Another new Brexit thread

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mcfc1632 said:
It has been previously said that:

"We will not see movement from the EU until they are faced with the prospect of a viable walk-away (No-Deal) option and the political will to use it"

That was true in 2016 and is true now - May has been utterly incompetent in the management of Negotiations on behalf of the UK, to a level only surpassed by her dereliction of duty to start No-Deal preparations as part of implementation (contingency) planning.
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It looks so obviously bluff from a EU perspective, the more so because:
- Johnsonn has publicly presented it as a bluff
- Uk is not preppared for no-deal
- No deal might make the UK the pariah of international agreements, already the US won't accept the UK breaking the GFA

So far the UK has kept extending the process under the hope that somehow it could push the EU to the table towards a more favourable deal. All this is doing so far is extending the economic uncertainty of Brexit withought apparent change with the EU. As if it was mainly a matter of "superior negotiating skills" rather than the technical consequences of certain red lines.

Perhaps the impression is that upon no deal the EU would itself be forced to put up a border in Ireland blowing up it's relation with the republic. It must be said thhough that there are plenty of other options to punish the UK by other means that would have ecionomic consequences.
 
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kevin horlocks wand said:
No he is not he is acting like a prime minister and trying to respect the result and not show any weakness. Up until now you may as well of been negotiating with a aunt sally in a remain t shirt.

Acting like a **** may mean we get a result and a deal for all sides. Being a fanny has not worked has it?

And I love it how it’s ok for the eu to play hardball , remember withdrawal agreement before a trade deal can be discussed or no talks at all.nope that’s the rules. Should have been told to fuck off at that point,

We are not reopening the backstop even though our own parliament have rejected it three times but it’s ok for the eu to say no that’s it tough. End of. Not reopening it. Nope never.

Eu can play hardball, uk do it we are cunts

We are about 10 weeks away from avoiding no deal and the eu need to start showing a bit more sensitivity and flexibility to the border issue otherwise your worst fears might be realised .

Up until now they have known aunt sally would back down and concede , now they have a different animal to deal with.
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Really well said

IMO - To a good number on here winning a political argument on an internet forum is seemingly more important than seeking the best outcomes for the UK's interests from the position we are currently in. Others, seemingly, are just wallowing in their enjoyment of seeing the UK facing difficulties
 
FlemishDuck said:
It looks so obviously bluff from a EU perspective, the more so because:
- Johnsonn has publicly presented it as a bluff
- Uk is not preppared for no-deal
- No deal might make the UK the pariah of international agreements, already the US won't accept the UK breaking the GFA

So far the UK has kept extending the process under the hope that somehow it could push the EU to the table towards a more favourable deal. All this is doing so far is extending the economic uncertainty of Brexit withought apparent change with the EU. As if it was mainly a matter of "superior negotiating skills" rather than the technical consequences of certain red lines.
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Agreed - did you not read the 2nd half of my post?
 
FlemishDuck said:
Oh, perhaps i misunderstood the gist of it.
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You must have done

The statement was something that I have been saying since July 2016

The key words are 'viable' and 'political will'

The EU have not faced this prospect and May's delinquency has left the UK in a position where No-Deal is not at this point viable and the EU cannot see political will - they will indeed see it as a bluff at the moment

Johnson needs to put major effort into making it viable after May has wasted 3 years
 
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mcfc1632 said:
Really well said

IMO - To a good number on here winning a political argument on an internet forum is seemingly more important than seeking the best outcomes for the UK's interests from the position we are currently in. Others, seemingly, are just wallowing in their enjoyment of seeing the UK facing difficulties
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That could of course apply to either side of this debate.
 
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mcfc1632 said:
Johnson needs to put major effort into making it viable after May has wasted 3 years
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But it will never work imho, it's a pipe-dream. Why would it push the EU to the table???
Besides, the chip thrown on the gambling table that implies a potential rift between Eu and Ireland is offset by the rift a no deal is creating within the Union.

It's populist BS imho, just a lot of tough talk how someone's superior negotiation skills will somehow make the EU bend and take all the UK's demands up the behind. I think the UK needs to stop the culture of "wishfull thinking".
 
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FlemishDuck said:
But it will never work imho, it's a pipe-dream. Why would it push the EU to the table???
Besides, the chip thrown on the gambling table that implies a potential rift between Eu and Ireland is offset by the rift a no deal is creating within the Union.

It's populist BS imho, just a lot of tough talk how someone's superior negotiation skills will somehow make the EU bend and take all the UK's demands up the behind. I think the UK needs to stop the culture of "wishfull thinking".
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Oh something to do with...actually I forget why it will push the EU into throwing a member state under the bus, alienating other small member states and threatening to unravel the Single Market which member states consider far more important than the issue of the UK.

But what do I know. I’m just a lowly collaborator conspiring with the enemy. Or our ‘close friends’ as Johnson likes to call them.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
I know 2.6m Scots voted in the referendum, and 1.6m of them voted remain and just over 1 million voted leave

Yet if you listen to the snp you would think the entire country voted to remain and they all have eu flags in their gardens. Yet because 1.6m Scots voted remain somehow the English are dragging Scotland out of the eu against the will of its people and forcing a second independence referendum and breaking up the union.
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Yep - it should come as no surprise that the English might just be getting a tad fed up with the prevailing narrative
 
Saddleworth2 said:
That could of course apply to either side of this debate.
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Not really - although I can see what you mean and why others would think that is the case

It is a question of adopting a starting point of where we are now and not where we were in May 2016

The pre-referendum world has gone - the horse has bolted - the genie is out of the bottle - and so on......

It is August 2019 and we are facing an exit from the EU - we cannot simply click our heels and wake up in Kansas
 
BobKowalski said:
actually I forget why it will push the EU into throwing a member state under the bus
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What would one consider "throwing one under the bus" to mean anyway, i mean it's not like the EU has to put up a border itself in Ireland, it will be annoying as to trade but there are plenty of ways to punish the UK withought needing to resort to a hard border, if things need to play bitterly hard anyway. Besides, how does the perception of "an threat to the unity of Europe" compare to "the threat to the unity of the UK"?
 
It does seem that many if those MP's who claim to want a 'deal' and to stop no deal are the same folk who have previously stated they wish to remain/thwart brexit, and voted to reject Mays deal. This does suggest a certain lack of transparency to say the least - rather like those who are now members of their third political party in six months and claimed they initially jumped ship because of anti-Semitism.
 
FlemishDuck said:
What would one consider "throwing one under the bus" to mean anyway, i mean it's not like the EU has to put up a border itself in Ireland, it will be annoying as to trade but there are plenty of ways to punish the UK withought needing to resort to a hard border, if things need to play bitterly hard anyway.
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By going against Dublin’s wishes and cutting a deal that favoured the interests of the other E26. It is likely that in a no deal scenario a customs border of some description will be implemented and it’s going to upset either nationalist or Unionist camps or even both. Dublin knows this and we know this and if it happens the Irish will blame the ‘Brits’ and relations between the two countries will be badly impacted.

I know we will look to blame the EU for any and all problems (we have done for decades) but seem to forget that the other 27 countries will blame us for the mess and problems that follow. Personally I have no idea why Brexiteers think getting 27 other countries to hate on us is ‘an excellent negotiating position from which to strike a deal’ but no doubt they will be along shortly to explain it.
 
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