Will we win the league this season?

[Cobwebcat]

The perception that the league is weak may be caused by the fact that it is strong...

Why? Because in a strong league even the better teams are inconsistent: they find it hard to win many games in a row and sometimes struggle against relegation fodder.

Villa are winning games in which they create fewer chances than the opposition (Arsenal, City...). It's hard to sustain but weird things can happen in football.

Correct again. The PL (at least compared to the rest of Europe) has never been so powerful, ever. So, unless the standard of football across the whole continent has dropped then the PL is very strong AND competitive.

Villa are scoring Worldies week in week out. Rodger’s two goals together had a 1 in 500 change of going in v United. It’s not sustainable but, like Leicester, strange things do happen.

 

[Cobwebcat]

I think the PL is generally competitive in midtable but some of the traditional top 6 are in some state of weakness. Liverpool, Newcastle, Chelsea, Sours, Man Utd have real weakness. It's not just that the mid-table has got better. City's recovery is helped by a weak top 6.

This is probably something that is arguable and would need more than 2-3 sentences to justify.

The threat posed by Villa is quite interesting. I think they are quite an ordinary side with one match-winner in outstanding form. I'd be surprised if Morgan Rogers can keep this up. Had Leny Yoro done a competent job, Utd would have taken at least a point. But there is always an 'if' around Man Utd, that is why they are 7th.

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[gordondaviesmoustache]

Correct 2023…..By a mile and every independent ranking says the same.

I loved the Centurions but tactics have changed a lot since then….we certainly had a lot less low blocks then.

People dont realise how good the treble winners were. Easily the greatest English team of all time and top 4 anywhere. Some rankings have that City side 1st ever anywhere.

It’s in invariably more complex than that, though. It’s perfectly conceivable that if the most advanced part of Bernardo’s body had been a centimetre the other way, we could have won the lot in 2019. The Quadruple.

That was the apotheosis of a Pep team.

 

[Cobwebcat]

It’s in invariably more complex than that, though. It’s perfectly conceivable that if the most advanced part of Bernardo’s body had been a centimetre the other way, we could have won the lot in 2019. The Quadruple.

That was the apotheosis of a Pep team.

Of course. Luck can and does play a big part. I look at how strong a team is against all competitors domestically and Internationally statistically at a given time.

It’s almost impossible to compare teams across different eras but it is possible to compare dominance margins.

That City 2023 team was objectively unbelievable but everyone will have their own favourites. The Centurions were the most fun for me. 2019 were also outstanding.

 

[Goater101]

Pep has that fire again. Last season he protected everyone. He knew we wasn’t anyway near. He’s pushing them now. Add a forward and get Rodri back then we’ll chase them down

 

[alexmcity]

It’s perfectly conceivable that if

It was possible to win the quadruple in 2019, but whether it was likely is another question.

Give us 80% chance to eliminate Ajax in the semis and 60% chance to beat Liverpool in the final. That's still a 48 % chance to win the lot.

Then factor in that reaching the CL final would have made it slightly less likely that we'd have won the league (due to two extra games, fatigue and possible injuries). So, the overall chance to win the quadruple was at 40% at best while having a much more favourable route to the CL final and the FA Cup final than the Treble winners...One can't compare City-Spurs 4:3 and City-Real 4:0. Different levels.

 

[jrb]

I think wwe will miss out due to the tuff away fixtures in the 2nd half of the season. Even Forest and Sunderland away coming up won’t be easy.

Apart from Arsenal maybe, I can’t see us losing another home game this season.

In no order.

Liverpool.
Everton.
Leeds.
Spurs.(we never win there, or not often)
United.(it’s the derby, anything can happen)
Chelsea.

 

[alexmcity]

I think wwe will miss out due to the tuff away fixtures in the 2nd half of the season. Even Forest and Sunderland away coming up won’t be easy.

Apart from Arsenal maybe, I can’t see us losing another home game this season.

In no order.

Liverpool.
Everton.
Leeds.
Spurs.(we never win there, or not often)
United.(it’s the derby, anything can happen)
Chelsea.

Teams win and lose unexpectedly.

We can win anywhere if the key players are available.

 

[handsofstone]

Injuries could be the determining factor

 

[Marvin.]

Semenyo, if it happens, would tip a finely balanced PL title race City's way.

City are riding a Cherki wave right now but Arsenal have the upper hand in terms of strength in depth. To win trophies you need numbers because of the intensity of games when you go deep in the CL and FA Cup etc. It's one thing playing 3 games every 7 days and coping in the 1st half of the season, and another playing that frequency when one of the games is a CL knock-out game, or a League Cup semi-final (the Geordies will give that tie everything). Inevitably fatigue and injuries play a part. I don't know if City's interest in Semenyo is real, but it should be.

 

[s1ty m]

City 23/24 played at a higher level (Real 4:0) and won more.

The Centurions benefited from the league being seriously unprepared for Pep's tactics (due to the perceived failure of Pep's City in 16/17). They wouldn't win 100 pts in this league because Pep changed football in the country (at all levels) and more teams know how to play against possession based teams.

22/33 was the 4-0 against Real. TR3BLE team. They were so-so. Lol.

What. A. Club.

 

[richards30]

January squad decisions will be vital to if we are close or win it.

 

[Scaring Europe to Death]

Semenyo, if it happens, would tip a finely balanced PL title race City's way.

City are riding a Cherki wave right now but Arsenal have the upper hand in terms of strength in depth. To win trophies you need numbers because of the intensity of games when you go deep in the CL and FA Cup etc. It's one thing playing 3 games every 7 days and coping in the 1st half of the season, and another playing that frequency when one of the games is a CL knock-out game, or a League Cup semi-final (the Geordies will give that tie everything). Inevitably fatigue and injuries play a part. I don't know if City's interest in Semenyo is real, but it should be.

I agree with your overall point as there are so many intangibles, and somewhere along the way either us or Arsenal will be affected by a run of injuries or suspensions, and maybe refereeing injustice or opponents enjoying an unexpected Andros Townsend/Peter Crouch moment and volleying spectacularly from 25 yards

However I still think we lack a commanding dominating presence, especially when the opposition have the ball.

It's not been a major problem in the recent fixtures, but it was at Newcastle and Villa, and it will resurface over the next few months (just look at some of those Tottenham challenges v Liverpool the other night) and if we haven't got a strong ref, then we'll need to rise above it.

The answer is obviously Rodri, but we'll soon be racing into the second half of the season and Pep's responses have been so increasingly glib and unhelpful in recent weeks that I'm beginning to question if there isn't something else going on behind the scenes.

Hopefully I'll be proved wrong and Rodri returns and hits the ground, but whereas Semenyo might be a good signing long term I'd rather we sign some extra physicality

 

[Marvin.]

Rodri has always been key. But slightly less so now that the genie is out of the bottle

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

So, unless the standard of football across the whole continent has dropped then the PL is very strong AND competitive.

The standard across Europe has undoubtedly dropped for me. Too much football, very little tactical innovation (PSG and Kompany doing interesting stuff, at best), no stand out team (PSG were good last year, great even, but outside of them who is close to being as good as they were in the mid to late 2010s?), transfer market has more or less dried up. Euro 24 was pretty poor from a quality or entertainment perspective. As I said up thread, Marcus Rashford is one of Barcelona's best players and Scott McTominay is the best player in Italy.

 

[Xhavenjoe]

We can win the league - it’s in our hands - Match Arse results all the way but best them at home and we are top.(I think we will better Arsenal results tho

Thats true if we want to finish ahead of arsenal but won't guarantee we win the league.
Villa are the joker in the pack.
Getting results that seem above their standard of football.
arsenal and villa appear to have tougher upcoming matches including a game between them. If we can get through Xmas with wins and beat Chelsea on early January we should be top.

 

[Cobwebcat]

The standard across Europe has undoubtedly dropped for me. Too much football, very little tactical innovation (PSG and Kompany doing interesting stuff, at best), no stand out team (PSG were good last year, great even, but outside of them who is close to being as good as they were in the mid to late 2010s?), transfer market has more or less dried up. Euro 24 was pretty poor from a quality or entertainment perspective. As I said up thread, Marcus Rashford is one of Barcelona's best players and Scott McTominay is the best player in Italy.

It’s an interesting point. I’d say other than Barca, RM, PSG and Bayern most of the World’s best players make their way to a team in the PL now. You have Bournemouth able to outbid AC Milan in the transfer market.

Arsenal lead the CL and the PL tables and all the ranking sites. If they aren’t the best team currently I don’t know who is….and yet I totally get that it’s hard to believe their team is anything special other than a well organised defensive unit. You can only beat what is in front of you I guess.

More football being played is something that is said a lot and is generally accepted as true. Interestingly I saw a study about a month ago that suggested the facts didn’t support the accepted truth.

There is a space at the top waiting for an innovative team and I think one will turn up soon. I hope it’s us, we have as good a chance as anyone with Pep in charge.

 

[Cobwebcat]

Thats true if we want to finish ahead of arsenal but won't guarantee we win the league.
Villa are the joker in the pack.
Getting results that seem above their standard of football.
arsenal and villa appear to have tougher upcoming matches including a game between them. If we can get through Xmas with wins and beat Chelsea on early January we should be top.

That’s true and also the reason they should, in theory, start to fade. Let’s see how they get on v Arsenal.

 

[bridgeno1]

Every time Arsenal have been 1st at Xmas they have failed to win the title. Every time City have been 2nd at Xmas they have gone on to win the league.

 

[SWP's back]

Villa beat City. City are 2nd in what this season is not a great league. Look at the state of Liverpool, Newcastle, Man Utd and Spurs. Even Chelsea are hot and cold. Arsenal are strong defensively but they are still struggling for a no.9. City, as Pep has said, can get better.

You say it’s not a great league but it could also be an incredibly strong league. How the teams fair in Europe is usually a decent barometer.