2020 US Elections

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An essential quick read on Exit Polls, why they really shouldn’t be used to determine current state or trends of an in-progress election, how the underlying polling methodology has been changed this cycle due to the extraordinary circumstances of this election, and why they will likely be less reliable for postmortem analysis (their intended use) than previous election cycles.

This is especially important to keep in mind as Trump and co will undoubtedly be leveraging what will likely be inaccurate exit polling from many states tomorrow night to claim victory before official tabulations are certified.

fivethirtyeight.com

Exit Polls Can Be Misleading — Especially This Year

Exit polls are usually a core component of election-night reporting — especially before real results come in. They can provide an early sense of which candidate…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
 
Florida will be the first swing state to be called and I'm positive it will be called for Dumb Donald. Pennsylvania is the lynchpin and we have some counties who won't even starting mail in ballots until Wednesday so there's no we we here from them tomorrow.

If by some miracle Biden wins Florida it will be over for the racist tangerine.
 
buckshot said:
Florida will be the first swing state to be called and I'm positive it will be called for Dumb Donald. Pennsylvania is the lynchpin and we have some counties who won't even starting mail in ballots until Wednesday so there's no we we here from them tomorrow.

If by some miracle Biden wins Florida it will be over for the racist tangerine.
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If trump gets both Florida and Pennsylvania I will be getting quite uncomfortable
 
The idiot in the White House's assertion that counting should stop on the day of the election is akin to the pisscan’s claim that "all games should finish at the same time" on 13/5/12.

They both reek of desperation.
 
buckshot said:
Florida will be the first swing state to be called and I'm positive it will be called for Dumb Donald. Pennsylvania is the lynchpin and we have some counties who won't even starting mail in ballots until Wednesday so there's no we we here from them tomorrow.

If by some miracle Biden wins Florida it will be over for the racist tangerine.
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Make sure to refill the fuel in your flame thrower and inspect the flak jackets, mate.

I’ll be boarding up my windows this evening...
 
domalino said:
In Pennsylvania they can't open mail in ballots until 8pm and provisional ballots until after the mail ins have been counted.

538 predict that 6.8m votes will be cast, with Biden having 5pt advantage - roughly 3.6m to Biden and 3.2m to Trump.

If voting follows what happened in the primary, by 3am less than half Biden's votes will have been counted, but up to 70% of Trumps will have.

Which means that if Trump attempts to call the election on the night, he will likely win Pennsylvania 2.24m to 1.8m.

And around 3 million voters will have their vote ruled out.

If all votes are counted, there will likely be a 21 point swing in favour of Biden from 3am on Wednesday morning to when all the votes are counted.

And if anyone wanted to know why the Republicans are trying to set up the world's first "result must be on the night" election, that is why.
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Democracy, my arse.
What a load of bullshit. Not your post Domalino, just the American notion of what constitutes a fair election.

You count the votes, all the votes and then declare the count. In a two horse raise, first past the post, it’s not all that difficult.
If it takes a couple of days, so be it.
We’re a smaller country, but have PR and multi seated constituencies, and quotas to be reached and then second preference transfers, sometimes third preference transfers if things are tight.
But nobody bats an eyelid if we have to wait a couple of days for 1st 2nd or third or more counts.

I used to think Ireland was little more than a third world banana republic decades ago but give me our constitution and our notion of democracy any day.

What’s going on in the US supposedly legally wouldn’t be tolerated in most first world nations.

I don’t mean to be insulting to our American posters, who for the most part are quite critical of these practices and have been very informative and transparent about exposing what is going on.
But America is really exposing itself to the world as a democratic joke.
It’ll be a very bad joke if things go as pear shaped as some of the more pessimistic prognosis being offered regarding Trump and his supporters’ next moves.

I really really hope things go well and everyone stays safe.
 
pudge said:
As an Atlanta Falcons fan can I now claim that we won that Super Bowl?
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You have to wait until the quarterback has released the ball on the last pass of the game but before the receiver has caught it.

Did I analogise correctly? ;-)
 
I will be voting in person tomorrow in Pennsylvania. I'll be wearing a mask, dark sunglasses and Airpods so as not to have to talk to anybody or even make eye contact with any potential patriots who feel the need to start shooting people.
 
Watching that Trump Show documentary series on BBC Iplayer and it is uncomfortable viewing to me. It has been a litany of terrible acts from this **** and he gets away with all of it. Even 6 of his campaign team being put in prison is like water off a ducks back to him. The impeachment stuff when his guilt was nailed on with Ukraine. His bullshit Evangelical Christian alliance. Im certain this prick will get re elected. Its madness there.
 
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