Claudio Bravo - 2016/2017 performances (continued)

[Bill]

Is he really? Really? Or are you exaggerating just a tad there. No way have you even heard of every keeper in the league, let alone watched them enough to know ffs

I would take ANY prem goalie over him.

 

[Bill]

Dont take Bill too serious mate. He loves to come on here and goes straight to the Bravo topic to get the attention he is so desperately looking for. Nothing to do with Bravo let alone his knowledge of PL goalies.

bless.

 

[cucumberman]

"The 'difficulty' part of the model factors the location from where a shot was taken, shot destination, shot power and whether the keeper's view was impaired."

Does it factor in one ones, proximity of defender to striker when taking a shot? If not, why not?

This post is not a defence of Bravo before anyone starts.

I have done this analysis before but abandoned it becaus I didnt have access to data showing bravo's position when the shots were taken. good to see that there are others looking at shot difficulty but they really need to consid r positioning even though it can be implied that a goal conceded is also attributed to poor positioning, among other shortcomings.

The reason why the factors you mentioned are not included is because in 1v1 it is influenced by the discretion of the keeper. The chances of being successful in 1v1 is correlated to the decision of the keeper to come out, and in what way, or to track the run and in what way, so it adds an unmeasurable variable. though the issue of coming out or not is an interesting investigation itself. whereas when lookinh at where shot was taken, shot destination, shot power the variables are more limited, which are bravo's shotstopping ability, and to a lesser extent his positioning, the keeper has no other option when saving a shot but to keep it out, but In 1v1 the keeper has the option of coming out, staying, tracking the run etc which makes analysis unreliable unless prerequisite data on why the keeper decides to act in 1v1 has been established and its values referred.

Proximity of the defender also introduces the defender variable and for this, more complex analysis will have to be involved and the numbers wont be descriptive but will be inferential statistics not for casual reading. They can factor in the points that you mentioned and several others, but they decided to factor in only the ones that occur with every single shot in the history of football, i.e. shot location, shot distance, shot power, and shot visibility.

I think the way they did their analysis is reliable enough through acknowledging the factors involved. It is not a perfect picture because football is dynamic and the keeper is not an exclusive component of a team, but it is quite close to trying to understand what is going on.

 

[Rolee]

I have done this analysis before but abandoned it becaus I didnt have access to data showing bravo's position when the shots were taken. good to see that there are others looking at shot difficulty but they really need to consid r positioning even though it can be implied that a goal conceded is also attributed to poor positioning, among other shortcomings.

The reason why the factors you mentioned are not included is because in 1v1 it is influenced by the discretion of the keeper. The chances of being successful in 1v1 is correlated to the decision of the keeper to come out, and in what way, or to track the run and in what way, so it adds an unmeasurable variable. though the issue of coming out or not is an interesting investigation itself. whereas when lookinh at where shot was taken, shot destination, shot power the variables are more limited, which are bravo's shotstopping ability, and to a lesser extent his positioning, the keeper has no other option when saving a shot but to keep it out, but In 1v1 the keeper has the option of coming out, staying, tracking the run etc which makes analysis unreliable unless prerequisite data on why the keeper decides to act in 1v1 has been established and its values referred.

Proximity of the defender also introduces the defender variable and for this, more complex analysis will have to be involved and the numbers wont be descriptive but will be inferential statistics not for casual reading. They can factor in the points that you mentioned and several others, but they decided to factor in only the ones that occur with every single shot in the history of football, i.e. shot location, shot distance, shot power, and shot visibility.

I think the way they did their analysis is reliable enough through acknowledging the factors involved. It is not a perfect picture because football is dynamic and the keeper is not an exclusive component of a team, but it is quite close to trying to understand what is going on.

I don't agree that they're reliable mate, in fact I think it's absurd to suggest they are.

 

[kaz7]

So your inferring clean sheets to be totally down to the keeper. Is that right?

You seem to be the only one who can't accept he is not making any saves,he has a bad technique and every other team know it

 

[malg]

Dont take Bill too serious mate. He loves to come on here and goes straight to the Bravo topic to get the attention he is so desperately looking for. Nothing to do with Bravo let alone his knowledge of PL goalies.

To be honest here, I've defended Bravo and am not a fan of the personal abuse he gets on here. However, I don't think Bill has ever got personal about this, he just has never rated Bravo as a keeper - and has stood by himself for a lot of that time. I just wish Bravo would start saving a some, so that us few (and we're becoming fewer by the week) that are endeavouring to defend him have something to come back with.

All that said, the team aren't performing either, but Blues love a scapegoat and at the minute it's Bravo - and Kolarov when he plays left back!

 

[mosssideblue]

You seem to be the only one who can't accept he is not making any saves,he has a bad technique and every other team know it

No. What I cannot accept that he is responsible for every goal conceded which quite a few on here seem to be the truth. Yes, he could do better, but when faced with so many clear cut opportunities we hand the opposition, it isn't surprising we are leaking goals for fun.

 

[kaz7]

No. What I cannot accept that he is responsible for every goal conceded which quite a few on here seem to be the truth. Yes, he could do better, but when faced with so many clear cut opportunities we hand the opposition, it isn't surprising we are leaking goals for fun.

Do you think he has good technique? do you think he could save more than he does?

 

[mosssideblue]

No, you are inferring it. Read the definition on your word of the day toilet paper before you get giddy about applying it.

Also, when the 'keeper concedes 14 out of their last 22 shots faced then it's obvious that the 'keeper is a big problem in terms of not keeping a clean sheet. As well as being fucking shite.

Gen question.

If Joe had been in nets and faced those exact same 22 shots, how many goals would we have conceded?

 

[mosssideblue]

Do you think he has good technique? do you think he could save more than he does?

He wouldn't have got to where he has in the game with poor technique - would you agree?
Yes, he could be doing better. A lot of the goals we have conceded would still have been conceded irrespective of keeper so, all I can offer is that he is not performing to the level of his ability, which considering the turmoil in front of him is not too difficult to understand.

 

[kaz7]

He wouldn't have got to where he has in the game with poor technique - would you agree?
Yes, he could be doing better. A lot of the goals we have conceded would still have been conceded irrespective of keeper so, all I can offer is that he is not performing to the level of his ability, which considering the turmoil in front of him is not too difficult to understand.

He is poor in a blue shirt and that is all that matters and no i don't agree a lot of the goals would have not been saved by others,keepers in the prem are making better saves than him several times a game,i watch every prem game on sky and bt so i'm not bullshitting on that

 

[Chippy_boy]

He is poor in a blue shirt and that is all that matters and no i don't agree a lot of the goals would have not been saved by others,keepers in the prem are making better saves than him several times a game,i watch every prem game on sky and bt so i'm not bullshitting on that

I was thinking the other night how many more points we'd have now if we had a really top keeper like Neuer (or wash my mouth out) De Gea in goal. I think we'd have got something out of the Chelsea game for a start, so that would mean the gap would be 7 points now (or less had we won). And maybe another 2 or 3 points minimum from elsewhere. We'd be right in the race if we had a top keeper I think.

 

[abu13]

I'm still of the mind that while Pep continues to pick him that I will give him my full support, personally I think the time is here to give him a break for a couple of games but then I don't have to pick the team.

The worrying thing is that there is a good keeper in there but he is not showing it yet, he seems to be a confidence player and he is very low on this at the moment.

He is costing us goals and he is costing us points, now if Pep looks at this as being a season to accustom him to the league and then next season he turns it around then I can live with that. However it seems to be a risky path to follow.

 

[kaz7]

I'm still of the mind that while Pep continues to pick him that I will give him my full support, personally I think the time is here to give him a break for a couple of games but then I don't have to pick the team.

The worrying thing is that there is a good keeper in there but he is not showing it yet, he seems to be a confidence player and he is very low on this at the moment.

He is costing us goals and he is costing us points, now if Pep looks at this as being a season to accustom him to the league and then next season he turns it around then I can live with that. However it seems to be a risky path to follow.

I very much agree with that,he needs supporting at the games and i hope he gets it,i don't agree with giving players a hard time at the games and i never booed a player ever,here is to talk about him so that's what we do

 

[edinburgh123]

Didn't see this posted, but says it all really. http://www.skysports.com/football/n...rpool-man-city-man-utd-arsenal-keepers-ranked

Whilst all info like this can be taken with a pinch of salt on the basis no 2 shots/attempts etc are always the same - I found it interesting that if I was to 'rate the keepers' - that is exactly the order I would be them in (perhaps the 2 Scouse keepers being on a par). My only worry is Willy - whilst probably being a better bet at present is actually not much better he has the same concrete hands as Bravo.

 

[MarsLlama]

I thought I'd debunk the myth that he's cost us by listing all the goals where he could have done better, but it's really backfired because there's a lot more than I thought:

Ibrahimovic vs Manchester United (Stones partly to blame too)
De Roon vs Middlesbrough (This goal absolutely cost us 2 points)
Wickham vs Crystal Palace (Debatable)
Willian vs Chelsea (Arguably cost us long-term)
Vardy vs Leicester (Again not clear-cut his fault)
King vs Leicester
Mee vs Burnley
Mirallas vs Everton
Lookman vs Everton

9 goals. In my view, four points.

Plus the sending off that destroyed our game against Barcelona away, although I personally doubt we'd have gotten anything from there anyway.

 

[balotelli's back pocket]

I thought I'd debunk the myth that he's cost us by listing all the goals where he could have done better, but it's really backfired because there's a lot more than I thought:

Ibrahimovic vs Manchester United (Stones partly to blame too) yes
De Roon vs Middlesbrough (This goal absolutely cost us 2 points) very debatable
Wickham vs Crystal Palace (Debatable) debatable
Willian vs Chelsea (Arguably cost us long-term) yep
Vardy vs Leicester (Again not clear-cut his fault) no chance
King vs Leicester nope
Mee vs Burnley fouled
Mirallas vs Everton no way
Lookman vs Everton definitely

9 goals. In my view, four points.

Plus the sending off that destroyed our game against Barcelona away, although I personally doubt we'd have gotten anything from there anyway.

In my opinion, 3 - 5 goals at most. Not sure its fair to say that he alone yas cost us points though.

 

[mosssideblue]

He is poor in a blue shirt and that is all that matters and no i don't agree a lot of the goals would have not been saved by others,keepers in the prem are making better saves than him several times a game,i watch every prem game on sky and bt so i'm not bullshitting on that

Karen, you are a respected poster on here but unless they are facing the exact same shot under the exact same circumstance, you nor anyone else can say they would have been saved. Surely you see that? If not, then, in your humble opinion, how many of those 22 shots on goals would have resulted in a goal not being scored?

 

[mosssideblue]

I thought I'd debunk the myth that he's cost us by listing all the goals where he could have done better, but it's really backfired because there's a lot more than I thought:

Ibrahimovic vs Manchester United (Stones partly to blame too)
De Roon vs Middlesbrough (This goal absolutely cost us 2 points)
Wickham vs Crystal Palace (Debatable)
Willian vs Chelsea (Arguably cost us long-term)
Vardy vs Leicester (Again not clear-cut his fault)
King vs Leicester
Mee vs Burnley
Mirallas vs Everton
Lookman vs Everton

9 goals. In my view, four points.

Plus the sending off that destroyed our game against Barcelona away, although I personally doubt we'd have gotten anything from there anyway.

That's all well and good, but to make your argument stand up, you must surely re run your calcs with how many more we may have conceded if Bravo was not in net and then sum the two, unless you are saying none that is

 

[kaz7]

Karen, you are a respected poster on here but unless they are facing the exact same shot under the exact same circumstance, you nor anyone else can say they would have been saved. Surely you see that? If not, then, in your humble opinion, how many of those 22 shots on goals would have resulted in a goal not being scored?

Neither side can prove anything,what i can see is other keepers making saves every game that he is not,i appreciate your stance but if you are happy you are easily pleased,we both want better so we'll have to agree to disagree