Chris in London
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 21 Sep 2009
- Messages
- 12,996
In recent weeks a number of posters have commented that less time is added on if City are not winning after 90 minutes than if they are. Mods, feel free to move but I thought I would create a thread separate to the main refereeing thread so we can test that specific point. I don't want this to be a general discussion of whether that shows bias, conscious or otherwise, I just wanted to see if there is a general trend of the sort some posters have described.
In the games played during the last 3 months the time added on has been as follows (note, this is the time actually played, not the 'minimum' time indicated at 90 minutes - source is a Google search of Manchester City results - see below)
date/team played/ home or away/ score after 90 minutes / time added
12 Nov Chelsea a 3 - 4 ( 11 minutes)
25 Nov Liverpool h 1 - 1 ( 9 minutes)
3 Dec Tottenham h 3 - 2 (8 minutes)
6 Dec Aston Villa a 1 - 0 (6 minutes)
10 Dec Luton a 1 - 2 (7 minutes)
16 Dec Crystal Palace h 2 - 1 (8 minutes)
27 Dec Everton a 1 - 3 (7 minutes)
30 Dec Sheffield U h 2 - 0 (3 minutes)
13 Jan Newcastle a 2 - 2 (4 minutes)
31 Jan Burnley h 3 - 0 (6 minutes)
5 Feb Brentford a 1 - 3 (6 minutes)
10 Feb Everton h 2 - 0 (10 minutes)
17 Feb Chelsea h 1 - 1 (6 minutes)
20 Feb Brentford h 1 - 0 (7 minutes)
24 Feb Bournemouth a 0 - 1 (8 minutes)
I haven't gone back before the middle of November as (a) I don't have time, and (b) I thought 3 months (15 games) was a good enough sample. I will however update this post (if I can find it again) as we go through the season.
The maths is quite simple. On average, in games where we are winning an average of 7.36 minutes is added on. In games where we are losing or drawing (and therefore need a goal) an average of 6.25 minutes has been added on.
You can also refine the analysis in this way. Where we are leading by one goal the average time added on is 8.16 minutes whereas if we are winning by more than one goal it falls to 6.4 minutes.
Does all that indicate bias? Perhaps, perhaps not. But it confirms the perception that (on average) we get less time added on when we need a goal than when we don't, and that when one goal for the opposition would change the result of the game more time still is added on. One way of looking at that is to say 'there's only a minute's difference between the two', another is to say 'when there is only one goal between the teams, the opposition on average get 30% more added time in which to find a goal than City.' Please yourself which approach you take.
Some footnotes:
The above is PL games only. I just haven't checked the cup competitions, which may tell a completely different story.
Obviously it's important to note that the score at 90 minutes changed in the games against Spurs, Newcastle, Burnley and Palace. The goals in the Newcastle, Spurs and Palace matches were all game-changing in terms of the result. Burnley's goal was simply a consolation goal.
I haven't checked back to see whether there were lengthy injuries/multiple substitutes in games where time was added.
I haven't found a reliable source to tell me what time was initially allowed as opposed to what was actually played. Against Palace, for instance, my recollection is that 5 minutes were initially were added but we ended up playing 8 because of the award of the penalty, the VAR check, the goal celebrations and a substitution. Against Chelsea recently the time signalled was 4 minutes but we actually played 6. Against Everton IIRC 10 was signalled and 10 was played.
Two more points - if I had time, I would research how many teams have conceded penalties in injury time when the resulting penalty is potentially outcome-changing. The above sample contains two - Chelsea (a) and Palace (h), both of which we drew when winning. I can't remember an example of us being awarded a penalty in the last minute that would have won us the game if scored in years, though I confess I haven't actually researched it. I do remember Balotelli scoring a last minute pen vs Spurs in the Agueroooo season but I honestly can't think of another since. It would be interesting to see which teams had conceded/been awarded penalties in added time, and what the match situations were in each case.
Equally, if I had time I would do a similar analysis for Liverpool, Arsenal and Rags to see how much time they get when winning/needing a goal. It would be an interesting comparison.
Finally, my source for this information as noted above was a simple google search for City's results using the 'timeline' feature - eg https://www.google.com/search?q=manchester+city+results+2024&sca_esv=85af15397c77c0f6&rlz=1C1GCEU_en-gbGB896GB896&sxsrf=ACQVn09Y6ns1Q736UDyCeWCt63Ds3aXjUA:1709039920953&ei=MOHdZerXOd6A9u8P3Yey2Ak&ved=0ahUKEwjqr5TrzcuEAxVegP0HHd2DDJsQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=manchester+city+results+2024&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHG1hbmNoZXN0ZXIgY2l0eSByZXN1bHRzIDIwMjQyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGA0iWLFDRAVjfInABeAGQAQCYAZ4BoAHFDaoBBDE4LjO4AQPIAQD4AQGYAhGgAr0LwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAg4QABjkAhjWBBiwA9gBAcICExAuGIAEGIoFGEMYyAMYsAPYAQLCAhwQLhiABBiKBRhDGMcBGNEDGNQCGMgDGLAD2AECwgIKECMYgAQYigUYJ8ICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIOEAAYgAQYigUYsQMYgwHCAggQABiABBixA8ICBRAuGIAEwgIIEC4YsQMYgATCAg4QABiABBiKBRiRAhixA8ICCxAAGIAEGIoFGJECwgITEAAYgAQYigUYkQIYsQMYRhj9AcICHxAAGIAEGIoFGJECGLEDGEYY_QEYlwUYjAUY3QTYAQPCAgYQABgWGB6YAwCIBgGQBhO6BgYIARABGAm6BgYIAhABGAi6BgYIAxABGBOSBwQxMy40&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#sie=m;/g/11kq89p71w;2;/m/02_tc;tl;fp;1;;;):
In the games played during the last 3 months the time added on has been as follows (note, this is the time actually played, not the 'minimum' time indicated at 90 minutes - source is a Google search of Manchester City results - see below)
date/team played/ home or away/ score after 90 minutes / time added
12 Nov Chelsea a 3 - 4 ( 11 minutes)
25 Nov Liverpool h 1 - 1 ( 9 minutes)
3 Dec Tottenham h 3 - 2 (8 minutes)
6 Dec Aston Villa a 1 - 0 (6 minutes)
10 Dec Luton a 1 - 2 (7 minutes)
16 Dec Crystal Palace h 2 - 1 (8 minutes)
27 Dec Everton a 1 - 3 (7 minutes)
30 Dec Sheffield U h 2 - 0 (3 minutes)
13 Jan Newcastle a 2 - 2 (4 minutes)
31 Jan Burnley h 3 - 0 (6 minutes)
5 Feb Brentford a 1 - 3 (6 minutes)
10 Feb Everton h 2 - 0 (10 minutes)
17 Feb Chelsea h 1 - 1 (6 minutes)
20 Feb Brentford h 1 - 0 (7 minutes)
24 Feb Bournemouth a 0 - 1 (8 minutes)
I haven't gone back before the middle of November as (a) I don't have time, and (b) I thought 3 months (15 games) was a good enough sample. I will however update this post (if I can find it again) as we go through the season.
The maths is quite simple. On average, in games where we are winning an average of 7.36 minutes is added on. In games where we are losing or drawing (and therefore need a goal) an average of 6.25 minutes has been added on.
You can also refine the analysis in this way. Where we are leading by one goal the average time added on is 8.16 minutes whereas if we are winning by more than one goal it falls to 6.4 minutes.
Does all that indicate bias? Perhaps, perhaps not. But it confirms the perception that (on average) we get less time added on when we need a goal than when we don't, and that when one goal for the opposition would change the result of the game more time still is added on. One way of looking at that is to say 'there's only a minute's difference between the two', another is to say 'when there is only one goal between the teams, the opposition on average get 30% more added time in which to find a goal than City.' Please yourself which approach you take.
Some footnotes:
The above is PL games only. I just haven't checked the cup competitions, which may tell a completely different story.
Obviously it's important to note that the score at 90 minutes changed in the games against Spurs, Newcastle, Burnley and Palace. The goals in the Newcastle, Spurs and Palace matches were all game-changing in terms of the result. Burnley's goal was simply a consolation goal.
I haven't checked back to see whether there were lengthy injuries/multiple substitutes in games where time was added.
I haven't found a reliable source to tell me what time was initially allowed as opposed to what was actually played. Against Palace, for instance, my recollection is that 5 minutes were initially were added but we ended up playing 8 because of the award of the penalty, the VAR check, the goal celebrations and a substitution. Against Chelsea recently the time signalled was 4 minutes but we actually played 6. Against Everton IIRC 10 was signalled and 10 was played.
Two more points - if I had time, I would research how many teams have conceded penalties in injury time when the resulting penalty is potentially outcome-changing. The above sample contains two - Chelsea (a) and Palace (h), both of which we drew when winning. I can't remember an example of us being awarded a penalty in the last minute that would have won us the game if scored in years, though I confess I haven't actually researched it. I do remember Balotelli scoring a last minute pen vs Spurs in the Agueroooo season but I honestly can't think of another since. It would be interesting to see which teams had conceded/been awarded penalties in added time, and what the match situations were in each case.
Equally, if I had time I would do a similar analysis for Liverpool, Arsenal and Rags to see how much time they get when winning/needing a goal. It would be an interesting comparison.
Finally, my source for this information as noted above was a simple google search for City's results using the 'timeline' feature - eg https://www.google.com/search?q=manchester+city+results+2024&sca_esv=85af15397c77c0f6&rlz=1C1GCEU_en-gbGB896GB896&sxsrf=ACQVn09Y6ns1Q736UDyCeWCt63Ds3aXjUA:1709039920953&ei=MOHdZerXOd6A9u8P3Yey2Ak&ved=0ahUKEwjqr5TrzcuEAxVegP0HHd2DDJsQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=manchester+city+results+2024&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHG1hbmNoZXN0ZXIgY2l0eSByZXN1bHRzIDIwMjQyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGA0iWLFDRAVjfInABeAGQAQCYAZ4BoAHFDaoBBDE4LjO4AQPIAQD4AQGYAhGgAr0LwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAg4QABjkAhjWBBiwA9gBAcICExAuGIAEGIoFGEMYyAMYsAPYAQLCAhwQLhiABBiKBRhDGMcBGNEDGNQCGMgDGLAD2AECwgIKECMYgAQYigUYJ8ICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIOEAAYgAQYigUYsQMYgwHCAggQABiABBixA8ICBRAuGIAEwgIIEC4YsQMYgATCAg4QABiABBiKBRiRAhixA8ICCxAAGIAEGIoFGJECwgITEAAYgAQYigUYkQIYsQMYRhj9AcICHxAAGIAEGIoFGJECGLEDGEYY_QEYlwUYjAUY3QTYAQPCAgYQABgWGB6YAwCIBgGQBhO6BgYIARABGAm6BgYIAhABGAi6BgYIAxABGBOSBwQxMy40&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#sie=m;/g/11kq89p71w;2;/m/02_tc;tl;fp;1;;;):
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