FTSE-100 Index

[blueinsa]

You chose to comment so did you read the article?
Thought not.

I read it and disagreed with it, hence the sarcasm because its nothing but project fear in action and word for word what Mr Fumble peddles.

Thanks for sticking your nose in though Len ;-)

 

[Manc in London]

It fell below $1.20 for about an hour and a half. It's down about 1% which is well within normal fluctuations. Some people will use anything as justification of their entrenched positions.

That doesn't quite explain the fall from $1.50.

Yes, we should expect fluctuations but the trends is clearly downwards. It is clearly due to Brexit. What other reason could it be?

 

[Len Rum]

I might be wide of the mark here as I don’t work for the Department for International Trade or run my own export business, but surely it must be easier for the UK to set up a trade deal with a non-EU country than it is for the EU as a whole to do it. For the EU to set up a deal, all 28 (soon to be 27) countries have to agree the deal and no doubt all EU countries have their own personal interests. The recent example of the Canada deal being held to ransom by a region of Belgium illustrates this. A bilateral agreement only needs to consider the interests of two parties not 29.

I work for one of Britain’s biggest exporters and most of our exports are to countries with which the EU does not have a deal. It doesn’t stop the exports going ahead. It makes sense to me that once out of the EU, some of these countries may be happy to set up a deal with the UK if it makes their imports from us cheaper. I suspect the biggest challenge for a post Brexit Britain will be to agree a trade deal with the EU due to the need for 28 countries to agree it. Deals with other countries should be easy by comparison. Maybe the financial markets realise this so a weak pound combined with the prospect of UK trade deals with countries not currently in a deal with the EU may be another factor in the rise of the index.

As I've said previously, I didn't vote for Brexit as I believe that membership of the EU brings us more than just trade benefits but I suspect being out of the single market won't be the disaster some people are expecting and it's the duty of our politicians and civil servants to make the best of it whatever their personal opinions.

Yeah all 53 deals that we currently 'piggy back' onto by virtue of being a member of the EU might be quicker to re negotiate when we're out of the EU.
It's still going to take a long time after 1st April 2019 whereas the impact of hard Brexit will be immediate, so as a minimum there will be a transition period of economic pain which is what even the RWNJ economists agree with ( in the absence of a transition deal, which even free market economists like Dominic Lawson think is essential).

 

[Len Rum]

I read it and disagreed with it, hence the sarcasm because its nothing but project fear in action and word for word what Mr Fumble peddles.

Thanks for sticking your nose in though Len ;-)

No probs.
Would welcome your valued comments on the article.
Yours
Len.

 

[blueinsa]

No probs.
Would welcome your valued comments on the article.
Yours
Len.

Give us an hour or so mate as im busy feeding the kids right now and the wife has that look on her face that says "get the fuck off bluemoon for 5 mins" pmsl

 

[west didsblue]

You chose to comment so did you read the article?
Thought not.

Yes I did actually.
I told him he'd lost the plot because he bizarrely said I'd capitulated.

 

[west didsblue]

That doesn't quite explain the fall from $1.50.

Yes, we should expect fluctuations but the trends is clearly downwards. It is clearly due to Brexit. What other reason could it be?

I didn't say it wasn't. I was talking about the minor change after news of May's speech came out.

 

[west didsblue]

Yeah all 53 deals that we currently 'piggy back' onto by virtue of being a member of the EU might be quicker to re negotiate when we're out of the EU.
It's still going to take a long time after 1st April 2019 whereas the impact of hard Brexit will be immediate, so as a minimum there will be a transition period of economic pain which is what even the RWNJ economists agree with ( in the absence of a transition deal, which even free market economists like Dominic Lawson think is essential).

I agree. We can, however, prioritise deals with countries that we do the most trade.
What is your point?

 

[The perfect fumble]

Yeah all 53 deals that we currently 'piggy back' onto by virtue of being a member of the EU might be quicker to re negotiate when we're out of the EU.
It's still going to take a long time after 1st April 2019 whereas the impact of hard Brexit will be immediate, so as a minimum there will be a transition period of economic pain which is what even the RWNJ economists agree with ( in the absence of a transition deal, which even free market economists like Dominic Lawson think is essential).

The hard Brexiters have tried to head this off at the pass, they don't trust the Chancellor, the transition deal has all the hallmarks of a permanent one and they're right. Logic dictates that an interim deal is best for all parties, for the economy and for Europe and it is the preferred route for the money men and those that speak for them, it also keeps the flame alive for remainers and would go a long way to getting them on board. If it is achievable and sold to the public well it could gain traction and it will isolate the hard Brexiters in cabinet. Interestingly all the interim deal rhetoric is coming from the Chancellor and not Davis, Fox and Johnson, we will see who has May's ear after tomorrows speech. If May signals hard Brexit tomorrow all sorts of shit will hit the fan, the fallout will dictate whether an interim deal is a flyer or not.

At the moment this is all about the politics, hard and soft Brexiters slugging it out in the Tory government and in the background is the Supreme Court and they look set to hand the final say to Parliament.

In a way you have to admire the Tories, they don't give a fuck about the man on the Clapham Omnibus, unless it's election year, and as they're confident they could win an election any time they call it, they're free to fuck him, his wife and the family dog if they want, content in the knowledge they'll be cracking jokes about it for another five years.

 

[Len Rum]

I agree. We can, however, prioritise deals with countries that we do the most trade.
What is your point?

My point is that there will be no ( possible) gain without (definite) pain.

 

[Len Rum]

Give us an hour or so mate as im busy feeding the kids right now and the wife has that look on her face that says "get the fuck off bluemoon for 5 mins" pmsl

Notwithstanding your family commitments, awaiting your comments at your earliest convenience.
I remain sir your humble and obedient servant.
Yours
Leonard ( Rum) esq.
16th ultimo in the year of our Lord two thousand and seventeen.

 

[west didsblue]

My point is that there will be no ( possible) gain without (definite) pain.

Which is why I voted remain. Unfortunately 52% didn't so we have to make the best deals we can and stop moaning about losing the vote.

 

[smudgedj]

That doesn't quite explain the fall from $1.50.

Yes, we should expect fluctuations but the trends is clearly downwards. It is clearly due to Brexit. What other reason could it be?

Because it's central bank policy to weaken the currency. Brexit just helped.

 

[blueinsa]

Notwithstanding your family commitments, awaiting your comments at your earliest convenience.
I remain sir your humble and obedient servant.
Yours
Leonard ( Rum) esq.
16th ultimo in the year of our Lord two thousand and seventeen.

Back.

He basically paints a bleak picture with huge obstacles at every single point because he doesn't want us to leave, hence his very last comment which basically begs for a rethink of the brexit vote.

I dont accept that argument whatsoever. We are one of the biggest economies in the world and will have no issue going out on our own and holding our own. We will forge new trade deals with anyone and everyone we want because business and countries cannot afford to say no to us and anyone thinking otherwise is just wrong imo and talking the nation down. We will be bust right now starting the discussions as seen with the Trump interview, the New Zealand PM the other day and nothing will or can stop that process. yes i agree that formally we cant sign any deal until we have left but until we have left, we are still paying in to the EU and will still be trading as is now so we wont face some trade black hole.

We have a chance as a nation to make this work, be positive and show that their is life after the EU and its one i think we will take and its a path that others within the EU including the French and Germans will also take sooner rather than later because i believe the EU is finished, as is the Euro as a currency.

I dont pretend to be an expert and i dont pretend to have all the answers to what will inevitably be a difficult and testing time for us all but i dont believe being negative and defeatest and turning our backs on what the people of this country voted for is the answer so i will instead be positive and look forward to a bright future.

Yours humbly........

 

[blueish swede]

I agree. We can, however, prioritise deals with countries that we do the most trade.
What is your point?

It's not that easy. There is no point having a deal for helium if you don't have any balloons and no point having a deal for balloons if you don't have any helium.

Do you prioritize on volume or value? What if you run out of car tyres before a deal is in place? Shortage of goods is going to push up prices - and they won't come down again. So do you deal with Malaysia first to keep food delivery trucks going?

Which contries do you put at the front of the queue? Norway - to keep the oil flowing? How are the Malaysians going to feel about their plywood being denied access while the Norwegians are free to sell? Will they block a deal on tyres? Or do you bet on Turkey to keep your cars on the road?

What if the Turks want visa free travel as part of a trade deal? Do you say yes, or bet on the Malaysians blinking?

Most trade deals are simple mutually beneficial bi-lateral agreements that cover products or sectors that the two nations are weak and strong on respectively. We'll send your our butter and you can sell us ball bearings. Bilateral free-trade agreements are like hens teeth. What does the UK have to offer?

The UK could end up with fifteen different trade agreements with New Zealand and with every other country it does a deal with.

 

[west didsblue]

It's not that easy. There is no point having a deal for helium if you don't have any balloons and no point having a deal for balloons if you don't have any helium.

Do you prioritize on volume or value? What if you run out of car tyres before a deal is in place? Shortage of goods is going to push up prices - and they won't come down again. So do you deal with Malaysia first to keep food delivery trucks going?

Which contries do you put at the front of the queue? Norway - to keep the oil flowing? How are the Malaysians going to feel about their plywood being denied access while the Norwegians are free to sell? Will they block a deal on tyres? Or do you bet on Turkey to keep your cars on the road?

What if the Turks want visa free travel as part of a trade deal? Do you say yes, or bet on the Malaysians blinking?

Most trade deals are simple mutually beneficial bi-lateral agreements that cover products or sectors that the two nations are weak and strong on respectively. We'll send your out butter and you can sell us ball bearings. Bilateral free-trade agreements are like hens teeth. What does the UK have to offer?

The UK could end up with fifteen different trade agreements with New Zealand and with every other country it does a deal with.

Are you suggesting we shouldn't bother trying and default to WTO rules? Seems a bit defeatist.

 

[Len Rum]

Back.

He basically paints a bleak picture with huge obstacles at every single point because he doesn't want us to leave, hence his very last comment which basically begs for a rethink of the brexit vote.

I dont accept that argument whatsoever. We are one of the biggest economies in the world and will have no issue going out on our own and holding our own. We will forge new trade deals with anyone and everyone we want because business and countries cannot afford to say no to us and anyone thinking otherwise is just wrong imo and talking the nation down. We will be bust right now starting the discussions as seen with the Trump interview, the New Zealand PM the other day and nothing will or can stop that process. yes i agree that formally we cant sign any deal until we have left but until we have left, we are still paying in to the EU and will still be trading as is now so we wont face some trade black hole.

We have a chance as a nation to make this work, be positive and show that their is life after the EU and its one i think we will take and its a path that others within the EU including the French and Germans will also take sooner rather than later because i believe the EU is finished, as is the Euro as a currency.

I dont pretend to be an expert and i dont pretend to have all the answers to what will inevitably be a difficult and testing time for us all but i dont believe being negative and defeatest and turning our backs on what the people of this country voted for is the answer so i will instead be positive and look forward to a bright future.

Yours humbly........

There will be a 'black hole' though if we revert to WTO rules on 1st April 2019 ( as seems likely) because EU trade will be badly hit ( mainly non tariff barriers) but there will be nothing to replace any immediate loss in EU trade ( or other trade which we piggy back onto as a result of our EU membership) because of the time delay in getting trade deals outside the EU in place.
Your forecast of the collapse of the EU and/or Euro is a separate debate. It would be bad news all round but the Government can't plan a negotiating strategy now on something that may or may not happen.
PS thanks for PM

 

[Manc in London]

I didn't say it wasn't. I was talking about the minor change after news of May's speech came out.

Ah, sorry. Should have read previous posts

 

[Manc in London]

Because it's central bank policy to weaken the currency. Brexit just helped.

?

 

[The perfect fumble]

There will be a 'black hole' though if we revert to WTO rules on 1st April 2019 ( as seems likely) because EU trade will be badly hit ( mainly non tariff barriers) but there will be nothing to replace any immediate loss in EU trade ( or other trade which we piggy back onto as a result of our EU membership) because of the time delay in getting trade deals outside the EU in place.
Your forecast of the collapse of the EU and/or Euro is a separate debate. It would be bad news all round but the Government can't plan a negotiating strategy now on something that may or may not happen.
PS thanks for PM

The outcome of the negotiations really hinge on the relative strengths of politics over economics when it comes to the hard graft of haggling. The EU has been stressing politics over economics, that Britain's departure has weakened EU unity and she must be punished for it, she cannot be seen to benefit from Brexit and she will not.

We've been banging out the economic "why cut off your nose to spite your face" argument, so we've had the Governor of the Bank of England talking up the importance of the City and Hammond stressing the importance of the UK as a market for EU goods and threatening to turn us into a tax haven. Boris tried this in his early days as foreign secretary but stopped when he insulted every European he spoke to.

Pivotal to this is Germany, all the indications are she's full square behind the political argument, but if she could be persuaded by the economics we would get a much easier ride. Theresa May might, though these are early days, be trying to position herself as honest broker between Trump and Merkel. Trump, even by his own standards, seems overly keen to pick a fight with Germany for no apparent reason, conspirator theorist say it's all to do with Russia, but regardless, something is going on. If May could patch things up between the two of them, turn the gas down on it, or at the very least get Trump to stop threatening German car manufacturers, then Merkel might be a bit more persuadable over Brexit. It should be remembered that Obama bypassed the UK when dealing with Europe and was very pally with Merkel, that's not how the special relationship is supposed to work and it is one of the reasons Farage talks so scathingly about Obama. If the Anglo Saxon conspiracy (as the French call it) is going to be dusted off and back on the road and May plays her cards right we might come out of this Brexit bullshit with our trousers, if not our shirt.