goatersnipple
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My grannies in a nursing home.
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COVID-19 — Coronavirus
- Thread starter urban genie
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Deleted member 77198
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Just switch all the stats round. The stats concentrate on the negative and make us naturally (purposely) worried.I don't mind admitting that this is all starting to really get to me now. I dont know if its because in the absence of football or sport in general I've spent more time watching the news / reading stuff on social media but it's just all so unrelentingly negative and worrying.
But if you start thinking “96.5-99.2% of people recover from this when getting it, 99.8% of people our age recover from it”, it sounds a hell of a lot different.
Blue Hefner
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skivitheblue9320
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Intreresting and shocking mesage I have received off a friend from the UAE, makes you think, read once and thn twice and take it in.
Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
I'm not saying this isn't a possibility but is there any proof that this is genuine?
I ask because there are plenty of people out there who, for whatever reason, are spreading falsehoods about this.
skivitheblue9320
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True Uncle, very true.What hand gel? The Nesbitt's have got it all in their panic buying bullshit
kaz7
Well-Known Member
I am not sure it is really possible to avoid it,i think the person recieving it should empty the products out onto the floor,dispose of the bags,wash their hands before putting the shopping away and after as well,it is then up to them to not touch it then touch their faces,that is only my ideas not official guidanceHas there been any guidance, in terms avoiding contamination of produce and bags, on doing the shopping for the elderly?
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Deleted member 77198
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Twitter is the biggest place for fake news in humanity. I believe next to fuck all I ever see on there! It’s proper full of WUMs. More made up bollocks from your average Twitter poster than what comes out of North Korea.
i8rags
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Fuck me, so so sorry to hear this, what the fuck is our great strategy, carry on movies would love this shit, we are run by fuckin numptys, luckily as a nation we are coming to our own decisions, I would sacrifice myself for my family and our pm goes fucking missing. Get a grip and tell us what is going on. Close our island close our schools and protect the fucking people, make some decisions boris, 3 days he’s been missing, drag him out of no10 and give us some reassurance or hope.
Tricky_Trev
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This is getting more terrifying by the day. We’ll have ten times as many cases in about 9 or 10 days. And we can barely treat people now.They are already struggling for respirators in London hospitals and staff working their days off.
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