Alexis Sanchez

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cadds92 said:
I can’t see us making an agreement with Sanchez once again and then just letting any deal not happen because Arsenal will let him go for free rather than take £20m now.

It’s up to Sanchez now to do his bit because if this ends up being another non-goer this month Sanchez is going to end up being seriously aggrieved with both clubs and may sack going to City off.
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Sanchez has already done his BIT he only wants to play for one team
 
CityInWashingtonState said:
If Arsenal keep Sanchez and this results in their reaching 4th in the EPL, Arsenal gets:

£32.3m for 4th in the EPL and
€12.7m for reaching C/L qualification (2017/18 figure)

A Euro is now worth slightly more than a pound but say they're equal.
So 4th in the EPL is worth about 32.3+12.7 = £45.0m

Now suppose that Arsenal sell Sanchez this window. And let's say that drops them from 4th to 5th in the EPL. Then, Arsenal get:

£30.4m for 5th in the EPL and
€2.6m for reaching the Europa League (2017/18 figure)

So 5th in the EPL is approximately worth 30.4+2.6 = £33.0

The difference between 4th and 5th in the EPL is approximately 45-33 = £12 (approximate due to £ to € conversion and 2017/18 C/L, E/L qualification figures used).

We've offered £20m for Sanchez - so, prima facie, Arsenal would be better off accepting our offer than keeping Sanchez.

This rough analysis is obviously incomplete in that it doesn't consider the possibilities of Arsenal finishing above 4th or below 5th following the sale/retention of Sanchez and b/c 2017/18 figures were used for C/L and E/L qualification awards.
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TL/DR - It looks like Arsenal gains somewhat by selling Sanchez to us and take the £20m we have on offer.

As-is, it's unlikely that Arsenal will finish 4th or higher no matter what they do in the Winter window and it's virtually certain that they'll lose Sanchez on a free if they keep him until next season.

So... If Arsenal's board/owners are in it for the money (I suspect that they are) I expect that Arsenal will take our offer.

Arsenal have sold to us in the past under - I think? - the same board, so this deal won't probably be scuppered for some sort of hate versus Manchester City or policy of never selling to rivals.

On the other hand, £12 isn't a huge sum. So maybe Arsenal will hold out - hoping that the short term expected loss is offset by gains in future deals where clubs intentionally way-overbid for desired players.
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Think this is a simplistic way of looking at it based purely on tv money. Surely they have sponsors who pay more if they are in the champions league, can charge more for a ticket v Bayern Munich rather than BATE especially on the corporate side of things. And it would also help player recruitment being in the champions league.
 
CityInWashingtonState said:
If Arsenal keep Sanchez and this results in their reaching 4th in the EPL, Arsenal gets:

£32.3m for 4th in the EPL and
€12.7m for reaching C/L qualification (2017/18 figure)
.
A Euro is now worth slightly more than a pound but say they're equal.
So 4th in the EPL is worth about 32.3+12.7 = £45.0m

Now suppose that Arsenal sell Sanchez this window. And let's say that drops them from 4th to 5th in the EPL. Then, Arsenal get:

£30.4m for 5th in the EPL and
€2.6m for reaching the Europa League (2017/18 figure)

So 5th in the EPL is approximately worth 30.4+2.6 = £33.0

The difference between 4th and 5th in the EPL is approximately 45-33 = £12 (approximate due to £ to € conversion and 2017/18 C/L, E/L qualification figures used).

We've offered £20m for Sanchez - so, prima facie, Arsenal would be better off accepting our offer than keeping Sanchez.

This rough analysis is obviously incomplete in that it doesn't consider the possibilities of Arsenal finishing above 4th or below 5th following the sale/retention of Sanchez and b/c 2017/18 figures were used for C/L and E/L qualification awards.
====
TL/DR - It looks like Arsenal gains somewhat by selling Sanchez to us and take the £20m we have on offer.

As-is, it's unlikely that Arsenal will finish 4th or higher no matter what they do in the Winter window and it's virtually certain that they'll lose Sanchez on a free if they keep him until next season.

So... If Arsenal's board/owners are in it for the money (I suspect that they are) I expect that Arsenal will take our offer.

Arsenal have sold to us in the past under - I think? - the same board, so this deal won't probably be scuppered for some sort of hate versus Manchester City or policy of never selling to rivals.

On the other hand, £12 isn't a huge sum. So maybe Arsenal will hold out - hoping that the short term expected loss is offset by gains in future deals where clubs intentionally way-overbid for desired players.
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£1 = €1.13. It's been above €1.10 for months. It was briefly as low as €1.08 in August
 
bobmcfc said:
4th seems a stretch with such an unhappy camp. They are so stale, they need a new fresh manager
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The analysis is very simplistic. I've assumed the probable best outcome for Arsenal if they retain Sanchez - 4th in the EPL - and the probable best outcome if they sell Sanchez - 5th in the EPL.

This keeps the analysis simple.

Worse placings by keeping Sanchez (worse than 4th) versus selling (worse than 5th) simply increase the revenue gained by selling.

Bottom line - it very much seems that Arsenal will be better off financially if they accept our offer. Rejection though is possible if:
1) the owners simply won't sell in this window for whatever reason;
2) the owners haven't done the math to figure out that selling is in their own best interest;
3) the owners are willing to accept a nominal loss by refusing to sell Sanchez in the Winter window, hoping to gain the reputation of tough bargainers, to the benefit of future negotiations;
4) the owners want to make an example of Sanchez to the rest of the team - don't try to force a trade, otherwise we'll just hold you until the end of your contract

Me? - I think 1-4 are unlikely (maybe 3 comes into play) - so I think that this deal probably goes through.
 
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domalino said:
I'm the exact opposite.

In the summer I thought this transfer would fuck over Sterling or Sané and stop them from making the step up they did make this season.

Now though, he's not arriving as an upgrade on Sterling or Sané who can deliver instant results compared to the kids - which is how it would have been if he arrived in the summer - instead he's joining alongside 2 of the best, most productive, wingers in the country and he actually needs to up his form this season to start over them.

I can't wait now, he's going to bring something very different to all 3 positions up front.
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Bang on
 
BlueAnorak said:
£1 = €1.13. It's been above €1.10 for months. It was briefly as low as €1.08 in August
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Who knows where £ versus € ends up - the point of the analysis is to make simplistic but reasonable assumptions and to see where this leads.
 
All this talk about Sanchez staying and Arsenal finishing 4th.......I know the point's been made, bit it needs making again.........HE WAS THERE LAST SEASON!!!!
 
Any update anyone? I can only see conversion rates from £ to €.. I’m guessing it’s been a slow day?
 
johnmc said:
Think this is a simplistic way of looking at it based purely on tv money. Surely they have sponsors who pay more if they are in the champions league, can charge more for a ticket v Bayern Munich rather than BATE especially on the corporate side of things. And it would also help player recruitment being in the champions league.
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Good points - but the analysis is intentionally order-of-magnitude and simplistic.

The point of the simplistic analysis is to determine whether or not Arsenal would very likely be better off selling Sanchez to us or not - based purely on financials.

If you feel that the factors you've mentioned contribute more, financially, than the factors already presented, please provide estimates and rationale. I'll be happy to adjust the simplistic, but order-of-magnitude figures I've already presented.
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The analysis is an order-of-magnitude analysis.

Unless some factor increases/decreases the estimate by an order of magnitude, the factor can probably be dropped (although cumulative minus deltas could change the conclusion).
 
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Hope we sign him, but also hope we don’t give Arsenal close to the fee they want - they fucked us around last summer and shouldn’t be rewarded for it. Rather the money goes to Alexis than them.
 
malg said:
All this talk about Sanchez staying and Arsenal finishing 4th.......I know the point's been made, bit it needs making again.........HE WAS THERE LAST SEASON!!!!
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Yup - which means that my analysis is conservative - Arsenal have even more incentive to sell.
 
Well whoever asked for B Silva/Sterling false 9 the other day on this thread has got their wish tonight I think :D

Pep sending out the "get Sanchez or this is what we are one injury away from"

Also giving Aguero a rest of course :D
 
I'm guessing Sanchez signs by week's end based on my analysis above and past actions by Arsenal's board.

As Pep has worked with Sanchez in the past, I discount rumors that Sanchez will disrupt the dressing room if he's dissatisfied with playing time (playing time might not be as much as Sanchez would like due to strength/depth of our club).

So Pep wants Sanchez - we've made a more than reasonable prima-facie offer - Sanchez is desperate to play for us - and Arsenal have in the past done what's best for them financially, including sale to P/L rivals.

Likely a done deal.
 
bobmcfc said:
He’s ours whenever that may be. Hopefully now but if arsenal are stupid enough to let two world class players leave for nothing then they really are glue sniffing no marks

I’d take ozil too in the summer
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Take it back! Lazy fuck would be awful here.

:-)
 
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