could be pushed into bankruptcy. If the Italian banks were to fail, the amount of money needed to support them would be many times greater than that for Greece and with strained finances in Germany already (heightened by their loss of exports to the UK), they would have no choice but to allow Italy to leave the Euro and devalue. Greece would surely follow, and then Portugal and Ireland. The Euro would be dead. If that happens, the whole of the EU is thrown into turmoil and that alone would take decades to recover from.

I could go on.

 

[supercity88]

I'll answer it for him.

The UK's economy will be knocked sideways. Since Friday when the Brexit camp pulled ahead in the polls, we've seen £76bn wiped off the value of FTSE 100. That's just the FTSE 100 - not the whole market - and that's just on a *possibility* that Brexit might win. The markets will crash if Brexit win, and if you think that's pure speculation, it isn't - there's very good reasons why. First, it means that we'll have years of uncertainty ahead with businesses not knowing what the trading relationship with Europe is going to be like and therefore unable to make strategic investment decisions. investments will be put on hold and growth will stall. We'll probably fall back into recession, at least in the short term. In the medium term, businesses that have invested in the UK so that they can export to Europe will review there strategies and some of them will decide to shut plants or move production overseas. If the reason they came to the UK was in part because the UK is in the EU and is a gateway to European exports then if that ceases to be the case, we can expect all of these businesses to stay put, can we.

Professor Minford - just about the only notable economist the Brexit camp has managed to field - said in 2012, “Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing <from the UK>".

International confidence in the UK's economy will be dented and the value of the pound will fall considerably. Whilst this will actually help our exports, it will push up the costs of our raw materials, food etc. Inflation will rise, and we'll probably have to put up interest rates. Costs of mortgages will go up so people will have less money to spend and that will depress the economy further. Labour costs will increase, also fueled by a decline in EU migrants filling the low paid jobs, leading to increased labour shortage (we ALREADY have more vacancies in the economy than unemployment). HIgher costs makes our productivity even lower (it's already much lower than the world's leading economies), making our products less competitive and sales will decline. We'll struggle to meet current budget commitments (actually we'll simply fail) and since we don't want to increase borrowing (it's already perilously high and failing to keep it under control would result in our credit rating being downgraded and interest rates going higher still), we'd have to make even deeper cuts to public services and extend austerity for several years longer than planned.

If we are ever to recover from this, it will be through increased international (non-EU) trade, but it will take years to negotiate all of the trade deals we need and even then there's no guarantee that these currently non-existant deals will yield enough extra revenue to plug the gap.

On the EU side, they'll lose a chunk of exports to the UK since their goods will be much more expensive, both due to the exchange rate and the tariffs that will inevitably be applied. The UK's leaving will very likely fuel the desire for referendums in other countries, particularly the Netherlands and France. Conceivably, countries such as Italy which are already in a precipitous position could be pushed into bankruptcy. If the Italian banks were to fail, the amount of money needed to support them would be many times greater than that for Greece and with strained finances in Germany already (heightened by their loss of exports to the UK), they would have no choice but to allow Italy to leave the Euro and devalue. Greece would surely follow, and then Portugal and Ireland. The Euro would be dead. If that happens, the whole of the EU is thrown into turmoil and that alone would take decades to recover from.

I could go on.

Absolutely brilliant post that - really well written. I was initially 100% in the remain camp but then spoke to a lot of the older generation who remember the country pre-EU membership and are in the leave camp and it led to me being a little more on the fence. The CEO of the company I work for spoke yesterday of the impact on my industry and what it will mean for and from a purely selfish reason that gives me no logical reason to vote anything other than remain - your post is an excellent summary though.

 

[Citizen of Legoland]

Absolutely brilliant post that - really well written. I was initially 100% in the remain camp but then spoke to a lot of the older generation who remember the country pre-EU membership and are in the leave camp and it led to me being a little more on the fence. The CEO of the company I work for spoke yesterday of the impact on my industry and what it will mean for and from a purely selfish reason that gives me no logical reason to vote anything other than remain - your post is an excellent summary though.

A lot of people in the remain camp are using the recent FTSE performance as a basis to prove economic catastrophe, when the reality is no-one knows for sure what will happen, as there is no comparative precedent.

The only certainty will be uncertainty if we vote leave, however Chippy Boy's comments, albeit mainly conjecture in my view, partly show how entwined we appear to be within the European system, and I feel further integration is more dangerous given the continued expansion of the EU, especially as we, as residents, don't have the proper representation to go with it - individual national values and needs will always come to the fore above political allegiances.