Another new Brexit thread

[Saddleworth2]

Your mood may grow but the waistline should shrink:-)

Get brexit obliterate obesity, should have put it on the side of a bus.

hey, I already get a box of locally grown organic veggies delivered weekly. I also major on thai/vietnamese and singapore cuisine ;-)

Your not far off on the waistline however.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I will admit to having not heard of it.

Salty I hope?

Non, sans sel.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Indeed. From the polls I remember, the difference between 'leave' and 'remain' was marginal when taking into account the confidence interval.

Here are the details of the final poll IpsosMORI carried out just before 23 June 2016:

"Ipsos MORI’s final poll before the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union shows a tight race. The poll reveals among those most likely to vote and who say the result is important to them 52% will choose Remain while 48% will choose Leave (excluding the undecideds).

One week ago we saw leave ahead by 53% to 47%. Based on likely voters only (not on those who say the result is important as well), the equivalent figure in this poll is 49% leave 51% remain. And there is still scope for further shifts: 12% say they may change their mind before going to the polling station. There is little difference when it comes to voting stance however. Nine in ten (88%) Remain voters say they have definitely decided (11% may change their mind) compared with 85% of Leave voters (14% who may change their mind)."

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-eu-referendum-prediction-poll


Using the data from the last pre-referendum poll delivered by IpsosMORi in which 52% selected 'Remain' and 48% 'leave', the confidence interval (based on a 95% confidence interval), assuming a representative sample (which I would expect), is roughly +/-2.5% for both recorded scores. Thus, the estimated scores would be:

• Remain - 49.5% to 54.5%
• Leave - 45.5% and 50.5%

A clear overlap. They were only 1.5% out even accounting for the '12% may change their mind' and those 'undecided' were exculded.

Anyone know why Brexiters see 'beating the pollsters' as some kind of triumph? I don't get it.

Nobody ever 'beats' pollsters, pollsters just get it wrong.

 

[mcfc1632]

Not sure what we were mean't to be hoping for tbh. If Trump got in we were going to get a deal that apparently involved the horrors of privatised NHS and chlorinated chicken, and if Biden got in then there would be no deal and the post brexit apocalypse would be further compounded. Clearly, faced with two such dire options the only sensible course of action would apparently be remain / revoke (again) it would seem.

This narrative that a Biden win is somehow bad for the UK and that it means no trade deal is utterly ludicrous.

Fuck - just putting my toe back into this thread after a 2 week break

I made the mistake of first visiting a couple of other threads on the politics sub-forum and was shocked at the sheer flood of bitterness and bile from the usual 'contributors' - makes me wonder what this thread has 'benefited' from over the last 2 weeks

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Fuck - just putting my toe back into this thread after a 2 week break

I made the mistake of first visiting a couple of other threads on the politics sub-forum and was shocked at the sheer flood of bitterness and bile from the usual 'contributors' - makes me wonder what this thread has 'benefited' from over the last 2 weeks

Really looking forward to you going back two weeks and then responding post by post by post. That’ll be great.

 

[west didsblue]

Fuck - just putting my toe back into this thread after a 2 week break

I made the mistake of first visiting a couple of other threads on the politics sub-forum and was shocked at the sheer flood of bitterness and bile from the usual 'contributors' - makes me wonder what this thread has 'benefited' from over the last 2 weeks

A lot less bloviation.

 

[Manc in London]

Nobody ever 'beats' pollsters, pollsters just get it wrong.

They get it right too.

They use models. Models are not perfect. Polling around voting is complex. No-one, to my knowledge, has nailed it.

 

[journolud]

Fuck - just putting my toe back into this thread after a 2 week break

I made the mistake of first visiting a couple of other threads on the politics sub-forum and was shocked at the sheer flood of bitterness and bile from the usual 'contributors' - makes me wonder what this thread has 'benefited' from over the last 2 weeks

A timely return to the thread for you as we approach the (latest) deadline for a deal. Instead of commentating on the thread(s), we can all read them, why don’t you give us your perspective on where things are.

Most of us on here seem to think a deal is imminent. What about you? Have we successfully played the viable walk away option to get significant movement from the EU? What do you think the departure of Cummings and Cain mean for the negotiations? Will we get a deal that pleases Farage and the ERG or a fudge that pleases nobody?

 

[hilts]

They get it right too.

They use models. Models are not perfect. Polling around voting is complex. No-one, to my knowledge, has nailed it.

I think we have learnt that unless a lead is a pretty fucking big one, we should keep the champers on ice.

I know for a fact that @gordondaviesmoustache opened a 1945 Romanee-Conti Burgundy on the basis of a poll giving Engelbert Humperdinck a 2% lead in the Eurovision final.

12 points he got, half a million bottle of plonk ouch. He had a perfectly good bottle of white lightning sat in the cellar.

 

[blueish swede]

I don't see a deal happening.

Johnson has been a disasterous PM and even he must realise the game is up. He will be looking to his legacy. A wishy-washy deal with the EU won't be good enough. A bold no-deal exit will cement his place in history,

One might hope that the adults in the room would guide the idiot towards signing a deal - but I dont think there are any left in the Tory party.

 

[dave_blue12]

I don't see a deal happening.

Johnson has been a disasterous PM and even he must realise the game is up. He will be looking to his legacy. A wishy-washy deal with the EU won't be good enough. A bold no-deal exit will cement his place in history,

One might hope that the adults in the room would guide the idiot towards signing a deal - but I dont think there are any left in the Tory party.

I totally agree.

Any deal makes Johnson look weak to his party and supporters.

No deal and blame the EU, that's clearly the way to go !

Hope I'm wrong.

I have been hoping to be wrong all along about Brexit but so far I've seen nothing to encourage that view.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

The vote was a binary choice with no list attached. Those still railing against the result might as well sit in the corner with trump crying about electoral arithmetic not going the way they want.

Yup, they are great democrats until they find themselves in the minority and then democracy is a crock of Stretford sewage.

 

[west didsblue]

.

I don't see a deal happening.

Johnson has been a disasterous PM and even he must realise the game is up. He will be looking to his legacy. A wishy-washy deal with the EU won't be good enough. A bold no-deal exit will cement his place in history,

One might hope that the adults in the room would guide the idiot towards signing a deal - but I dont think there are any left in the Tory party.

There’s a pretty good chance you’re right. A quick glance at the comments section of the Mail and Express shows that that he has plenty of support for No Deal. These idiots will only realise how wrong they have been when they have to live through the consequences, although they’ll no doubt initially blame their diminished circumstances on Remainers and the EU.

 

[Vic]

Really looking forward to you going back two weeks and then responding post by post by post. That’ll be great.

He can start with this one, about why I was wrong about fishing (not). He went missing instead.

Just on half-term parental duties for a while - will explain later

 

[mcfc1632]

Really looking forward to you going back two weeks and then responding post by post by post. That’ll be great.

Thanks - but, TBF,I can see that I am 60 pages behind

I was not looking forward to ploughing through all those - I dread to think just how many there are where some Remainers continue to post their lack of understanding of negotiations - but I like to respond to requests so will make the effort

Probably tomorrow when I have time to give the posts the time they 'deserve'

 

[mcfc1632]

Very much the case. USA looks after USA.

Oh, if only we had that size and clout.
Oh wait.

Perhaps we could be better off then to stay in the EU and have the UK be used to help the EU take care of countries other than the UK - to the UK's detriment;-)

Bloody hell - this could be a long catch-up

 

[Vic]

I don't see a deal happening.

Johnson has been a disasterous PM and even he must realise the game is up. He will be looking to his legacy. A wishy-washy deal with the EU won't be good enough. A bold no-deal exit will cement his place in history,

One might hope that the adults in the room would guide the idiot towards signing a deal - but I dont think there are any left in the Tory party.

Do you really think that someone who knew leaving was a bad idea would want a legacy of making the worst of a bad idea?

 

[Saddleworth2]

Perhaps we could be better off then to stay in the EU and have the UK be used to help the EU take care of countries other than the UK - to the UK's detriment;-)

Bloody hell - this could be a long catch-up

you mean instead of spending the contribution we used to make to the EU on our own health service and economy? what a great idea. I’m sure I saw that on the side of a bus.

 

[mcfc1632]

Why? boats are shit for the environment as well. Unless they are going by wind power alone which they wouldn't.

The nonsense you lot tie yourselves up in to try and win an argument.

The nonsense that the pages of posts from Remainers trying to make bad news out of the issue of importing flowers demonstrated:

a) 6th November must have been a really slow day,
b) that some Remainers have such a need to find bad news everywhere (even in articles that they have clearly not read) and
c) There is satisfaction to be found in being able to scroll past so many pages of such 'bad news' because you are catching up

 

[journolud]

The nonsense that the pages of posts from Remainers trying to make bad news out of the issue of importing flowers demonstrated:

a) 6th November must have been a really slow day,
b) that some Remainers have such a need to find bad news everywhere (even in articles that they have clearly not read) and
c) There is satisfaction to be found in being able to skip so many pages of such 'bad news' because you are catching up

Everyone has moved on from the flowers, we're on butter now. Obviously point c is moot as you didn't skip it, you got drawn in.