2020 US Elections

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hgblue said:
Trump delivered the highest number of people working in American history, the lowest unemployment in 50 years, the lowest Black and Hispanic unemployment ever.
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Trump continued Obama’s job creation (albeit at a much smaller rate) and has since been the only president in 100 years to lose more jobs than when he started


hgblue said:
Trump is the first president since the 70s not to start or escalate a conflict, has brought troops home from foreign wars, and has achieved numerous peace deals in the Middle East which have been beyond most of his predecessors.
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Yes, he fucked over the Kurds to allow his dictator mates to carve up Syria. Awesome

hgblue said:
Trump has renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with the much more worker friendly USMCA, placed tariffs on China to force them to sign onto a much fairer trading relationship.
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He increased the trade deficit with China to record levels and left the US consumer paying over $20bn in tariffs on Chinese imports. It’s the US consumer that pays those tariffs, not the Chinese

hgblue said:
Trump has secured the southern border and ended the policy of catch and release which has resulted in a reduction in the number of illegal border crossings and a bigger focus on targeting the gangs.
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He’s added 20 miles to the border wall, separated children from parents and completely lost the parents of 545 children and stated it’s unlikely they will ever be found. 5-4-5 children, lives ruined. The border is no safer but racist fucks get to chant about a non existent wall I suppose. If it floats your boat...

hgblue said:
Trump has appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett to the Supreme Court.
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The only accurate point, a rapist that in his written statement on late ballots was factually incorrect last week and had the Sec State of Virginia correct him on Twitter and an extra from the Handsmade Tail who believes a woman’s place is in the home, the State has control of her uterus, takes money from white nationalists AND wants to take health care from 20m

hgblue said:
Trump has cut taxes so that the average American family is 2,000 dollars per year better off, and cut corporate taxes which have encouraged American companies to return home creating extra job opportunities for the American worker.
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Tax cuts for billionaires which has led to the largest deficit (even pre covid) in the history of the world. (You’re talking about jobs again forgetting more are out of work now than when he started)

hgblue said:
Trump has slashed regulations enabling America to become energy independent for the first time in decades and now actually a net energy exporter.
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The US was energy independent under Obama but Trump has slashed regulations on environmental protections, gutted the EPA and pulled the US out of the Paris climate treaty endangering the lives of hundreds of millions around the globe and those unfortunate enough to be born in the coming decades

hgblue said:
Trump has eliminated ISIS and killed terrorists like Al Bagdadi and Solimani, making the world a much safer place.
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Yes, his authoritarian extrajudicial killing of the second most important man from Iran, whilst he visited a third party sovereign state (Iraq) went down a fucking treat didn’t it. Trump didn’t “eliminate” ISIS but he did throw those that did to the Turkish wolves.

I don’t know where you picked up your Fox and Friends talking points but all it did was prove my point. You haven’t the faintest fucking clue but at least you’ve shown enough balls to state why you think you like Trump as opposed to feigning no interest and occasionally post so you and blueinsa can quickly like each other’s posts before running off to talk up Brexit because foreign are bad and shit.
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:


Biden up to 90% win likelihood now according to 538.
Hillary was in the 70s on election night in 2016
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The key things to remember when looking back to Hilary polling was that 1 it did all fall in to the margin of error in the last week and 2 polls are adjusted to factor in how people say they will vote v's how they typically turn out. That is always a backward looking calculation where the young and less educated voters tend to not show. Trump had a massive turnout in un educated voters that the pollsters did not account for. That issue is why it fell to the margin of error.

This time the mechanics will have been adjusted and the pollsters will be assuming that uneducated voters will again turn out. So a surprise there is less likely.

That said the turnout this year appears to be off the charts - so polling will likely to be off again. But generally high turnout will favour Biden and Dem candidates across the board.
 
hgblue said:
Trump delivered the highest number of people working in American history, the lowest unemployment in 50 years, the lowest Black and Hispanic unemployment ever.
Trump is the first president since the 70s not to start or escalate a conflict, has brought troops home from foreign wars, and has achieved numerous peace deals in the Middle East which have been beyond most of his predecessors.
Trump has renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with the much more worker friendly USMCA, placed tariffs on China to force them to sign onto a much fairer trading relationship.
Trump has introduced opportunity zones with billions of dollars of investment going into African American communities, record funding for historically black colleges, signed criminal justice reform into law, correcting some of the injustices created by Biden’s crime bill.
Trump has secured the southern border and ended the policy of catch and release which has resulted in a reduction in the number of illegal border crossings and a bigger focus on targeting the gangs.
Trump has appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett to the Supreme Court.
Trump has cut taxes so that the average American family is 2,000 dollars per year better off, and cut corporate taxes which have encouraged American companies to return home creating extra job opportunities for the American worker.
Trump has slashed regulations enabling America to become energy independent for the first time in decades and now actually a net energy exporter.
Trump has eliminated ISIS and killed terrorists like Al Bagdadi and Solimani, making the world a much safer place.
I could go on but from the perspective of a Conservative he has done an excellent job so far.
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Christ! Is that you Tucker?
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Their site has a lot of detail. The dems also have the house pretty much nailed on and are favoured to win the senate right now
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Cheers, I was aware that the House was virtually a done deal.
The senate will be interesting - Trump without either house could just become a ball of orange rage.
 
hgblue said:
Trump delivered the highest number of people working in American history, the lowest unemployment in 50 years, the lowest Black and Hispanic unemployment ever.
Trump is the first president since the 70s not to start or escalate a conflict, has brought troops home from foreign wars, and has achieved numerous peace deals in the Middle East which have been beyond most of his predecessors.
Trump has renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with the much more worker friendly USMCA, placed tariffs on China to force them to sign onto a much fairer trading relationship.
Trump has introduced opportunity zones with billions of dollars of investment going into African American communities, record funding for historically black colleges, signed criminal justice reform into law, correcting some of the injustices created by Biden’s crime bill.
Trump has secured the southern border and ended the policy of catch and release which has resulted in a reduction in the number of illegal border crossings and a bigger focus on targeting the gangs.
Trump has appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett to the Supreme Court.
Trump has cut taxes so that the average American family is 2,000 dollars per year better off, and cut corporate taxes which have encouraged American companies to return home creating extra job opportunities for the American worker.
Trump has slashed regulations enabling America to become energy independent for the first time in decades and now actually a net energy exporter.
Trump has eliminated ISIS and killed terrorists like Al Bagdadi and Solimani, making the world a much safer place.
I could go on but from the perspective of a Conservative he has done an excellent job so far.
Click to expand...
Can you shag him and get it over with
 
hgblue said:
Trump delivered the highest number of people working in American history, the lowest unemployment in 50 years, the lowest Black and Hispanic unemployment ever.
Trump is the first president since the 70s not to start or escalate a conflict, has brought troops home from foreign wars, and has achieved numerous peace deals in the Middle East which have been beyond most of his predecessors.
Trump has renegotiated NAFTA, replacing it with the much more worker friendly USMCA, placed tariffs on China to force them to sign onto a much fairer trading relationship.
Trump has introduced opportunity zones with billions of dollars of investment going into African American communities, record funding for historically black colleges, signed criminal justice reform into law, correcting some of the injustices created by Biden’s crime bill.
Trump has secured the southern border and ended the policy of catch and release which has resulted in a reduction in the number of illegal border crossings and a bigger focus on targeting the gangs.
Trump has appointed Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett to the Supreme Court.
Trump has cut taxes so that the average American family is 2,000 dollars per year better off, and cut corporate taxes which have encouraged American companies to return home creating extra job opportunities for the American worker.
Trump has slashed regulations enabling America to become energy independent for the first time in decades and now actually a net energy exporter.
Trump has eliminated ISIS and killed terrorists like Al Bagdadi and Solimani, making the world a much safer place.
I could go on but from the perspective of a Conservative he has done an excellent job so far.
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Well done for nailing your colours to the mast.

Trump, No Deal Brexit and Bolsanaro. At least you're consistent in your admiration for autocratic dickheads.
 
aguerrrroooooooooooo said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Their site has a lot of detail. The dems also have the house pretty much nailed on and are favoured to win the senate right now
Click to expand...

If the Dems win the senate that is better than the presidency in many ways.

If Trump wins but the dems hold the house and the senate then the likely outcome is that he gets impeached and then removed. They would still need a 2 thirds majority in a trial but the difference is that they would control the trial. Obstruction of justice no doubt one of the charges.
 
1.618034 said:
P values of <5% are as good as it gets, statistically. That's on the button.

If he still wins then the polling industry should be locked up.
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Speaking as a data scientist/economist, there are all manner of ways to manipulate (or simply bumble) your way to an erroneously low P value (or high confidence data), and it should always be taken with dash of skepticism when it comes to modelling complex human-related systems.

But that is encouraging.

And I think the polling industry should be locked up and forced to consider their choices, regardless of the outcome of this election. ;-)
 
Gaudion M said:
If the Dems win the senate that is better than the presidency in many ways.

If Trump wins but the dems hold the house and the senate then the likely outcome is that he gets impeached and then removed. They would still need a 2 thirds majority in a trial but the difference is that they would control the trial. Obstruction of justice no doubt one of the charges.
Click to expand...
They are tipped at 76% to win the senate so reason to be confident it could happen
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Cheers, I was aware that the House was virtually a done deal.
The senate will be interesting - Trump without either house could just become a ball of orange rage.
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No way Senate turns Blue without Biden winning. The turnout for one creates the other.

With a Blue Senate & House, legislation would get written and passed, but there’s no way the Dems create the 60 vote veto-proof majority, so Trump would just veto EVERYTHING, forcing Dems to BUY Republican votes with watered down legislation!

Impeachment is always an option, but could you imagine the furor? Armed insurrection, especially in open carry states like MI!

The Founding Fathers called it checks and balances, and you’ve seen how those “checks” AND “balances” have worked with an autocratic President and Senate willing to do his bidding...plus the unfettered use of Executive Orders!

We need to just throw the Rep Bums out and move VERY SWIFTLY TO ENACT THE DEM AGENDA. They have 2 years MAX to try to get it done, because “off year elections” (2022) generally go against the party in power.
 
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