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The only scenario where we could miss out after reaching 69 points would involve us finishing below Villa on GD, which would require Villa to win their next to games by a minimum of 19 goals.

But he's already turned it around. In the first 18 games we took 28 points and in the second 18 games we took 37, with only Liverpool taking more.

I didn't say it was sure fire, otherwise it would have quoted 100%. I gave you a percentage as you asked for and since then you've demonstrated nothing other than a misunderstanding of percentages. Let's leave it here because I'm losing braincells with every interaction.

Take a look at the Guardiola thread if you want true absurdity.

It means there's a 94% chance we qualify for the Champions League. I think you need to look up how percentages work.

That would be a failing of the club from top to bottom. Either that, or we'd appointed Tony Pulis. Which I suppose is the same thing.

Why, would he take the 300m players with him?

The comments in here are typically: Past his best Going like Wenger (!) Lost the plot Leaving in the summer so doesn't care Tactically inflexible His system has been found out There's some fair criticism in here and I think he fucked up with today's selection, but all fair criticism is lost...

You must be new to the thread. I've been coming in here for a few months now and every time we drop points he's lynched, despite us being the second best team in the league since new year. Fuck knows what it was like in November and December when we actually were shite. Some of the stuff...

I have, you're making a weird point that he cant get back to previous levels because they were so high despite him repeating those levels with 3 or 4 different teams over the course of his career, achieving half a dozen extraordinary feats.

How can I already be wrong when we're discussing what might happen in the future?

You're basing your views on one season, I'm basing mine on fifteen. That's fine, but I'm more likely to be right than you are.

You cannot possibly say that he won't be absolutely incredible again next season. You cannot know that. Given his career so far it's actually more likely that he is than isnt.

You asked me if I'd give 100% I quoted a statistical model that says the chance is 94% and that I'd go with that You then said it was irrelevant. So why did you ask?

I haven't said he hasn't been worse this season, I've said he isn't past his best.

Mate You asked me to give you a % I gave you a fucking %

What point are you actually trying to make here? You're talking about random mistakes and I'm pointing out that he can't make that many otherwise he wouldn't win the league 75% of the time. Results are a culmination of everything, including mistakes, and clearly he makes far fewer of them...

Football is a results based game. Your fingers counting mistakes just aren't as tangible.

Irrelevant? Lol.

Opta says there's a 94% chance we finish top 5, so I'll go with that.