Should get back to something resembling normal after a few days.In Asda now. Ques for miles. Trolleys ridiculously full. How long can this be sustained ?
Suppression relates to suppressing viral peak, it is the same as mitigation.Have PHE decided on suppression or mitigation?
This is important because barring a significant mutation this defines where we are going with this.
Definitions:
R: The average number of secondary cases each case generates.
Suppression: Reduce R to below 1.
Mitigation: Reduce R but maintain above 1.
The option to take depends on vaccine production and ant-viral treatments. The latest news in that regards seems encouraging so the correct public health response should be to suppress this virus with every single measure available. We are not doing that. The isolation measures are voluntary. Schools remain open. How can they remain open? That's crazy because although it may not have a visible effect on children it spreads the virus through families and renders measures which parents make during their days almost useless. Keeping schools open whilst socially isolating risk groups would be a hallmark strategy for a mitigation effort.
I understand there are some drawbacks to closing schools such as losing key personnel but the bottom line is 'R'. That has to go down to below 1.
Why aren't we testing people with symptoms? The answer is because we do not have testing resources, and we do not have an incentive to do so because there is no forensic system in place to take that testing data and then follow-up contacts. Yet that is the most important defence strategy that a nation has. This is why is is the central WHO theme and yet none of the Western countries are doing this. Not a single one. That's because their health systems do no have the resources. Isn't that why we elect governments to allocate resources?
Thanks! This too provides good data visualization porn over multiple pages. Gimme all of those curvy graphs.@Uffa https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covi...smission/italy-time-varying-transmission.html
Info on Italy that may be of interest.
The term 'suppression', as used by the UK experts and their modellers, refers to suppressing the virus not the people.I concur with this. Here in Spain they are obviously trying the first option, suppression.
As I understand it in maybe a month the numbers will be exponentially lower due to isolation of the entire population. Those who have had it, will no longer be infectious.
There will of course be some infected still in the community but by following the type of policies that Korea have they can be contained. And isolation will end.
International travel would in my opinion be daft as people coming from countries that have still got the disease could restart it.
Britain's approach seems neither one thing not the other. While people still go into work, go to the pub, schools remain open, infection rates will still be high.
Should get back to something resembling normal after a few days.
If your supply chains are safe, you can have the supermarkets restocked every day.
If people see that the shelves are being repeatedly restocked things will settle down. That message should be repeated over and over on airwaves/media to get it through to people.
The message was being pumped at us day after day over here, reassuring people that out supply chains are safe and we have enough food to feed 40 million people in stock.
As well as the fact that your actions affect others, mainly the most vulnerable....
People stock piling are wasting their money, etc.
A Chinese professor was taking it himself when the Wuhan crisis was raging according to Chinese state media and these reports were carried in the English press.As others have posted in reply to Gray, a vaccine isn't a cure, you can't give it to already sick people. If I recall correctly, the flu vaccine needs more or less 2 weeks since injection to make your immune system resistant to a possible virus attack.
As such, apart from volunteers, who would you test it on? People who are more at risk, aka elders or seriously ill? Testing a completely experimental substance on the most frail of people doesn't look like such a bright idea to me.
That's why the first human trials that have begun in the US are on healthy 45 year-olds.
Good for him? I guess it was a really early prototype.A Chinese professor was taking it himself when the Wuhan crisis was raging according to Chinese state media and these reports were carried in the English press.
Good for him? I guess it was a really early prototype.