Wales winning by 7 or more v England puts England out.
Wales winning by 4 or more ensures they finish above England, and would mean a USA or Iran need to win to knock England out.
If Wales win by 3 or less they finish below England but only go through if USA and Iran draw, but England definitely qualify.
If Wales v England is a draw then England go through, Wales 4th, but Iran win the group if they win, and USA would need to score at least 5 to win the group, and 5-1 would is the lowest USA score that would push it to Fair Play points if Wales v England is 0-0.
Current Fair play points:
England 0
USA -4
England ahead on FPP but one sending off makes it square, and that would mean lots in the unlikely event USA catch up 4 GD and 5GS. So realistically USA need to win by 5 if England draw, to take top spot.