Wrighty Wrexham
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I keep saying it "Lets take one game at a time" with a win against Brum!
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70 points - Will it be enough?
- Thread starter BufordUSABlue
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the goats backside
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After sprouting all my guess work i have to agree Wrighty i just got carried away (-;
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Skashion said:No team has ever needed more than 70 points to finish 4th in a 38 game Premier League season. FACT (actual). It would be typical City though to get 70 and still fail to qualify.
You're wrong 'skashion' .....
you should have read my earlier post on this thread when i said that teams finishing in 4th position over the last five seasons have done it with points ranging between 61-72 .......
and it was Arsenal who finished 2008/2009 (last season) with 72 points.
_________________________
for the record (4th placed finishes) .....
2004-05 Everton 61 points
2005-06 Arsenal 67 points
2006-07 Arsenal 68 points
2007-08 Liverpool 76 points
2008-09 Arsenal 72 points
the goats backside
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I wish we were in season 2004-2005 now
Skashion
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black mamba said:Skashion said:No team has ever needed more than 70 points to finish 4th in a 38 game Premier League season. FACT (actual). It would be typical City though to get 70 and still fail to qualify.
You're wrong 'skashion' .....
you should have read my earlier post on this thread when i said that teams finishing in 4th position over the last five seasons have done it with points ranging between 61-72 .......
and it was Arsenal who finished 2008/2009 (last season) with 72 points.
_________________________
for the record (4th placed finishes) .....
2004-05 Everton 61 points
2005-06 Arsenal 67 points
2006-07 Arsenal 68 points
2007-08 Liverpool 76 points
2008-09 Arsenal 72 points
*facepalm*
I'll leave you to work out how dumb you've been.
Impeccable
Well-Known Member
The last 5 seasons 5th placed teams. No more than 66pts has been needed to finish in 4th spot...
2008/09 Everton 63pts
2007/08 Everton 65pts
2006/07 Spurs 60pts
2005/06 Spurs 65pts
2004/05 Liverpool 58pts
2008/09 Everton 63pts
2007/08 Everton 65pts
2006/07 Spurs 60pts
2005/06 Spurs 65pts
2004/05 Liverpool 58pts
Skashion
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Impeccable said:The last 5 seasons 5th placed teams. No more than 66pts has been needed to finish in 4th spot...
2008/09 Everton 63pts
2007/08 Everton 65pts
2006/07 Spurs 60pts
2005/06 Spurs 65pts
2004/05 Liverpool 58pts
Aha, there it is...
the goats backside
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This is one of those........ in the last 5 years if you wanted to finish 4th 66 points would have been enough, but in reality if a team got 72 you would need 73, confused, i'm not
Chippy_boy
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I agree with other on here that 68 is the target, providing we don't lose to Spurs. If we do, we need 69 because their GD will be better than ours in that scenario.
You have to factor in that Arsenal, Chelsea and Man U are all playing for the title and will be going flat out to take maximum points from every game.
Chelsea WILL beat Liverpool. Therefore Liverpool maximum = 67
Spurs WILL lose at the swamp and won't beat both Arsenal and Chelsea. In fact I won't be remotely surprised if they come out of those three games will zero points. I have them down for 1 point - a draw with Arsenal. I see Spuds finishing on 65, or 68 if they beat us.
Villa have the easiest run in but are too far back. They need 5 wins and a draw to get 68. Not going to happen.
In reality, I actually think we are going to romp home 5 points clear! :-)
City 72 WDLWWW
Dippers 67 WWWLW
Spuds 65 DLLWLW
Villa 65 DWWDLW
You have to factor in that Arsenal, Chelsea and Man U are all playing for the title and will be going flat out to take maximum points from every game.
Chelsea WILL beat Liverpool. Therefore Liverpool maximum = 67
Spurs WILL lose at the swamp and won't beat both Arsenal and Chelsea. In fact I won't be remotely surprised if they come out of those three games will zero points. I have them down for 1 point - a draw with Arsenal. I see Spuds finishing on 65, or 68 if they beat us.
Villa have the easiest run in but are too far back. They need 5 wins and a draw to get 68. Not going to happen.
In reality, I actually think we are going to romp home 5 points clear! :-)
City 72 WDLWWW
Dippers 67 WWWLW
Spuds 65 DLLWLW
Villa 65 DWWDLW
Skashion said:Impeccable said:The last 5 seasons 5th placed teams. No more than 66pts has been needed to finish in 4th spot...
2008/09 Everton 63pts
2007/08 Everton 65pts
2006/07 Spurs 60pts
2005/06 Spurs 65pts
2004/05 Liverpool 58pts
Aha, there it is...
So? this doesn't matter, in 08/09, if you got 64 points,then you overtook Everton and you finished 5th, not 4th... you still have to over-take the team in 4th to finish there.
Just like if your in a race and you ovetake the person in 2nd place, your not 1st, your 2nd. You still need to overtake the person in 1st.
the goats backside
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If villa get 5 wins and a draw they will have 70 point
Impeccable
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Blue Coop said:Skashion said:Aha, there it is...
So? this doesn't matter, in 08/09, if you got 64 points,then you overtook Everton and you finished 5th, not 4th... you still have to over-take the team in 4th to finish there.
Just like if your in a race and you ovetake the person in 2nd place, your not 1st, your 2nd. You still need to overtake the person in 1st.
Yes, point taken. Everton would have needed 73pts to have gained a CL spot. But Arsenal, the 4th placed team, didn't need the 72pts they ended up with to secure 4th spot. They would have done it with 63, taking their goal difference into consideration. This is what I'm trying to get across.
Impeccable said:Blue Coop said:So? this doesn't matter, in 08/09, if you got 64 points,then you overtook Everton and you finished 5th, not 4th... you still have to over-take the team in 4th to finish there.
Just like if your in a race and you ovetake the person in 2nd place, your not 1st, your 2nd. You still need to overtake the person in 1st.
Yes, point taken. Everton would have needed 73pts to have gained a CL spot. But Arsenal, the 4th placed team, didn't need the 72pts they ended up with to secure 4th spot. They would have done it with 63, taking their goal difference into consideration. This is what I'm trying to get across.
Whats the points your trying to make though? that IF the team in 4th finished with 9 less points it would have only taken someone to get 64 points to finish 4th that season? seems a wierd point to show to me.
Chippy_boy
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the goats backside said:If villa get 5 wins and a draw they will have 70 point
If they win all 6, they'll be on 73.
Only they aren't going to are they. Nor will they win 5 and draw 1.
4 wins and 2 draws would be fantastic for them and even that won't get them 4th.<br /><br />-- Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:56 am --<br /><br />
Blue Coop said:Impeccable said:Yes, point taken. Everton would have needed 73pts to have gained a CL spot. But Arsenal, the 4th placed team, didn't need the 72pts they ended up with to secure 4th spot. They would have done it with 63, taking their goal difference into consideration. This is what I'm trying to get across.
Whats the points your trying to make though? that IF the team in 4th finished with 9 less points it would have only taken someone to get 64 points to finish 4th that season? seems a wierd point to show to me.
No, his point is that Arsenal would have still been 4th with only 63 points.
So in effect, they only needed 63.
It's a reasonable point, but there is a minor flaw in that if Arsenal had not got 72, only 63, some of the teams they had played would have more points. That might have included Everton. So in fact maybe Arsenal needed more than 63.
Chippy_boy said:the goats backside said:If villa get 5 wins and a draw they will have 70 point
If they win all 6, they'll be on 73.
Only they aren't going to are they. Nor will they win 5 and draw 1.
4 wins and 2 draws would be fantastic for them and even that won't get them 4th.
72, there on 54 atm, +18 (6 wins) = 72 points.
Impeccable
Well-Known Member
Chippy_boy said:the goats backside said:If villa get 5 wins and a draw they will have 70 point
If they win all 6, they'll be on 73.
Only they aren't going to are they. Nor will they win 5 and draw 1.
4 wins and 2 draws would be fantastic for them and even that won't get them 4th.
-- Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:56 am --
Blue Coop said:Whats the points your trying to make though? that IF the team in 4th finished with 9 less points it would have only taken someone to get 64 points to finish 4th that season? seems a wierd point to show to me.
No, his point is that Arsenal would have still been 4th with only 63 points.
So in effect, they only needed 63.
It's a reasonable point, but there is a minor flaw in that if Arsenal had not got 72, only 63, some of the teams they had played would have more points. That might have included Everton. So in fact maybe Arsenal needed more than 63.
Exactly Chippy-boy. Point taken with regards to other teams directly below Arsenal possibly having more points at the end of the season.
Impeccable said:Chippy_boy said:If they win all 6, they'll be on 73.
Only they aren't going to are they. Nor will they win 5 and draw 1.
4 wins and 2 draws would be fantastic for them and even that won't get them 4th.
-- Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:56 am --
No, his point is that Arsenal would have still been 4th with only 63 points.
So in effect, they only needed 63.
It's a reasonable point, but there is a minor flaw in that if Arsenal had not got 72, only 63, some of the teams they had played would have more points. That might have included Everton. So in fact maybe Arsenal needed more than 63.
Exactly Chippy-boy. Point taken with regards to other teams directly below Arsenal possibly having more points at the end of the season.
I understand it, i just don't see the point in it. Anyway, lets move on.
DontLookBackInAnger
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Predictors are all very good, but they have one drawback they end up overscoring the teams at the top and underscoring the teams at the bottom. For example I have Hull staying up on 30 points! My guess is none of the teams fighting for 4th will break 70.
One game at a time lads. All season we've had discussions of how many points we'd get over the next few games and nobody ever seems to get them right. We'll drop points and so will our rivals. Just got to hope we drop fewer points.