If neither the EU or UK are willing to reduce their core demands - what possible point is there on an extension of any period?
I’m sorry mate. I totally misread your last post.I didn’t say they should.
Most Remainers can - it seems - only look back to decades ago rather than the decades to come.
Shock horror - that was the past - it will be the future that we will have to live through and which will see very difficult times for the EU and the UK had we Remained.
Now - when our grandchildren can look back with hindsight - the decision by the UK to quit EU membership will be seen as the key reason that (future) UK citizens are enjoying a better standard of living and prospects than the citizens of the residual EU members.
GDM is right - and I took his comments to be aimed mainly at Leave supporters that might now be rueing the prospects of No-Deal - although I do not know any of those.
Yes - the expectation was that a TA would have been entered into between the EU and the UK - but it seems that we have a situation of stalemate - where neither party can afford to acquiesce to the demands of the other.
I think that this is quite right - given where we are in June 2020.
GDM is correct to say that such an outcome was always possible - it takes 2 to make an agreement - we cannot force the EU to agree to a TA on our terms - and thankfully (now that May and Robbins has been fucked off) it appears that the EU is less able to force the UK into a TA on their terms.
The EU appear to have considered and come to the conclusion that the economic impact of No-Deal for them is far less a threat then the prospect of seeing the UK become a successful independent nation and therefore the cause of widespread and accelerated discontent across the EU27.
I am certainly someone that considers that the economic impact of No-Deal for us is far less a threat then the prospect of seeing the UK controlled through EU regulations - fuck - Remaining was less of a threat.
This is why there is absolutely zero point in an extension of any length and all efforts should go into No-Deal preparations and post 2020 management.
There is no magic solution for either Remainers or Leavers - the clock cannot be reset to June 2016 and the EU cannot be forced into a deal on our terms - so let's just get on with it and stop complaining.
Apart from the first line, nothing really. Just got into ranting mode and thought I’d see it through. Apologies, I’m sure it doesn’t happen to anyone else on the thread ;-)What’s that got to with my post?
the point is to prepare for a no deal Brexit. All the indications are that they will not do so adequately in the next six months.This is why there is absolutely zero point in an extension of any length and all efforts should go into No-Deal preparations and post 2020 management.
Yep, that’s my point. If we arbitrarily allow most EU imports to be tariff free without a trade deal as we have previously intimated, we would be in breach of WTO rules and could be forced to give every other country in the world the same terms. No one would be obliged to reciprocate and there’s no reason why they would throw away a competitive advantage that we would have given them on a plate. For this reason alone, No Deal is a non starter and we will most likely fold like a deck chair when push comes to shove because the alternative will be chaos. There is no way we can be ready in 6 months without a deal. Vassalage here we come, and it’s what the Leavers voted for whether they realised it or not.WTO has a set tariff system at its core so if you are trading on WTO you have to enforce it - that means customs and tariffs across the piece. That means collecting said tariffs from our EU imports. The SM is tariff free so you just let stuff through as long as it has confirmed EU origin, that is very simple. Collecting the right level of tariff is very complex and that is what will clog up the ports as you cant let stuff through without the paperwork.
The total mess that we are 6 months away from. If they were deadly serious of making a success of no deal they would take a 12 month extension now and use the time to put the systems in place. Johnson refused to contemplate an extension as it sounded good at the time, he refuses to go back on that as it would look bad. We can all see where this is heading.
Oh - I can understand that - I have been saying that we should have been doing No-Deal planning since 2016 - or at the very least 2017.the point is to prepare for a no deal Brexit. All the indications are that they will not do so adequately in the next six months.
Well yes - but no - because that is not going to happenOur grandchildren could look back and say, if only we stayed in, we wouldn't be living like pigs, as well.....just saying.
Disappointed with both sides to be honest. Insufficient effort and imagination from both teams. It certainly looks like this is what Johnson wanted.Oh - I can understand that - I have been saying that we should have been doing No-Deal planning since 2016 - or at the very least 2017.
What I mean is that there is no point in any extension for the purpose of undertaking negotiations. The EU clearly want an extension for the purpose of further negotiations
Personally - I would prefer a statement now that states that we leave at the end of December with No-Deal and we agree to phase in the implementation of trade/border arrangements from now up to June 2021 - but let's stop with any focus on negotiations if there is not going to be movement - it is just a distraction to both parties.
As both parties will have negative impacts from and issues of border management etc - and we are supposed to be supportive partners - it is in our joint interests to support each other in the implementation of an 'Australian TA' - but let's be clear that we have left and negotiations are ended - the rest is just planning and implementation.
Not my usual reading material - the Workers Socialist Web Site.....
But some interesting snippets in this dreadfully right-wing source;-)
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/06/30/mese-j30.html
We keep hearing from Remainers about the solidarity of the EU27 - a collection of 'equals' - whereas Leavers have been pointing out that, in reality, certain nations seem to call the tunes
Here we have (again) Macron and Merkel seemingly deciding key strategies and direction for the rest to follow.
A few extracts....
"After the EU blocked US citizens from entering Europe, Merkel and Macron called for stepped-up military spending and austerity to ensure Europe’s ability to wage war independently from Washington."
"She said Germany and France want to “play a joint role in the coming months, making it clear that Europe is our future ... Only in the European community will we be strong and play our role in the world.” The “great challenges” she foresaw included digitization, climate change, but also “the question of war and peace in the true sense of the word.”
"Currently the European powers are working closely together on transforming the EU into a military alliance that—unlike NATO—can act independently of and if necessary against the US......"
Makes me wonder about all those assurances in 2016/17 about there being no intentions for an EU army etc. of course that was a lie.
"She also suggested that limited concessions would be made to governments of more indebted EU countries in order to secure their support for Germany’s new bid for world power."
"In Meseburg, Merkel and Macron left no doubt that the working class will bear the costs of the crisis. Merkel made clear the €500 billion “Recovery Fund” proposed by Germany and France will be linked to savage austerity against working people. “Everyone must make themselves fit for the future at home” and “strengthen their own competitiveness....."
For me - it is obvious that the EU is on a path that the UK will/should be glad to not be a part of - we need to start by making a clean break - and then start to unpick any involvements being considered in the development of PESCO
As both parties will have negative impacts from and issues of border management etc - and we are supposed to be supportive partners - it is in our joint interests to support each other in the implementation of an 'Australian TA' - but let's be clear that we have left and negotiations are ended - the rest is just planning and implementation.
Sorry - I was just trying to be somewhat joking/sarcastic - I can accept that it does not come across in typeCalling it a Australia TA is repeating the BS. TA implies agreement where there is no agreement. You should call it what it is which is WTO or No Deal.
No movement you say?Oh - I can understand that - I have been saying that we should have been doing No-Deal planning since 2016 - or at the very least 2017.
What I mean is that there is no point in any extension for the purpose of undertaking negotiations. The EU clearly want an extension for the purpose of further negotiations
Personally - I would prefer a statement now that states that we leave at the end of December with No-Deal and we agree to phase in the implementation of trade/border arrangements from now up to June 2021 - but let's stop with any focus on negotiations if there is not going to be movement - it is just a distraction to both parties.
As both parties will have negative impacts from and issues of border management etc - and we are supposed to be supportive partners - it is in our joint interests to support each other in the implementation of an 'Australian TA' - but let's be clear that we have left and negotiations are ended - the rest is just planning and implementation.
No movement you say?
So before the weekend you had proof that
We will not see movement from the EU unless and until they are faced with the prospect of a viable walk-away option – and the political will to use it
but now you don't have proof.
Did you actually read that?Barnier effectively sending UK financial firms packing from the EU. No passporting. Of course we were assured they wouldn't do this.....
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/speech-barnier-eurofi-30062020_en.pdf
Did you actually read that?
If so - did you actually understand the narrative / points made?
Genuine question - and just curious as I cannot see what 'news' there is
And another genuine question - why do you seem to exult in good news for the EU - particularly when it is to the detriment of the UK - even if it takes your weird spin to make it so?
Irrelevant.Barnier effectively sending UK financial firms packing from the EU. No passporting. Of course we were assured they wouldn't do this.....
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/speech-barnier-eurofi-30062020_en.pdf
He’s a specialist in commenting on articles he hasn’t read, so here’s the bit you’re talking about. Can’t see much scope for a different interpretation.Barnier effectively sending UK financial firms packing from the EU. No passporting. Of course we were assured they wouldn't do this.....
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/speech-barnier-eurofi-30062020_en.pdf
You’re sort of correct in that the big City firms won’t suffer as they have been planning for this, but those plans have involved setting up offices in the EU, so although the companies won’t suffer too much, the City will due to the outflow of capital and services to the continent that will only be partly offset by EU companies setting up small UK offices.Irrelevant.
The City wont take a much of a hit if any.
The City prepared for this by Christmas 2017. I know, I worked on one of many major projects to deliver the IT in the cloud to do it. You cant stop services at a border. Even Eurotrading can be done remotety via a client office in the EU.
Some front office jobs will be lost in the UK but new front office jobs will be created in the UK by foreign firms who need City finance setting up London offices to do similar things as the City has done in reverse. The planed EU financial transaction tax will accelerate the latter. Indeed ther are 10% more City jobs in the UK than there were in June 2016.
Moving much of the City IT to the cloud even turned out to be a useful way of moving tax liabilities away from the UK should Corbyn have come to power.