Another new Brexit thread

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BobKowalski said:
As a European nation how do we sever all ties with Europe? Do we pretend they don’t exist? Reissue all text books with Europe blanked out and replaced with the words ‘here be dragons’?

I remember the days when leaving the EU was going to be easy with sunlit uplands and unicorns for everyone. Now it’s Mad Max meets Apocalypse Now.

Anything think it all went a bit tits up in the last four years?
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The simple answer to that is that we are not severing ties with Europe we are leaving a trading bloc called the EU.
 
mexico1970 said:
The simple answer to that is that we are not severing ties with Europe we are leaving a trading bloc called the EU.
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Mëtal Bikër said:
Parliament dictates how the UK's EU Trade Deal negotiations will concluded, and it is currently dominated, after a recent national General Election, by MP's who are in favour of leaving the EU with a deal, ahead of those MP's who do not wish to leave at all.

Since England, Scotland, Wales and to some extent Northern Ireland are combined and represented at Westminster and the House of Commons, i'd say that this nation, by the result of people having voted in favour majorily for leave supporting MP's, that your little "slight" that Scotland, NI and Wales (who also voted in favour of leaving... yet people like you always forget that and make this a "England vs ROUK" issue) is absolute bollocks.

You must have missed the entire point about what the GE was meant to resolve (hint: it wasn't free broadband) It is going to be no deal, we are going to sever all ties with the EU, and the EU will have to shoulder a lot of the blame for trying to turn the trade negotiations into an exercise to punish a former member to ensure other members don't have the same idea. Best you start preparing for it.
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I’m not sure I agree on the motivation. There’s a big difference between not wanting someone outside of the bloc to have favourable terms compared to those within it and actively wanting to punish someone for leaving. I haven’t seen anything in the EUs proposals that make us worse off or punished more than anyone else outside of it.
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
It is going to be no deal, we are going to sever all ties with the EU, and the EU will have to shoulder a lot of the blame for trying to turn the trade negotiations into an exercise to punish a former member to ensure other members don't have the same idea. Best you start preparing for it.
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This is where it will fall down. No deal was not what was sold to voters pre 2016 election and it was a secondary outcome in the tory manifesto that 40 something % of the uk voted for. It has consistently had 20 something % support in polls. It will not be a popular outcome - it will be seen as a massive failure that we end up in that position to all but the most zealous of brexiteers.

The EU will not be blamed. The Tories pushed the concept of brexit and lied all the way along about what it would mean. The date for no deal is entirely optional and again the Tories choose to push it when an extension is offered. There is zero chance the blame the Eu narrative will gain traction. Tories/Leaves will own this.

As for preparing for it - what can any of us do. We are all just going to sit back on watch the shit show unravel. Not long now.
 
meltonblue said:
I’m not sure I agree on the motivation. There’s a big difference between not wanting someone outside of the bloc to have favourable terms compared to those within it and actively wanting to punish someone for leaving. I haven’t seen anything in the EUs proposals that make us worse off or punished more than anyone else outside of it.
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Agreed - no deal would be the worst out come but is also the outcome that Johnson has been positioning us for all along.

My challenge for brexiteers would be is No Deal what you want or is it punishment - It cant be both can it?
 
Gaudion M said:
This is where it will fall down. No deal was not what was sold to voters pre 2016 election and it was a secondary outcome in the tory manifesto that 40 something % of the uk voted for. It has consistently had 20 something % support in polls. It will not be a popular outcome - it will be seen as a massive failure that we end up in that position to all but the most zealous of brexiteers.

The EU will not be blamed. The Tories pushed the concept of brexit and lied all the way along about what it would mean. The date for no deal is entirely optional and again the Tories choose to push it when an extension is offered. There is zero chance the blame the Eu narrative will gain traction. Tories/Leaves will own this.

As for preparing for it - what can any of us do. We are all just going to sit back on watch the shit show unravel. Not long now.
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It wasn't "not" sold either. It was a distinct possibility and people were aware of it, given the recent attitudes stemming from the EU that has pissed a number of people off. You only have to listen to Verhofstadts rants to realise the utter contempt some of them hold.

"The tories, the tories, the tories". I've explained this to you once before. This decision crossed political aligiences, cultural differences, statuses and age. Anyone and everyone could have voted to leave the EU. None of the other parties made any attempt to endorse it, so we've ended up with the Conservatives holding the reins. It was not their decision to leave but the British public.

And you are aware that if we do not reach an agreement, and no deal becomes the relationship with the EU (not "Europe", Fauxwalski!) we don't go back in. You think leave voters will support going back into the EU where we MUST accept the Euro, Schengen, all the policies we voted to get out of, embrace a federal EU, the creation of an Army?

I'll give you a hint, that's a mighty hard sell!
 
BobKowalski said:
Some examples of where the UK is asking for Single Market benefits...

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Was it "undermining the Single Market" when it agreed similar with Japan and Canada?

See, it's not about co-operation or ensuring tarriff free trade, it's about "keeping EU STRONK!"
 
BobKowalski said:
Not sure how stating facts is ‘naivety’. Is that a Brexit thing? The EU is not a major geo political power because it has no competence in areas that would make it so ie Foreign, defence policy etc. The EU’s area is trade policy which it does project successfully beyond the borders of Europe.

That this pandemic may lead to an increase in EU competence is now looking likely. A coordinated health policy would have proven useful in a pandemic and with the desire to shorten production supply chains and have more control on health supplies will accelerate a common Europe wide health competence.

The recovery package, assuming it passes, will also formalise a more federalised monetary policy. The key point though is that like everything in the EU the member states have to agree on it happening and then make it happen. How federalised the EU becomes is in the gift of its sovereign members. Unless they agree on and vote for something to happen then it ain’t happening. Brexiteers never seem to grasp this point. UK politicians never seem to grasp it either hence Frost babbling that his letter was about trying to ‘alert European capitals about what the EU was demanding in negotiations’. European capitals already know. They are the ones who gave Barnier his fucking mandate in the negotiations. What they say goes. In four years of negotiations Brexiteers still haven’t grasped this basic fact.

Can the EU and it’s member states develop into a major geo-political power? Until now it has been content to let the US do the heavy lifting. However the US has disappeared up its own arse and China is filling the gap left by the US and it’s world view is not a pretty one so someone has to counter this with a more enlightened view. The major European countries are not keen on doing so but they are being increasingly forced to protect their interests overseas so again I see this crossroads moment in world leadership forcing the EU into exerting a bigger influence in foreign policy. Historically the EU has evolved faster in a crisis with the temporary becoming permanent. The pandemic and the US self immolating are the stimuli forcing this current evolution.

This leaves three European countries outside of the European norm. Russia, Belarus and the UK, we will assume the UK goes full Russia. How do these countries deal with an expanding EU and potentially a more coordinated EU in areas like foreign policy and defence? Belarus is in the Russian orbit and Russia is seen to be increasingly dependent on China given the EU countries won’t play ball with them. Ukrainian EU membership in 2024 will increase tensions and deepen Russian frustration that the EU never gave them the special status they felt was their right as a former superpower (echoes of the UK). China is now Russia’s biggest trade partner although Germany is still second despite EU sanctions.

If Russia gravitates into the Chinese camp I guess the only camp left for the UK (assuming it remains intact) is the US camp. China will be out given current tensions over HK, Covid-19, and the EU will be out given the Govt is now allergic to all things European despite our reliance on Europe. The Brexit playbook didn’t have it playing out like this. Our exit was meant to trigger the breakup of the EU and Global Britain would then lead the confused, weary nations of Europe out of the darkness and into the light blah, blah.

Personally I think we will be in the US camp but symbolically rather than practically. We will sign a US deal that yields some low hanging fruit and will it be hailed as a triumph In the same way we hailed our handling of the pandemic as a triumph (although not so much these days) and no doubt there will be some deal with the EU that allows us to keep the country running and it too will be hailed as a triumph no matter the actual substance.

Countries can live on pretence and slogans. It’s only when something serious turns up that it exposes the shallowness behind it and even then some people will still refuse to look behind the curtain.
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Just read that again....

It is absolutely riddled with something that I need to find the right word or term for...

Naivety - yes - but not just that

Lack of reality - yes - but not just that

Lack of understanding - yes - but not just that

Lack of research and objectivity - yes - but not just that

Etc. I will give it some thought
 
Gaudion M said:
Not sure you understand this.

The plant has received £800m of uk support over 30 yeas while we were in the EU. That is why they are there and it was most likely good value for money given the prosperity of the region and number of decent jobs maintained over that timeframe.

Nissan have said that in a no deal scenario their EU business model will be unsustainable, so that plant will very likely close or we will have to throw a massive amount of money at them. Are we throwing money at every manufacturing business that needs support post brexit? A massive cost to add to the already obscene cost of delivering brexit. Or are we going to let them all close?

None of this backs up any rationale to leave the EU.
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Given the recent announcement - not sure you have thought this through very well
 
BobKowalski said:
The benefit of Brexit. Interesting point from the Economist. In short the proposed EU Financial Recovery Plan would not have been possible without Brexit as Britain would have vetoed it.

Usually the UK shared common ground with the Dutch, Danes etc who now find themselves isolated. Has Brexit strengthened the position of Spain, Italy within the EU and given it better balance?

https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/05/30/the-eus-recovery-fund-is-a-benefit-of-brexit
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Did you not just post that all members states have to agree?
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
It wasn't "not" sold either. It was a distinct possibility and people were aware of it, given the recent attitudes stemming from the EU that has pissed a number of people off. You only have to listen to Verhofstadts rants to realise the utter contempt some of them hold.

"The tories, the tories, the tories". I've explained this to you once before. This decision crossed political aligiences, cultural differences, statuses and age. Anyone and everyone could have voted to leave the EU. None of the other parties made any attempt to endorse it, so we've ended up with the Conservatives holding the reins. It was not their decision to leave but the British public.

And you are aware that if we do not reach an agreement, and no deal becomes the relationship with the EU (not "Europe", Fauxwalski!) we don't go back in. You think leave voters will support going back into the EU where we MUST accept the Euro, Schengen, all the policies we voted to get out of, embrace a federal EU, the creation of an Army?

I'll give you a hint, that's a mighty hard sell!
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You know very well the the leave campaigns sold brexit on the basis there would be a trade deal. The tory manifesto sold the idea of a trade deal. The problem is that at every step is that it was pointed out the terms suggested where never going to be agreed. The cake argument of 2016 all over again. It was pointed out that these terms would not be agreeable and the actual outcome would be very damaging (i.e. No Deal), this was dismissed as 'Project Fear'.

You can not rewrite this history. We all know exactly what was said and by whom. We all knew it was BS from day 1.

We are now approaching the point where reality hits home. And the shit hits the fan.
 
mcfc1632 said:
Just read that again....

It is absolutely riddled with something that I need to find the right word or term for...

Naivety - yes - but not just that

Lack of reality - yes - but not just that

Lack of understanding - yes - but not just that

Lack of research and objectivity - yes - but not just that

Etc. I will give it some thought
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They announce Netflix series with less fanfare than this...
 
BobKowalski said:
A crisis accelerates the process. The migration crisis of 6 years ago accelerated the creation of Frontex the EU border force, tasked with policing the EU’s external border. The means to do so was already there but the crisis accelerated the process.

The election of Trump and his brand of batshit craziness accelerated the talk and formation of structures for a European defence policy.

The pandemic looks like accelerating the formalisation of a EU Treasury with powers to raise money, levy taxes.

Brexit means these processes can be carried out with less opposition.

You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that I am seeking to minimise these federalisation processes. I am not. I welcome them. What holds a united Europe back is the timidity most, if not all, member states have toward a deeper entrenchment of the European project. Crisis overcomes this timidity. It is a shame it takes a crisis to overcome what should be the inevitable and logical outcome of the European project but it is what it is.
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So you are really admitting that the EU will use this crisis to advance federalism and allow it to dictate acceptance by the sovereign nations

You have actually contradicted yourself several times today
 
BobKowalski said:
Given Italy is one of the biggest supporters of the recovery package I am not sure they will be that unhappy if it passes.

And again, for the zillionth time, for the EU to change it needs member states to agree. That is how it works.
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More contradiction of yourself - quite amusing TBH
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
The argument was that leavers have been considered liars whenever we mentioned that this was the future of Europe, and dissenters saying that this was never a reality. You must have missed that.

And anyway, without the UK's influence, the "beast" you mention is a mere poodle on the grand scheme of things, so us leaving it prevents the federalised Europe being anywhere near as influential as its supporters would like.
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TBF he is twisting so wildly today his head must hurt
 
mcfc1632 said:
So you are really admitting that the EU will use this crisis to advance federalism and allow it to dictate acceptance by the sovereign nations

You have actually contradicted yourself several times today
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‘Events, dear boy, events.’

History and politics is shaped by events.
 
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