Another new Brexit thread

[Ancient Citizen]

Just listening to the shadow health secretary, Ashworth, it's like listening to George Formby.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

There are seats that have never had a Conservative MP, some with big majorities, but some of these voted to leave.
The thinking at present it that Johnson should stand aside in these, which makes sense, it may not result in BP MP's, or it might,
but at least it's better than both the Tories and BP dividing the vote.

Not sure I like the way the electorate is being played tbh. Either by by the Tories /Farage, or the Gina Miller 'tactical voting' bollocks. Some form of PR would sort this crap out.

 

[hgblue]

There are seats that have never had a Conservative MP, some with big majorities, but some of these voted to leave.
The thinking at present it that Johnson should stand aside in these, which makes sense, it may not result in BP MP's, or it might,
but at least it's better than both the Tories and BP dividing the vote.

I believe the thinking in Leave Labour seats is that some Labour Leavers will vote Tory, those who can’t bring themselves to vote Tory will vote for the Brexit Party, which will be enough in many seats for the Tory to win. In seats that are overwhelmingly Labour, they aren’t going Tory anyway.

 

[Chippy_boy]

There are seats that have never had a Conservative MP, some with big majorities, but some of these voted to leave.
The thinking at present it that Johnson should stand aside in these, which makes sense, it may not result in BP MP's, or it might,
but at least it's better than both the Tories and BP dividing the vote.

I said previously that Johnson has had to tread a very delicate and fine line in order to get a majority to support his WA through parliament. He had to sell it to the ERG as being "hard" enough whilst at the same time painting a picture of a soft Brexit to the left of his party and to potential Labour and Lib Dem supporting MPs. Veer either side and the majority was lost, so he navigated that well.

The same kind of dynamics apply in the GE. Boris needs the votes of Remain-minded Tories and I imagine he is very concerned that an overt pact with BXP would do more damage in lost remain votes than it would gain.

In my view as well, Boris in not pursuing a hard Brexit. There's no way he can get a free trade deal done in the transition period available unless it means close alignment with the EU. Of course he cannot say this or all the BXP and firm Brexit Tory votes will be lost.

 

[hgblue]

I said previously that Johnson has had to tread a very delicate and fine line in order to get a majority to support his WA through parliament. He had to sell it to the ERG as being "hard" enough whilst at the same time painting a picture of a soft Brexit to the left of his party and to potential Labour and Lib Dem supporting MPs. Veer either side and the majority was lost, so he navigated that well.

The same kind of dynamics apply in the GE. Boris needs the votes of Remain-minded Tories and I imagine he is very concerned that an overt pact with BXP would do more damage in lost remain votes than it would gain.

In my view as well, Boris in not pursuing a hard Brexit. There's no way he can get a free trade deal done in the transition period available unless it means close alignment with the EU. Of course he cannot say this or all the BXP and firm Brexit Tory votes will be lost.

Correct, it’s useful for Boris to have the Brexit Party in Labour areas, he’s got this ;)

 

[Chippy_boy]

Correct, it’s useful for Boris to have the Brexit Party in Labour areas, he’s got this ;)

He hasn't got what he wants or needs IMO. He needs to win in Labour marginals and BXP are not helping there, quite the opposite. And the BXP taking the stance they have - even despite any endorsement from Boris - is still having a damaging effecr from a Tories' perspective: It's making some Lib Dem candidates consider stepping aside, and I imagine it will also lose Boris some Remain voters concerned that if the BXP are supporting it, it's not going in a direction they can tolerate.

 

[BobKowalski]

I said previously that Johnson has had to tread a very delicate and fine line in order to get a majority to support his WA through parliament. He had to sell it to the ERG as being "hard" enough whilst at the same time painting a picture of a soft Brexit to the left of his party and to potential Labour and Lib Dem supporting MPs. Veer either side and the majority was lost, so he navigated that well.

The same kind of dynamics apply in the GE. Boris needs the votes of Remain-minded Tories and I imagine he is very concerned that an overt pact with BXP would do more damage in lost remain votes than it would gain.

In my view as well, Boris in not pursuing a hard Brexit. There's no way he can get a free trade deal done in the transition period available unless it means close alignment with the EU. Of course he cannot say this or all the BXP and firm Brexit Tory votes will be lost.

I agree. Johnson is going to have to sell someone down the river and the favourites are the ERG but a small majority will make selling anyone down the river difficult and not being straight with the public is what got us into this mess in the first place. Passing the WA doesn’t get ‘Brexit Done’. The political bandwidth will again be dominated by the uncertainty of more no deal/deal arguments for another year. We can’t get a deal anywhere close to what we have now unless we accept trade offs which no one dare mention and we have glossed over selling out NI by pretending it didn’t happen and that it won’t come back to bite us in the arse.

Deluding ourselves has not in the last three years been a winning strategy for the U.K. so I fail to see how more delusion, irrespective of who is peddling it, is the answer.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I agree. Johnson is going to have to sell someone down the river and the favourites are the ERG but a small majority will make selling anyone down the river difficult and not being straight with the public is what got us into this mess in the first place. Passing the WA doesn’t get ‘Brexit Done’. The political bandwidth will again be dominated by the uncertainty of more no deal/deal arguments for another year. We can’t get a deal anywhere close to what we have now unless we accept trade offs which no one dare mention and we have glossed over selling out NI by pretending it didn’t happen and that it won’t come back to bite us in the arse.

Deluding ourselves has not in the last three years been a winning strategy for the U.K. so I fail to see how more delusion, irrespective of who is peddling it, is the answer.

It'll be very interesting how the votes go in the North.
I'm still very sceptical about the intentions of Boris and the Tory government.
I think it all depends on the result of the election of course, but I really do think the situation in the North will come back and bite Britain on the arse.
It always seems to be a political pawn in the Union.

 

[hgblue]

He hasn't got what he wants or needs IMO. He needs to win in Labour marginals and BXP are not helping there, quite the opposite. And the BXP taking the stance they have - even despite any endorsement from Boris - is still having a damaging effecr from a Tories' perspective: It's making some Lib Dem candidates consider stepping aside, and I imagine it will also lose Boris some Remain voters concerned that if the BXP are supporting it, it's not going in a direction they can tolerate.

Think about the marginals. Boris has recovered the vast majority or Tory Leavers by promising to get Brexit done. Tory Remainers aren’t going to vote for Corbyn. Labour Leavers voting for the Brexit Party reduces the amount of votes Labour will get. I’m really confident.

 

[BobKowalski]

It'll be very interesting how the votes go in the North.
I'm still very sceptical about the intentions of Boris and the Tory government.
I think it all depends on the result of the election of course, but I really do think the situation in the North will come back and bite Britain on the arse.
It always seems to be a political pawn in the Union.

What is striking is that no one here talks about or seemingly understands what exactly we agreed to or the importance of it. Although to be fair that is true of Brexit as a whole. For three years it was ‘Brexit means Brexit’ then the WA landed and all hell broke loose but given there were no viable alternatives we have now accepted the WA, imposed an internal customs border and consented to the economic writ of the EU to operate in NI and are paying £39 billion for the privilege all under the slogan ‘Let’s Get Brexit Done’. Except it doesn’t but we refuse to accept this.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Think about the marginals. Boris has recovered the vast majority or Tory Leavers by promising to get Brexit done. Tory Remainers aren’t going to vote for Corbyn. Labour Leavers voting for the Brexit Party reduces the amount of votes Labour will get. I’m really confident.

It's the marginals I am thinking about. Analysis shows that BXP takes more votes from the Tories than they do from Labour, so it's not that they won't hurt Labour, it's just that they will hurt the Tories more. So BXP standing in Labour marginals is a bad thing for the Tories and a boost for Labour.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

It's the marginals I am thinking about. Analysis shows that BXP takes more votes from the Tories than they do from Labour, so it's not that they won't hurt Labour, it's just that they will hurt the Tories more. So BXP standing in Labour marginals is a bad thing for the Tories and a boost for Labour.

That's quite a widely reported view in the media too. It seems self-evident that more Conservatives would go that way than Labour.

 

[Blue Hefner]

I said previously that Johnson has had to tread a very delicate and fine line in order to get a majority to support his WA through parliament. He had to sell it to the ERG as being "hard" enough whilst at the same time painting a picture of a soft Brexit to the left of his party and to potential Labour and Lib Dem supporting MPs. Veer either side and the majority was lost, so he navigated that well.

The same kind of dynamics apply in the GE. Boris needs the votes of Remain-minded Tories and I imagine he is very concerned that an overt pact with BXP would do more damage in lost remain votes than it would gain.

In my view as well, Boris in not pursuing a hard Brexit. There's no way he can get a free trade deal done in the transition period available unless it means close alignment with the EU. Of course he cannot say this or all the BXP and firm Brexit Tory votes will be lost.

Whilst I tend to agree with that as it is/was the only tactic that was going to work

However, the closer we get to the end of the implementation period isn’t there every chance we will have people shouting that the rooftops that the ‘deal’ isn’t Brexitey enough? Or will they all just be happy to have seemingly put an end to this? There was a Brexit Party MP on the radio the other day saying the current WA will lead to Brexit in name only

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

It's the marginals I am thinking about. Analysis shows that BXP takes more votes from the Tories than they do from Labour, so it's not that they won't hurt Labour, it's just that they will hurt the Tories more. So BXP standing in Labour marginals is a bad thing for the Tories and a boost for Labour.

In 2015 UKIP was strong with Farage as leader - they got a 12.6% vote share - higher than the BP are polling now. The result was that UKIP got 1 seat and tories got 330 - a 5 seat clear majority. But I dont see any evidence to support the idea 12.6% that one time voted UKIP all voted Labour in 2017. This seems to be the groupthink. I would assume the majority voted tory if they voted at all in 2017.

What happened to the tory vote in 2017 is a bit of a mystery as while May was awful it was the first time the tories were up against Corbyn who is a gift to them. If the tories cant beat a full on commie / terrorist sympathiser what are they doing! My assumption is that the popularity of brexit among the tory voters is massively overplayed. How many who voted for Cameron in 2015 went on to vote remain in 2016 and have lost all faith in the conservative party since it went full on hard brexit. Those voters go completely un-mentioned.

 

[Chippy_boy]

In 2015 UKIP was strong with Farage as leader - they got a 12.6% vote share - higher than the BP are polling now. The result was that UKIP got 1 seat and tories got 330 - a 5 seat clear majority. But I dont see any evidence to support the idea 12.6% that one time voted UKIP all voted Labour in 2017. This seems to be the groupthink. I would assume the majority voted tory if they voted at all in 2017.

What happened to the tory vote in 2017 is a bit of a mystery as while May was awful it was the first time the tories were up against Corbyn who is a gift to them. If the tories cant beat a full on commie / terrorist sympathiser what are they doing! My assumption is that the popularity of brexit among the tory voters is massively overplayed. How many who voted for Cameron in 2015 went on to vote remain in 2016 and have lost all faith in the conservative party since it went full on hard brexit. Those voters go completely un-mentioned.

I'd agree with all of that assessment. The UKIP vote went from 12.6 down to 1.8 in 2017 and I can only imagine nearly all of those voters went to the Tories, since May was at the time peddling a "get Brexit done" message. Same reason the BXP is polling as low as it is now.

So your second paragraph makes total sense. A big chunk of Tory supporters are Remainers and Boris is depending on them preferring a Brexit under the Conservatives to Remain if that means Jeremy Corbyn as PM. I am one such voter, BTW. Hence Boris not wanting to do anything to suggest to Remainers that we will have anything like the sort of Brexit Farage wants. That would lose him lots of core conservative votes. To the Lib Dems BTW, not to Labour.

It is indeed an interesting question as to why the Tories are not 20 points clear however, when their opponent is so toxic. The sad and unfortunate fact is there seems to be a gullible section of society, presumably pissed off with Tory austerity for 10 years, who simply have no idea just how bad Corbyn and McDonnell are. Staggering really.

 

[Len Rum]

Hey that was a bit sad wasn't it regarding Elon Musk's decision to locate Tesla's Gigafactory electric car plant in Berlin rather than the UK quoting Brexit uncertainty.
In the coming years most of the electric car production plants are to be located in Germany,France,Spain and Italy, industry analysis shows.
Just the kind of well paid,high skilled jobs we could do with here particularly in the North and Midlands.
Still never mind that's not going to be the UK business model is it?
We will attract investment through low paid,low cost,low regulation, low skill jobs.
It's the only way we will be able to compete when we turn our back on our major trading partner next door to us.

 

[bluemoon32]

Hey that was a bit sad wasn't it regarding Elon Musk's decision to locate Tesla's Gigafactory electric car plant in Berlin rather than the UK quoting Brexit uncertainty.
In the coming years most of the electric car production plants are to be located in Germany,France,Spain and Italy, industry analysis shows.
Just the kind of well paid,high skilled jobs we could do with here particularly in the North and Midlands.
Still never mind that's not going to be the UK business model is it?
We will attract investment through low paid,low cost,low regulation, low skill jobs.
It's the only way we will be able to compete when we turn our back on our major trading partner next door to us.

Yeah but at least we've got back control, whatever the fcuk that means

 

[Gabriel]

Hey that was a bit sad wasn't it regarding Elon Musk's decision to locate Tesla's Gigafactory electric car plant in Berlin rather than the UK quoting Brexit uncertainty.
In the coming years most of the electric car production plants are to be located in Germany,France,Spain and Italy, industry analysis shows.
Just the kind of well paid,high skilled jobs we could do with here particularly in the North and Midlands.
Still never mind that's not going to be the UK business model is it?
We will attract investment through low paid,low cost,low regulation, low skill jobs.
It's the only way we will be able to compete when we turn our back on our major trading partner next door to us.

It's not only the production part that will be in Germany, they're also having the R&D facility there, too.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

He hasn't got what he wants or needs IMO. He needs to win in Labour marginals and BXP are not helping there, quite the opposite. And the BXP taking the stance they have - even despite any endorsement from Boris - is still having a damaging effecr from a Tories' perspective: It's making some Lib Dem candidates consider stepping aside, and I imagine it will also lose Boris some Remain voters concerned that if the BXP are supporting it, it's not going in a direction they can tolerate.

The BXP's support is dropping fast, and you can bet your life those that are switching, aren't going to Labour or the Libs.
You're right in your assessment of the marginals, but there is another factor in play re Farage not contesting 317 Con
seats.The fact that he's tacitly approved voting for Johnson, with this move, must have persuaded many of the BXP to switch,
maybe not the diehards, but even they must realise, that apart from about half a dozen seats, it would be mad to split the Tory vote.

 

[joe123]

The sad and unfortunate fact is there seems to be a gullible section of society, presumably pissed off with Tory austerity for 10 years, who simply have no idea just how bad Corbyn and McDonnell are. Staggering really.

After 9/10 years of austerity it's hardly staggering people would consider an alternative to be honest.