2020 US Elections

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I suspect Trump could now hold Florida.

Early ballots have it at 3.4m Biden and 3.3m cast for Trump.

That's bad news for Biden as the Democratic vote was motivated to go earlier.

Most interestingly, Miami-Dade County has Trump eight points up in the polling - for context - Clinton beat Trump in Miami-Dade by almost double the votes back in 2016.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
Same here, as I have a hunch between Texas, Michigan, Florida and Ohio, Flump will take two/three out of those.
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I suspect the same, I will note though that Ohio is a toss up and Florida is leaning blue now according to 538. However if biden can hold his lead in just one of Pennsylvania and Florida he is going to win I think
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
I suspect the same, I will note though that Ohio is a toss up and Florida is leaning blue now according to 538. However if biden can hold his lead in just one of Pennsylvania and Florida he is going to win I think
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The fact Biden has had to go back to Ohio tells us everything we need to know - it's not the banker they were suggesting it was just a few weeks back.

There are reports Trump is resonating with Florida Hispanic voters, coupled with some truly bizarre Miami-Dade predictions that he's up eight or nine points on Biden in an area Clinton hammered Trump in.

Texas, Florida and Ohio could go either way, which is why I think Trump has more than a puncher's chance, certainly if you listen to that loon Michael Moore who stated this weekend to half Biden's poll number predictions and then also factor in a margin of error of 3%.

If Trump takes Texas and Florida, it is gonna be a long few weeks.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
I suspect Trump could now hold Florida.

Early ballots have it at 3.4m Biden and 3.3m cast for Trump.

That's bad news for Biden as the Democratic vote was motivated to go earlier.

Most interestingly, Miami-Dade County has Trump eight points up in the polling - for context - Clinton beat Trump in Miami-Dade by almost double the votes back in 2016.
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You’re confusing registered electors with votes cast. Trump has managed to piss off a large number of elderly registered Republicans. Not every registered Republican will be voting for Trump by any means.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
The fact Biden has had to go back to Ohio tells us everything we need to know - it's not the banker they were suggesting it was just a few weeks back.

There are reports Trump is resonating with Florida Hispanic voters, coupled with some truly bizarre Miami-Dade predictions that he's up eight or nine points on Biden in an area Clinton hammered Trump in.

Texas, Florida and Ohio could go either way, which is why I think Trump has more than a puncher's chance, certainly if you listen to that loon Michael Moore who stated this weekend to half Biden's poll number predictions and then also factor in a margin of error of 3%.

If Trump takes Texas and Florida, it is gonna be a long few weeks.
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Even if trump takes Texas, Florida and Ohio it will not help him if biden wins Pennsylvania. For trump to win I think he needs all 4 of these states
 
west didsblue said:
You’re confusing registered electors with votes cast. Trump has managed to piss off a large number of elderly registered Republicans. Not every registered Republican will be voting for Trump by any means.
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I'm sure, suppose it depends how many elderly registered Republicans he has pissed off!
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
fivethirtyeight.com

I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win

It’s tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: “On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com

I think it's going to come down to Pennsylvania really
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Trump has always had a 10% to 15% chance of winning, yet no one thinks he will win the popular vote and a narrow EC victory but losing the popular vote by a much bigger margin than last time, how viable is that going to be for the East and West Coast States? It’s rule by the elites, not the people. Same with the Senate where a minority of voters have a good chance of calling the shots.

The House will be Democrat, the Senate may go Democrat and if it does what does a Trump presidency do then?

Then you have Covid chewing through the US, how are they going to deal with that given the sheer incompetence of the Trump Admin on the issue?

Testing times no matter what happens tomorrow.
 
BobKowalski said:
A Trump win, but losing the popular vote by what, 6 or 8 million? Yay, a win for the elites and the wealthy. That will end well.
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There’s no way Biden’s in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota if he’s 9 points up in his internal polling. For context, a Republican hasn’t won Minnesota since 1972.
If Trump wins it will be the hard working men and women of middle America who will be the decisive factor, the people who were abandoned by the coastal elites as their jobs were shipped abroad by successive administrations. Trump has fought to bring their jobs back and they know it. I think they’ll turn out in large numbers tomorrow to keep him.
 
hgblue said:
There’s no way Biden’s in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota if he’s 9 points up in his internal polling. For context, a Republican hasn’t won Minnesota since 1972.
If Trump wins it will be the hard working men and women of middle America who will be the decisive factor, the people who were abandoned by the coastal elites as their jobs were shipped abroad by successive administrations. Trump has fought to bring their jobs back and they know it. I think they’ll turn out in large numbers tomorrow to keep him.
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EH?

 
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