Another new Brexit thread

[bluejon]

Leavers and Remainers are probably homogeneous groups in as many respects as not but it seems coprophiliacs are more heavily represented in their surrogates on here.

Put the thesaurus down George. It doesn't make you look as clever as you think it does.

 

[George Hannah]

Put the thesaurus down George. It doesn't make you look as clever as you think it does.

What's a thesaurus?

 

[bluejon]

What's a thesaurus?

Large dinosaur, used to live in Holland.

 

[lancs blue]

I'm absolutely baffled as to how people rage against Tory austerity measures and yet wave away handing over £150m a week to the EU.

ffs £150m per week!!

Because of the economic benefits of EU membership - the boost that our GDP receives from being in the world's largest free trade bloc. Benefits that will either decline or disappear completely depending on whether we leave with a deal or without one.

 

[George Hannah]

Large dinosaur, used to live in Holland.

Never touched it honest

 

[BobKowalski]

Yeah, I don't disagree although Juncker's comments yesterday seemed to indicate a deal can be done.

Given this has been going on for the last 3 and a bit years and we're still not out, I sometimes wonder if the government might've been better off just not acting on the result on June 24th 2016 and citing that it was just advisory. Sure, there would've been uproar at first - and I'd have been one of those who would've been up in arms - but most of us would be over it by now. That said, there could've been longer lasting ramifications of that such as people's faith in politics being destroyed still further.

All Juncker said was if we can come up with something else in legal form that does the same job as the backstop then we are good to go with a deal. This is literally in the Withdrawal Agreement. We came up with the backstop as a concept in December 2017. Nearly two years later we are still no closer to replacing it and the Brexit Sec said we would need another year to do so and even that is being optimistic. We are not getting anything other the deal that is already on the table or at best some version of it that we can swallow. And none of this is getting through Parliament anyway. How are we going to get the Withdrawal Implementation Act through this Parliament by 31st October?

There are lots of warm words at the moment especially from the EU because they can see a route to the deal already on the table because how else can Johnson keep his ‘do or die’ pledge and avoid being forced to ask for an extension other than by a deal that has already being thrashed out? But in substance we are not even close to resolving the issues of the deal namely the backstop. If anything it’s harder to get agreement now because we have signalled we want to diverge from EU standards meaning any future FTA is going to have much higher trade barriers and makes the idea of the EU accepting anything other than full legal guarantees on the land border between the U.K. and EU non existent.

And that’s our other problem. May wanted closer regulatory alignment. Johnson wants less regulatory alignment. And that’s from the same political party. What if it’s a Labour minority Govt in coalition with the SNP in three months time and they want something different? A future trade deal will take years. Throw in change of Govt every few years and you can double or treble the usual 5 to 7 year timeframe for these things.

And yeah we should have thought this through before embarking on something with no clue or idea on where we were going or how to handle the process of getting there. If we had any sense we would call a halt right now for a rethink but we are too frightened to do that so we won’t. We are where we are and it’s a mess entirely of our own making.

 

[M18CTID]

Well I suspect there's very little that goes through your mind that you aren't able to 'prove' so this is no exception. What you do prove however is something many of us have been saying for a long time, and you have denied, and that is that leave is not one single bloc of people. You want to leave, you would rather vote remain than May's deal. I know people who desperately want to leave but would vote remain over no deal. This shite about 'the will of the 52%' is just that, shite.

Works both ways that one insofar as there are some Remainers out there who have pigeon-holed all Leavers into one single bloc of people and that they're all thick racist cunts

You can scoff at the "will of the 52%" all you like, but the ballot paper had only 2 choices on it and 52% of those who voted ticked the Leave box. So yes, it does make them a single bloc of people in that sense but obviously that doesn't mean they all share exactly the same view as to how we should go about it.

 

[FlemishDuck]

I don't think £150m was opinion actually. Peston challenged the Boris claim that it was £390m per week (or whatever) and the 'experts' finally agreed that the true figure after rebates was £150m. £150m per week!! Just let that settle in and then consider what we could do with that.

Yes how much can you do with that?

I think ordinary people often have it hard to get a good "proportional impression" in regards to goverment finances. Sometimes a few million is made to appear like a lot of money, and sometimes a few billion is thrown around like it's spare cash. I must admit i have my scrutiny on the very first point that Brexiteers put out a figure that was on a weekly basis as imho "it's made to sound more like it really is" rather than the norm to put it on a yearly basis.

So some figures:
UK GDP 2828 billion dollar*
Uk goverment revenue 810 billion pounds*

*2018 figures

SO, if we take a figure of 150 milion pounds and multiply it by 50 we arrive at a figure of roughly 7.5 billion pounds. Thats about 0.2% of GDP and almost 1% of the goverment budget. Meaning that if Britain as a result of Brexit looses out on something between 0.2 and 1% of growth over say the next decade outside as a modification of it's normal growth rate, aka if the British economy slows down "a bit" (like 0.2% less growth per year) that figure might turn into a loss soon? To be fair on the economy the size of Britain that 150m/week figure is rather marginal in size, it's like saying "we will get some spare cash back".

But yeah, hundreds of millions per week sounds more impressive than 0.2% of youre gdp. Because if its per week you have to cash in 50 times or something so...

 

[M18CTID]

All Juncker said was if we can come up with something else in legal form that does the same job as the backstop then we are good to go with a deal. This is literally in the Withdrawal Agreement. We came up with the backstop as a concept in December 2017. Nearly two years later we are still no closer to replacing it and the Brexit Sec said we would need another year to do so and even that is being optimistic. We are not getting anything other the deal that is already on the table or at best some version of it that we can swallow. And none of this is getting through Parliament anyway. How are we going to get the Withdrawal Implementation Act through this Parliament by 31st October?

There are lots of warm words at the moment especially from the EU because they can see a route to the deal already on the table because how else can Johnson keep his ‘do or die’ pledge and avoid being forced to ask for an extension other than by a deal that has already being thrashed out? But in substance we are not even close to resolving the issues of the deal namely the backstop. If anything it’s harder to get agreement now because we have signalled we want to diverge from EU standards meaning any future FTA is going to have much higher trade barriers and makes the idea of the EU accepting anything other than full legal guarantees on the land border between the U.K. and EU non existent.

And that’s our other problem. May wanted closer regulatory alignment. Johnson wants less regulatory alignment. And that’s from the same political party. What if it’s a Labour minority Govt in coalition with the SNP in three months time and they want something different? A future trade deal will take years. Throw in change of Govt every few years and you can double or treble the usual 5 to 7 year timeframe for these things.

And yeah we should have thought this through before embarking on something with no clue or idea on where we were going or how to handle the process of getting there. If we had any sense we would call a halt right now for a rethink but we are too frightened to do that so we won’t. We are where we are and it’s a mess entirely of our own making.

Again, I don't disagree with most of that. I just feel that the noises from the EU seem that bit more positive. As you say, the biggest issue to getting a deal through is a resolution to the backstop and getting it all done before 31st October. I can't see how it can be done and dusted that soon either.

I think revoking A50 now and just staying in as suggested by Swinson will cause major unrest. But if "calling a halt" meant revoking now with a view to take stock, assess, and activate A50 at a later date when we're better prepared then I could live with that.

 

[George Hannah]

All Juncker said was if we can come up with something else in legal form that does the same job as the backstop then we are good to go with a deal. This is literally in the Withdrawal Agreement. We came up with the backstop as a concept in December 2017. Nearly two years later we are still no closer to replacing it and the Brexit Sec said we would need another year to do so and even that is being optimistic. We are not getting anything other the deal that is already on the table or at best some version of it that we can swallow. And none of this is getting through Parliament anyway. How are we going to get the Withdrawal Implementation Act through this Parliament by 31st October?

There are lots of warm words at the moment especially from the EU because they can see a route to the deal already on the table because how else can Johnson keep his ‘do or die’ pledge and avoid being forced to ask for an extension other than by a deal that has already being thrashed out? But in substance we are not even close to resolving the issues of the deal namely the backstop. If anything it’s harder to get agreement now because we have signalled we want to diverge from EU standards meaning any future FTA is going to have much higher trade barriers and makes the idea of the EU accepting anything other than full legal guarantees on the land border between the U.K. and EU non existent.

And that’s our other problem. May wanted closer regulatory alignment. Johnson wants less regulatory alignment. And that’s from the same political party. What if it’s a Labour minority Govt in coalition with the SNP in three months time and they want something different? A future trade deal will take years. Throw in change of Govt every few years and you can double or treble the usual 5 to 7 year timeframe for these things.

And yeah we should have thought this through before embarking on something with no clue or idea on where we were going or how to handle the process of getting there. If we had any sense we would call a halt right now for a rethink but we are too frightened to do that so we won’t. We are where we are and it’s a mess entirely of our own making.

A very important point, well said. Putting the joint undertakings by UK and Ireland to honour the GFA border arrangements into the legal language and provisions of the Withdrawal Treaty protocol has indeed produced the principal and unnecessary obstacle to a resolution. The AGs opinion consequent on that translation provided a convenient peg for the ERG etc to hang their extreme freemarket position on.

 

[flyer]

Yes how much can you do with that?

I think ordinary people often have it hard to get a good "proportional impression" in regards to goverment finances. Sometimes a few million is made to appear like a lot of money, and sometimes a few billion is thrown around like it's spare cash. I must admit i have my scrutiny on the very first point that Brexiteers put out a figure that was on a weekly basis as imho "it's made to sound more like it really is" rather than the norm to put it on a yearly basis.

So some figures:
UK GDP 2828 billion dollar*
Uk goverment revenue 810 billion pounds*

*2018 figures

SO, if we take a figure of 150 milion pounds and multiply it by 50 we arrive at a figure of roughly 7.5 billion pounds. Thats about 0.2% of GDP and almost 1% of the goverment budget. Meaning that if Britain as a result of Brexit looses out on something between 0.2 and 1% of growth over say the next decade outside as a modification of it's normal growth rate, aka if the British economy slows down "a bit" that figure might turn into a loss soon? To be fair on the economy the size of Britain that 150m/week figure is rather marginal in size, it's like saying "we will get some spare cash back".

Fair points mate and well made. But if your local nursery is closing or some hospice around the corner is struggling, couldn't our overall 'national health' be raised by someone finding new £150m per week down the sofa.

Britain will still buy BMW's, Audi's and Mercedes. The EU will still buy Transit vans, Jaguars Aston Martins or whatever. There's too much money to be lost on both sides to think we'll just accept a change in circumstance.

 

[FlemishDuck]

Fair points mate and well made. But if your local nursery is closing or some hospice around the corner is struggling, couldn't our overall 'national health' be raised by someone finding new £150m per week down the sofa.

810 billion pounds goverment budget is quite the salloon tbh. It doesn't look like you really lack the money to fund the NHS propperly, more the will?

 

[west didsblue]

True, could be 80%, could be 63.76%, could be 43.777685%

Could be

Yep.
Best we ignore the warnings from CBI, BoE, SMMT and the many businesses that trade with or are fully integrated into the EU economy. What do they know?
We absolutely know we can save £150m per week by putting at risk upwards of £3000m per week. Why wouldn't we do that?

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Fair points mate and well made. But if your local nursery is closing or some hospice around the corner is struggling, couldn't our overall 'national health' be raised by someone finding new £150m per week down the sofa.

Britain will still buy BMW's, Audi's and Mercedes. The EU will still buy Transit vans, Jaguars Aston Martins or whatever. There's too much money to be lost on both sides to think we'll just accept a change in circumstance.

Which is the whole point of establishing a deal rather than crashing out with a no deal.
Oversimplifying it and saying things will just carry on as normal no matter the outcome isn't correct I'm afraid

 

[bluejon]

Works both ways that one insofar as there are some Remainers out there who have pigeon-holed all Leavers into one single bloc of people and that they're all thick racist cunts

You can scoff at the "will of the 52%" all you like, but the ballot paper had only 2 choices on it and 52% of those who voted ticked the Leave box. So yes, it does make them a single bloc of people in that sense but obviously that doesn't mean they all share exactly the same view as to how we should go about it.

I agree with you about the pigeon holing of leavers by remainers, and it does my tits in. I did know some racists who voted leave (and in many ways brexit has done me a favour because their actions and words about brexit showed me they are racist so I've been able to get shut of them out of my life) but they are in a minority in terms of the people I know who voted leave.

As for the ballot, this is my biggest issue with that prick cameron. The options that were on that ballot meant that a large swathe of people with differing views voted leave and then all expected parliament to carry those wishes out, some of which were completely orthogonal to each other. Cameron and his arrogance is the reason for this shit. I can't be doing with Corbyn, but I do agree with his current stance. Agree a deal with the EU so what people are voting for is clarified and then enact the result of that vote.

 

[west didsblue]

Fair points mate and well made. But if your local nursery is closing or some hospice around the corner is struggling, couldn't our overall 'national health' be raised by someone finding new £150m per week down the sofa.

Britain will still buy BMW's, Audi's and Mercedes. The EU will still buy Transit vans, Jaguars Aston Martins or whatever. There's too much money to be lost on both sides to think we'll just accept a change in circumstance.

Transit vans are made in Turkey and Jaguar have announced a new production facility in Slovakia which presumably will supply the EU market if there are additional manufacturing and/or export costs related to UK production. Aston Martin is probably safe though unless the slump in sales and profits continues.

 

[George Hannah]

Fair points mate and well made. But if your local nursery is closing or some hospice around the corner is struggling, couldn't our overall 'national health' be raised by someone finding new £150m per week down the sofa.

Britain will still buy BMW's, Audi's and Mercedes. The EU will still buy Transit vans, Jaguars Aston Martins or whatever. There's too much money to be lost on both sides to think we'll just accept a change in circumstance.

UK manufacturing output is but a drop in the ice buckets of our financial empire benefactors in London.

 

[M18CTID]

I agree with you about the pigeon holing of leavers by remainers, and it does my tits in. I did know some racists who voted leave (and in many ways brexit has done me a favour because their actions and words about brexit showed me they are racist so I've been able to get shut of them out of my life) but they are in a minority in terms of the people I know who voted leave.

As for the ballot, this is my biggest issue with that prick cameron. The options that were on that ballot meant that a large swathe of people with differing views voted leave and then all expected parliament to carry those wishes out, some of which were completely orthogonal to each other. Cameron and his arrogance is the reason for this shit. I can't be doing with Corbyn, but I do agree with his current stance. Agree a deal with the EU so what people are voting for is clarified and then enact the result of that vote.

Well that's a much better post and I agree wholeheartedly about Cameron

 

[BobKowalski]

Again, I don't disagree with most of that. I just feel that the noises from the EU seem that bit more positive. As you say, the biggest issue to getting a deal through is a resolution to the backstop and getting it all done before 31st October. I can't see how it can be done and dusted that soon either.

I think revoking A50 now and just staying in as suggested by Swinson will cause major unrest. But if "calling a halt" meant revoking now with a view to take stock, assess, and activate A50 at a later date when we're better prepared then I could live with that.

Revoking now to reassess is the only option that makes any strategic sense. Our desperation to do a ‘deal’ and leave by an artificial date that is controlled by the other side is lunacy. Every single phase since we triggered A50 has been set and decided by the EU. And what do we do? Battle on regardless. It may be plucky, it might even be glorious but it’s not how you negotiate.

 

[Rascal]

I hate people that use long words to try and appear clever.

That's just Floccinaucinihilipilification