Another new Brexit thread

[blueparrot]

I know there's been a trade deal that mirrors the original EU deal, so that being the case I fail to see the cost and jobs connection, whatever it was/is
continues I'd have thought.
All without guaranteeing free movement, adopting Mexican law, or paying for it, the travel bit I'm at a loss to understand, sorry.

You know do you ?
If it mirrors it exactly great, and what have we given in return for that? Personally I don't know the deal or the cost. Lets wait and see before deciding whether we are better or worse off. Happen to quite like free movement myself.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

To recap:

We have been working on these rollover deals for years. These agreements are good. We had them already. Some cover less than before. In others we need to renegotiate.

The one deal that arguably hasn’t taken years will be the EU deal we are working on, but then it’s a skinny little thing, has nothing on services and lots of issues will carry over into next year and beyond.

More waffling tripe, a trade deal with Mexico was announced the other day, a deal that according to you and yours wouldn't have happened, the govt has only had a majority since the election, they were at minus seats in the house. We have finalised deals for another 57, which I'm sure you'll now say that somehow, a govt. that was outnumbered and on its arse managed to conclude on the quiet, and that same govt. decided to say Jack shit about any of them.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

You know do you ?
If it mirrors it exactly great, and what have we given in return for that? Personally I don't know the deal or the cost. Lets wait and see before deciding whether we are better or worse off. Happen to quite like free movement myself.

Apologies, I don't actually know if it mirrors or not, as yet, but everything I've seen appears to point to that. If, after seeing the detail, it doesn't, and there are hidden man traps, or costs, then we can discuss that, personally I wouldn't think that would be the case.

 

[BobKowalski]

More waffling tripe, a trade deal with Mexico was announced the other day, a deal that according to you and yours wouldn't have happened, the govt has only had a majority since the election, they were at minus seats in the house. We have finalised deals for another 57, which I'm sure you'll now say that somehow, a govt. that was outnumbered and on its arse managed to conclude on the quiet, and that same govt. decided to say Jack shit about any of them.

Don’t be silly. Work on the deals is done by officials not ministers or MP’s. The work was started under Liam Fox. A BBC article from March 2018 talking about the rollover deals.

‘We've got 14 working groups in place with 21 countries at the present time...’

Brexit: UK hopes to roll over 40 EU trade deals, says Liam Fox

Liam Fox says he hopes to have the arrangements with 70 countries in place by the end of 2020.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[west didsblue]

Let us know how much we're paying for it.

About £2 trillion in total over the next 15 years if the deal is as expected and we stick with it.

This is based on our economy being 6.7% smaller than it would have been using an estimate from the government's long term economic analysis of various scenarios. I have used the figure based on an FTA being in place where we have additional controls on migration compared to now. It also assumes our net contribution to the EU would have gone up by 3% per year.

Of course in reality things are likely to change long before then when the government changes its policy due to the failure of this one, and renegotiates its relationship with the EU to something more sensible and less damaging.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

About £2 trillion in total over the next 15 years if the deal is as expected and we stick with it.

This is based on our economy being 6.7% smaller than it would have been using an estimate from the government's long term economic analysis of various scenarios. I have used the figure based on an FTA being in place where we have additional controls on migration compared to now. It also assumes our net contribution to the EU would have gone up by 3% per year.

Of course in reality things are likely to change long before then when the government changes its policy due to the failure of this one, and renegotiates its relationship with the EU to something more sensible and less damaging.

If and when the economy has shrunk because of Brexit, that has actually happened, this argument may hold water.

 

[west didsblue]

If and when the economy has shrunk because of Brexit, that has actually happened, this argument may hold water.

I didn't say that the economy would shrink. I said it would grow at a slower rate. It's not just me saying it - it's the government and all credible analysts.

You can of course live in hope that they're all wrong.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Don’t be silly. Work on the deals is done by officials not ministers or MP’s. The work was started under Liam Fox. A BBC article from March 2018 talking about the rollover deals.

‘We've got 14 working groups in place with 21 countries at the present time...’

Brexit: UK hopes to roll over 40 EU trade deals, says Liam Fox

Liam Fox says he hopes to have the arrangements with 70 countries in place by the end of 2020.

www.bbc.co.uk

2018, and all these rollover deals were dismissed as impossible to achieve, as we're too small, feeble and inconsequential to be able to negotiate comparable deals. That was claptrap then and remains so. More and more will be struck, something you've always said would never happen, well it has, and will.

 

[smudgedj]

Do as you’re told Ursula.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I know there's been a trade deal that mirrors the original EU deal, so that being the case I fail to see the cost and jobs connection, whatever it was/is
continues I'd have thought.
All without guaranteeing free movement, adopting Mexican law, or paying for it, the travel bit I'm at a loss to understand, sorry.

Whether there has of has not been a deal agreed you glibly overlook the facts that are it will not include frictionless trade, there will be border checks and paperwork costing British firms £billions every year that they didn't used to have to do and of course we can't just up sticks and go and live and work in any of the other EU countries on a whim for whatever time period suits. Just to put a ribbon on that point if you own property in the EU your ability to visit property you actually own will be restricted.

I await your reply involving sovereignty and fishing.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

I didn't say that the economy would shrink. I said it would grow at a slower rate. It's not just me saying it - it's the government and all credible analysts.

You can of course live in hope that they're all wrong.

I'll live in the sure and certain knowledge of nothing yet forecast as dire and terrible has turned out to be anything of the sort.
We've listened to predictions like no trade deals for donkey's years, if at all,
massive tax hikes, and other horrors we've discussed to death, all have proved to be nonsense.
You can hope some come true, if you like.

 

[BobKowalski]

You know do you ?
If it mirrors it exactly great, and what have we given in return for that? Personally I don't know the deal or the cost. Lets wait and see before deciding whether we are better or worse off. Happen to quite like free movement myself.

It doesn‘t. You cannot replicate the advantages of a Single Market in an FTA. The main purpose of the deal we are currently trying to negotiate is to ensure goods remain tariff free and transport, haulage, aviation, keeps moving.

There will be non tariff barriers, administrative, regulatory etc which will impact trade. In effect make doing business more difficult and in some cases no longer cost effective.

We are already seeing some issues with Hornby and Jigsaw suspending international deliveries and goods ordered in the UK from the EU that will be shipped after 1st Jan getting hit by higher delivery charges to account for the ‘greater administrative cost’ in servicing UK customers. Firms will also look to make money out if it. ‘Admin fees’ are often a good way to pad the profit margin.

It is the consumer that usually picks up the tab when countries start putting up trade barriers, and there will be barriers, deal or no deal, on 1st Jan. The only thing we are really negotiating with the EU is high do we want those trade barriers to be.

 

[west didsblue]

2018, and all these rollover deals were dismissed as impossible to achieve, as we're too small, feeble and inconsequential to be able to negotiate comparable deals. That was claptrap then and remains so. More and more will be struck, something you've always said would never happen, well it has, and will.

Worth putting into context is that these trade deals will cover around 12% of our total trade based on 2019 figures, compared to 62% now. If we secure the EU FTA that would push it up to around 57%, but it would be 57% of a smaller overall number due to the additional barriers imposed on trade with the EU and the negative effect of some of the new deals (e.g. Japan) when compared to the previous ones via the EU.

 

[Northernstorirs]

I see Macron has caught Covid, he might want to avoid his elderly wife.

 

[west didsblue]

I'll live in the sure and certain knowledge of nothing yet forecast as dire and terrible has turned out to be anything of the sort.
We've listened to predictions like no trade deals for donkey's years, if at all,
massive tax hikes, and other horrors we've discussed to death, all have proved to be nonsense.
You can hope some come true, if you like.

And you can continue to ignore the real impact of our departure by writing off every negative effect as nothing to do with Brexit.
Have fun.

 

[BobKowalski]

2018, and all these rollover deals were dismissed as impossible to achieve, as we're too small, feeble and inconsequential to be able to negotiate comparable deals. That was claptrap then and remains so. More and more will be struck, something you've always said would never happen, well it has, and will.

So we’ve established that these rollover deals now being announced have been years in the making and not just ‘miraculously appeared’ over the last few months.

Progress.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Whether there has of has not been a deal agreed you glibly overlook the facts that are it will not include frictionless trade, there will be border checks and paperwork costing British firms £billions every year that they didn't used to have to do and of course we can't just up sticks and go and live and work in any of the other EU countries on a whim for whatever time period suits. Just to put a ribbon on that point if you own property in the EU your ability to visit property you actually own will be restricted.

I await your reply involving sovereignty and fishing.

I'll glibly overlook your first sentence if you don't mind, as you've not been right yet.
If we've mirrored the EU/Mexico deal, which looks to be the case, whatever checks made are what were made before, obviously. You are actually saying that nobody will be able to live and work in the EU, tell me why nobody can, and why not. Whilst being in the EU, if I wanted to reside in Spain, I needed
to apply for residency, by proving a certain regular income, and taking out health insurance. You talk of visiting property, which restricts to 90 days,
reciprocal arrangements will almost certainly extend this back to 180, but
if visas are required, unless you're a bad 'un this poses no problems.
No country which has large investors in its properties, and the subsequent enormous boost to its economy by these owners, is going to make it difficult for them.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

And you can continue to ignore the real impact of our departure by writing off every negative effect as nothing to do with Brexit.
Have fun.

Thanks, I will.

 

[BobKowalski]

I'll glibly overlook your first sentence if you don't mind, as you've not been right yet.
If we've mirrored the EU/Mexico deal, which looks to be the case, whatever checks made are what were made before, obviously. You are actually saying that nobody will be able to live and work in the EU, tell me why nobody can, and why not. Whilst being in the EU, if I wanted to reside in Spain, I needed
to apply for residency, by proving a certain regular income, and taking out health insurance. You talk of visiting property, which restricts to 90 days,
reciprocal arrangements will almost certainly extend this back to 180, but
if visas are required, unless you're a bad 'un this poses no problems.
No country which has large investors in its properties, and the subsequent enormous boost to its economy by these owners, is going to make it difficult for them.

An FTA will not mirror the benefits of the Single Market, nor will it provide the same seamless access.

The Govt is building giant lorry parks, we need thousands of extra customs agents, ports are petitioning for funding to build new infrastructure to cope with the extra workload in servicing business between the UK and Europe.

They are not doing all this in the expectation that business will carry on as before. Trade will be more difficult, require more work and incur greater administrative costs.

In face of actual physical evidence of what the Govt is doing, or the work being done with the new NI protocols that apply to trade between GB and NI you cannot keep pretending that trade with Europe will face no change or even that trade within our own sovereign territory will be unaffected.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

So we’ve established that these rollover deals now being announced have been years in the making and not just ‘miraculously appeared’ over the last few months.

Progress.

The article you quoted stated that we were 'Hoping' to rollover around 40 deals, so nothing before that then. Then we've had a minus seat government and an election, and within less than THREE years have secured over 50.
Many more will be close.
So not years and years, decades, or if at all, in fact, pretty damn good.
No so good if your wishing for failure, but hey-ho.