Another new Brexit thread

[BlueAnorak]

We would be paying that amount, probably less, to keep supply chains and markets open for UK businesses and after a pandemic has seen an unprecedented hit to the UK economy.

Just as we rushed to trigger A50 without regard for the consequences we are rushing to rule out future actions without knowing what the state of the economy will be towards the end of this year.

So we triggered A50 too soon and without thinking it through or planning for it and we are doing exactly the same thing again. Oddly enough a certain D Cummings had some hard hitting observations of our A50 strategy. A strategy of such mind numbing stupidity we pointed out on here at the time.

Give over. The EU refused to negotiate before we submitted A50 and then refused to negotiate till money was agreed. There was enough time to plan but May's Remainer government just surrendered at each point. We should have said no trade negotiations = no deal and go from there.
After all it would always be a No deal outcome with Barniers negotiating tactics. It hasn't changed.
UK like-for-like tariff review with the EU (£12.8bn) would always exceed EU tariff revenue (£5.8bn) and allow the UK to protect its businesses with changes to taxation and increased business grants (deferred taxation). Its just a shame we agreed to pay them £32bn (or however much it was) to leave. Good job we never agreed a payment schedule as part of an agreement.

 

[Vic]

We would be paying that amount, probably less, to keep supply chains and markets open for UK businesses and after a pandemic has seen an unprecedented hit to the UK economy.

Just as we rushed to trigger A50 without regard for the consequences we are rushing to rule out future actions without knowing what the state of the economy will be towards the end of this year.

So we triggered A50 too soon and without thinking it through or planning for it and we are doing exactly the same thing again. Oddly enough a certain D Cummings had some hard hitting observations of our A50 strategy. A strategy of such mind numbing stupidity we pointed out on here at the time.

Is that from Cummings' blog about how the leave campaign should "swerve" all the difficult questions? It sounds more from his post-swerve dreadful-reality period.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

It's common sence. Not that you have any of that.

Brexiteer claiming common sence.

 

[Vic]

Clearly the plan is to leave with no deal and place all the blame for the economic consequences on Covid-19. In reality, no deal will only pour fuel on the fire. But as contemptible as it may be, it's great politics.

The queues and the shortages won't be blamed on Covid. Not unless they're planning a herd immunity second wave for January.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

‘Optimism and positivity’. Well that will come in handy when processing 7,500 lorries a day going through Calais to Dover and back again

“Ah monsieur, do you have your SO14 and CP65 forms for this consignment?”
“Nah guv, but I’ve got a truck full of optimism and positivity. Will that do?”

Have you met French customs? Nice bunch. They’ve even built a brand new customs facility to cope with the extra regulation and paperwork. We’ve built an optimism generator.

I asked you and others before and you never responded.

The day after we leave , if it is with a no deal, do you think the authorities firstly have the manpower, the facilities or the space in Calais to stop 7500 lorries . If you have been to Calais or any of the channel ports you will have to answer no on the space issue alone? Secondly if you were a French farmer with your regular weekly order of say 5000 chickens to Tesco. Who is going to stop you delivering them. The customs people will take instruction form the politicians and the politicians are simply not going to want to stop their businesses trading. Do you really think Merkel is going to ring up BMW and say do not export those cars to the UK today?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The queues and the shortages won't be blamed on Covid. Not unless they're planning a herd immunity second wave for January.

It's the cost that will cause the biggest stink. The government will have to spend a shit load for zero gain. We don't as yet know what that figure will be but when it comes out of the wood work and it is pointed out that it could have been spent on schools / hospitals / social care it will go down like a pint of sick.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The queues and the shortages won't be blamed on Covid. Not unless they're planning a herd immunity second wave for January.

What queues and what shortages?
Are the EU going to stop selling us stuff? Nope
As to the queues, anyone who hasn't moved to container port freight transit to/from the EU by the end of the year deserves to go bust (regardless of whether there is a deal or not).

 

[mcfc1632]

It's always fun being told to "defend" an opinion you've never even uttered or held.

Yeah - there is a desperate neeeeeed for them to seek to ridicule - and because they cannot use what we actually say - they need to invent/suggest (lie) that we have have said things that we have not.

I have already given a couple of examples of such lies earlier - and that is just from today. Another example that I read earlier was...…...

"I’m marvelling at the idiocy of those that think we’re heading for some sort of huge victory and laughing at the smugness that they’re displaying, and how prepared they are to agree with and like even the most inane and stupid comments where they have convinced themselves that we have the upper hand based on no evidence at all."

It is just utter disingenuous/lying bollocks

Have you ever said that we’re heading for some sort of huge victory and laughing at the smugness that they’re displaying??

Nope - me neither, I also have not seen any other Leaver saying so either - just more lies

Also have you seen Leavers that have....convinced themselves that we have the upper hand based on no evidence at all."

Nope - more bollocks

That they need to lie to themselves speaks volumes - and of course provides much merriment

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I asked you and others before and you never responded.

The day after we leave , if it is with a no deal, do you think the authorities firstly have the manpower, the facilities or the space in Calais to stop 7500 lorries . If you have been to Calais or any of the channel ports you will have to answer no on the space issue alone? Secondly if you were a French farmer with your regular weekly order of say 5000 chickens to Tesco. Who is going to stop you delivering them. The customs people will take instruction form the politicians and the politicians are simply not going to want to stop their businesses trading. Do you really think Merkel is going to ring up BMW and say do not export those cars to the UK today?

The answer in part to that is that it is our obligation under WTO to collect the tariff from the importer so two things:

1) If we don't collect that tariffs we are liable to claims from other WTO countries for compensation for not following the rules (unfair treatment as we are giving the EU a pass). WTO rules are a legal binding commitment that the UK has given and we can not ignore that without facing legal consequence.

2) The liability is on Tesco who will no doubt cost for it, just because the process isn't there the law is clear and big business won't piss about. They will factor the cost in and hold the funds ready for when the claim for duties comes in.

Note: how the EU are not involved in any of this and the solution to both 1 & 2 involves costing us more money. Where the EU comes in is on the flip side with UK > EU exports and I am 100% sure they will have a system functioning to claim the tariffs from UK trade - why would they not?

 

[BobKowalski]

Give over. The EU refused to negotiate before we submitted A50 and then refused to negotiate till money was agreed. There was enough time to plan but May's Remainer government just surrendered at each point. We should have said no trade negotiations = no deal and go from there.
After all it would always be a No deal outcome with Barniers negotiating tactics. It hasn't changed.
UK like-for-like tariff review with the EU (£12.8bn) would always exceed EU tariff revenue (£5.8bn) and allow the UK to protect its businesses with changes to taxation and increased business grants (deferred taxation). Its just a shame we agreed to pay them £32bn (or however much it was) to leave. Good job we never agreed a payment schedule as part of an agreement.

Tariffs are a tax on consumers and on businesses. You reckon it makes sense to levy additional taxes on consumers and businesses after a major hit to the economy? You think it makes sense to raise trade barriers and increase regulatory burdens after a major hit to the economy? You think it makes sense to raise trade barriers within our own inter UK trade after a major hit to the economy? You think it makes sense to do anything when in four years we have done precisely nothing to prepare or plan for life outside of the Single Market? Do you know what state our economy will be in at the end of the year? Do you know where we will be with regard to Covid-19? Or where the European economies will be? Or the US? Because I don’t and I’m damned sure I wouldn’t be ruling anything out 6 months before a major change and for which we have prepared precisely nothing.

I mean for fucks sake we can’t even competently plan to get fucking schools open.

 

[carlosthejackal]

Yep we’re leaving and everybody needs to accept it but if you are comfortable having Johnson , Gove , Cummings and the rest of these inept wankers holding sway over your families future then you will deserve the further misery they are about to inflict on you .

 

[Metal Biker]

Yep we’re leaving and everybody needs to accept it but if you are comfortable having Johnson , Gove , Cummings and the rest of these inept wankers holding sway over your families future then you will deserve the further misery they are about to inflict on you .

That's more the fault of the opposition being inept and unelectable, that has given rise to the Tory majority.

The Tories didn't gain many more votes than they did previously. Labour lost hundreds of thousands of votes across the nation, in typically Labour voting areas, to other parties that gifted seats to Tory MPs by default. Just like in the US 2016, it wasn't so much a case of people voting for the Tories, more so people choosing not to vote Labour, the main opposition.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The answer in part to that is that it is our obligation under WTO to collect the tariff from the importer so two things:

1) If we don't collect that tariffs we are liable to claims from other WTO countries for compensation for not following the rules (unfair treatment as we are giving the EU a pass). WTO rules are a legal binding commitment that the UK has given and we can not ignore that without facing legal consequence.

2) The liability is on Tesco who will no doubt cost for it, just because the process isn't there the law is clear and big business won't piss about. They will factor the cost in and hold the funds ready for when the claim for duties comes in.

Note: how the EU are not involved in any of this and the solution to both 1 & 2 involves costing us more money. Where the EU comes in is on the flip side with UK > EU exports and I am 100% sure they will have a system functioning to claim the tariffs from UK trade - why would they not?

First of all thanks for the courteous reply, it is appreciated.

Secondly, I believe my point still stands, there wont be any significant hold up at Channel ports. WTO tariffs are also likely to be imposed on the supplier as that is how the big supermarkets operate? As we import more from the EU than they do from us I would say it is pretty certain that they are likely to lose more in lost trade and tariffs ? I think we will find that competition with markets external to the EU will also ensure any minor delays are quickly removed and things move very efficiently. In my experience that tends to happen in business when both parties want to make things work.

Cheers

 

[BobKowalski]

I asked you and others before and you never responded.

The day after we leave , if it is with a no deal, do you think the authorities firstly have the manpower, the facilities or the space in Calais to stop 7500 lorries . If you have been to Calais or any of the channel ports you will have to answer no on the space issue alone? Secondly if you were a French farmer with your regular weekly order of say 5000 chickens to Tesco. Who is going to stop you delivering them. The customs people will take instruction form the politicians and the politicians are simply not going to want to stop their businesses trading. Do you really think Merkel is going to ring up BMW and say do not export those cars to the UK today?

The EU will implement full checks on UK goods from the 1st Jan. France and Netherlands spent millions on upgrading and building new custom facilities in 2019. Extra capacity and extra resources. We have spent nothing.

No one is ringing anyone saying don’t export. All they are saying is you will need new paperwork and there will be more stringent checks on UK goods. For the French farmer and his 5,000 chickens he will just waltz through because we are not implementing new paperwork or new checks on our side. We may not even be lobbing a tariff on as we may not have systems in place. It’s the UK farmer trying to get his produce into France who will have his paperwork checked, or goods given its animal produce or having a tariff levied.

So you want France and Netherlands to waive their legal requirements to relax custom controls, something we have to do because we no longer have time left to put the necessary systems in place? Sure. What are we going to concede for that? Payments? Fishing? What exactly? You want France do us a favour? In a no deal scenario after a pandemic, and solely because we couldn’t get out shit together in time? Oh and refused to accept an offer to extend transition that can help both sides?

I’m sure Macron gearing up for re-election will be all sweetness and light and eager to help the Brits out of a hole they have dug for themselves. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

First of all thanks for the courteous reply, it is appreciated.

Secondly, I believe my point still stands, there wont be any significant hold up at Channel ports. WTO tariffs are also likely to be imposed on the supplier as that is how the big supermarkets operate? As we import more from the EU than they do from us I would say it is pretty certain that they are likely to lose more in lost trade and tariffs ? I think we will find that competition with markets external to the EU will also ensure any minor delays are quickly removed and things move very efficiently. In my experience that tends to happen in business when both parties want to make things work.

Cheers

You have that the wrong way round. The cost is collected by the firm that receives the goods, so in your example it is Tesco who will have to pay. The EU based export firm are not involved although there will be a requirement for more paperwork but that is it for them. The onerous task is on the UK government to track what comes in, calculate the tariff and serve demand for payment on the importer. It can only logically push up prices in the UK.

As for non EU trade - when we leave the EU we will have worse trade deals with non EU countries than we have now so we will be hitting these suppliers with increased tariffs at the same time. Most of our food comes in with zero tariff via the EU trade deals (see image), we lose all of these in Jan 2021. While brexiteers like to talk this up as an opportunity it is in reality a battle to get back to where we are.

 

[mcfc1632]

Give over. The EU refused to negotiate before we submitted A50 and then refused to negotiate till money was agreed. There was enough time to plan but May's Remainer government just surrendered at each point. We should have said no trade negotiations = no deal and go from there.
After all it would always be a No deal outcome with Barniers negotiating tactics. It hasn't changed.
UK like-for-like tariff review with the EU (£12.8bn) would always exceed EU tariff revenue (£5.8bn) and allow the UK to protect its businesses with changes to taxation and increased business grants (deferred taxation). Its just a shame we agreed to pay them £32bn (or however much it was) to leave. Good job we never agreed a payment schedule as part of an agreement.

I have said often that the Remainer government have put the UK in a far worse place by 2019 than we were in 2016

The utter incompetence of Robbins and May has cost the nation £billions and years

 

[west didsblue]

You have that the wrong way round. The cost is collected by the firm that receives the goods, so in your example it is Tesco who will have to pay. The EU based export firm are not involved although there will be a requirement for more paperwork but that is it for them. The onerous task is on the UK government to track what comes in, calculate the tariff and serve demand for payment on the importer. It can only logically push up prices in the UK.

As for non EU trade - when we leave the EU we will have worse trade deals with non EU countries than we have now so we will be hitting these suppliers with increased tariffs at the same time. Most of our food comes in with zero tariff via the EU trade deals (see image), we lose all of these in Jan 2021. While brexiteers like to talk this up as an opportunity it is in reality a battle to get back to where we are.

You just need some positivity and it will all be fine.

 

[BlueAnorak]

You just need some positivity and it will all be fine.

Yes you do.
So here's a question for you.
At what point will EU goods fail possible UK inspections?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Yes you do.
So here's a question for you.
At what point will EU goods fail possible UK inspections?

Not sure that is relevant. We are talking about the basic WTO requirement to implement Tariffs. That alone is bad enough.

 

[BobKowalski]

So here we go, the Govt has published its outlines on the delayed plans to fully control our borders (arf) and if we ever get our shit together (arf) then lots of nice juicy regulations come into play. These will also partially apply to GB to NI trade.