Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

"We will not see movement from the UK unless and until they are faced with the prospect of a viable walk-away option – and the political will to use it” - Macron1632

That would hardly have been an EU view until early 2020. They had previously had 3 years experience of the hapless May and incompetent Robbins caving in to their every request

 

[mcfc1632]

Some genuinely believed we were. Not everyone is as mendacious as Gove. Some people are just thick.

TBF - I cannot recall seeing a single post from any Leaver on this forum that has suggested that the UK are in the driving seat

I have seen some that push back against the oft repeated Remainer view that the UK have zero position and will just need to implement what is dictated to them by the omnipotent EU - but that is very different

Are we in danger of going back to labelling Leave supporters thick?

 

[mcfc1632]

Should have kicked the can down the road six months ago. It’s asking so much of businesses to cope with both covid and brexit and the uncertainty in both.

From a POV of managing the negotiations - that would have been exactly what the EU would have wanted - and indeed exactly what they sought - so would not have been good negotiations from the UK

 

[jaseirai]

From a POV of managing the negotiations - that would have been exactly what the EU would have wanted - and indeed exactly what they sought - so would not have been good negotiations from the UK

Micron has deployed the old last minute unreasonable demand trick. Let's hope they don't fold like the sailor in 73.

Access Restricted

 

[journolud]

I respectfully suggest that you have that wrong in a number of ways

You say yourself that the EU are compromising - this after years of utter clarity in their statements that they will not - and also years of posters on here repeating that

And now - as you say yourself - they are compromising. so.....

Why would that be - if they have no need to?

Just what could they be seeing as an unpalatable alternative that makes them instead offer up compromises?

Just think it through with objectivity and the answer will be obvious I suggest

We fundamentally disagree. Were there years of utter clarity in their statements that they wouldn’t compromise? If that was the case they would have no need to come to the negotiating table at all, their position would be clear. And as for some posters saying that would be the case, so what they were expressing opinions and making predictions based on their own bias just like you and I do. It would be disingenuous to characterise the majority of remainers as having that view.

Could it be that the EU were always willing to compromise and the reason for this is because the UK were also willing to do so not that they were frightened of a pointless display of machismo that would have translated as a monumental act of national self harm. For someone who claims to have the inside track on how negotiations work you are being wilfully naive if you think that dick waving and posturing is the way to get the other side on board

 

[ZenHalfTimeCrock]

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

At least we hold all the cards

Yep ... we do.

 

[Vic]

TBF - I cannot recall seeing a single post from any Leaver on this forum that has suggested that the UK are in the driving seat

I have seen some that push back against the oft repeated Remainer view that the UK have zero position and will just need to implement what is dictated to them by the omnipotent EU - but that is very different

Are we in danger of going back to labelling Leave supporters thick?

It seems a long while since German cars and Italian prosecco were our trump card.

I can't recall any Remainer saying the EU would not compromise, except on not giving us access to the single market or a CU without paying the club subs.

As for the French veto I often pointed out that we should do a deal while the EU just needed majority approval rather than needing unanimity and risk our being at the mercy of any member's veto. It might have been Spain over Gibraltar, but it turns out to be France over fish.

I'll side with our shellfish exporters who would happily let the French fish our waters rather than "we're the best" unicorn lovers who think we can recover a lost era of British fishing with British boats and British crews.

As for Macron, that's the problem when you think making unreasonable demands is the way to yes. Learnt behaviour from the UK team. And now out on a limb to showboat to a domestic audience with a late demand that relies on UK desperation (ignoring the desperation of most of the rest of the EU to get a basic deal and avoid the worst of a no deal) but risks still annoying the domestic audience if he compromises.

We could of course have always recognised where the damage would be done (Irish farming, French and others' fishing fleets) and offer amelioration rather than posture to our domestic audience with absolute "independent coastal state" rhetoric.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

TBF - I cannot recall seeing a single post from any Leaver on this forum that has suggested that the UK are in the driving seat

I have seen some that push back against the oft repeated Remainer view that the UK have zero position and will just need to implement what is dictated to them by the omnipotent EU - but that is very different

Are we in danger of going back to labelling Leave supporters thick?

I’ve never labelled leave supporters thick. Some of the most intelligent people I know voted leave. Some people are simply thick. This is a fact.

You shouldn’t be so insecure about your intelligence, or how it is perceived by others. You’ve always struck me as a reasonably intelligent person.

 

[west didsblue]

It seems a long while since German cars and Italian prosecco were our trump card.

I can't recall any Remainer saying the EU would not compromise, except on not giving us access to the single market or a CU without paying the club subs.

As for the French veto I often pointed out that we should do a deal while the EU just needed majority approval rather than needing unanimity and risk our being at the mercy of any member"s veto. It might have been Spain over Gibraltar, but it turns out to be France over fish.

I'll side with our shellfish exporters who would happily let the French fish our waters rather than "we're the best" unicorn lovers who think we can recover a lost era of British fishing with British boats and British crews.

As for Macron, that's the problem when you think making unreasonable demands is the way to yes. Learnt behaviour from the UK team. And now out on a limb to showboat to a domestic audience with a late demand that relies on UK desperation (ignoring the desperation of most of the rest of the EU to get a basic deal and avoid the worst of a no deal) but risks still annoying the domestic audience if he compromises.

We could of course have always recognised where the damage would be done (Irish farming, French and others' fishing fleets) and offer amelioration rather than posture to our domestic audience with absolute "independent coastal state" rhetoric.

If we hold out and get a win on fish at the expense of LPF and governance we might be able to increase its share of the economic output of the country from 0.02% to 0.03%. I think we’ll end up with an EU concession on fish as a fig leaf to cover our embarrassment when we fold on the important issues.

 

[Rascal]

I have been looking at modern monetary theory and this morning had a light bulb moment, i was influenced to have that moment but anyway for what its worth this is important.

Outside of the EU and with our currency means that because our Government issues its own currency it can purchase anything that is for sale as it faces no constraints such as those imposed by the EU. This includes all idle labour. This with the will of the government could guarentee full employment, which is a basic tenet of Socialism and a policy the Labour party had for years post WW2.

 

[meltonblue]

From a POV of managing the negotiations - that would have been exactly what the EU would have wanted - and indeed exactly what they sought - so would not have been good negotiations from the UK

I don’t think any benefit from that either outweighs the impact of implementing a deal during the pandemic nor could have been achieved anyway.

 

[mcfc1632]

We fundamentally disagree. Were there years of utter clarity in their statements that they wouldn’t compromise? If that was the case they would have no need to come to the negotiating table at all, their position would be clear. And as for some posters saying that would be the case, so what they were expressing opinions and making predictions based on their own bias just like you and I do. It would be disingenuous to characterise the majority of remainers as having that view.

Could it be that the EU were always willing to compromise and the reason for this is because the UK were also willing to do so not that they were frightened of a pointless display of machismo that would have translated as a monumental act of national self harm. For someone who claims to have the inside track on how negotiations work you are being wilfully naive if you think that dick waving and posturing is the way to get the other side on board

Well - I do not think that I have claimed to have the inside track on 'these' negotiations.

I have though acted for the UK government as the lead negotiator on a number of occasions and I get commissioned frequently, including last week, by governments in the UK to provide advice on approaches to procurements and negotiations. It is that experience that I draw upon and which leads me to consider your somewhat unnecessarily insulting comments to be just a display of your exasperation and not worth responding to in like.

You will not be the only Remainer on here that cannot bring themselves to simply accept that the view I have stated consistently for 3 over years has indeed been proven, by the events of 2020, to have been consistently correct.

I have to date not lost any sleep over the issue that other people have these flaws of character

 

[mcfc1632]

Micron has deployed the old last minute unreasonable demand trick. Let's hope they don't fold like the sailor in 73.

Access Restricted

I have repeatedly expressed my concerns that Johnson will concede based on his stupidity rather than as part of an agreed strategy.

If I was Frost, I would be advising that a better outcome for the UK than the one we are currently 'tentatively' agreed on - before Macron's intervention - would be to offer a 5 year extension of the current status - in return for more concessions from the EU on LPF.

Macron would take that as it would help his domestic issues ahead of the French election and that could - most likely would - lead to a double/treble win for the UK overall

 

[mcfc1632]

I’ve never labelled leave supporters thick. Some of the most intelligent people I know voted leave. Some people are simply thick. This is a fact.

You shouldn’t be so insecure about your intelligence, or how it is perceived by others. You’ve always struck me as a reasonably intelligent person.

TBF - I accept that your comment on people being thick was just a general and accurate comment - not one aimed at Leavers collectively- apols

Also, TBF, I don't think anyone that actually knows me has ever considered me to be thick - or insecure;-)

 

[west didsblue]

TBF - I accept that your comment on people being thick was just a general and accurate comment - not one aimed at Leavers collectively- apols

Also, TBF, I don't think anyone that actually knows me has ever considered me to be thick - or insecure;-)

Arrogant and pompous are the adjectives that spring to mind.

 

[mcfc1632]

I have been looking at modern monetary theory and this morning had a light bulb moment, i was influenced to have that moment but anyway for what its worth this is important.

Outside of the EU and with our currency means that because our Government issues its own currency it can purchase anything that is for sale as it faces no constraints such as those imposed by the EU. This includes all idle labour. This with the will of the government could guarentee full employment, which is a basic tenet of Socialism and a policy the Labour party had for years post WW2.

You and I have agreed for some time that there cannot be a socialist government in the UK whilst members if the EU - and therefore it follows that all people that hold themselves to be supporters of a socialist regime in the UK should support Leaving the EU

I think the issue is that there are a good many 'faux socialists'

 

[journolud]

Well - I do not think that I have claimed to have the inside track on 'these' negotiations.

I have though acted for the UK government as the lead negotiator on a number of occasions and I get commissioned frequently, including last week, by governments in the UK to provide advice on approaches to procurements and negotiations. It is that experience that I draw upon and which leads me to consider your somewhat unnecessarily insulting comments to be just a display of your exasperation and not worth responding to in like.

You will not be the only Remainer on here that cannot bring themselves to simply accept that the view I have stated consistently for 3 over years has indeed been proven to be consistently correct. I have to date not lost any sleep over the issue that other people have these flaws of character

Well it’s an eye roll emoji from me, or should that be a Gallic shrug

 

[mcfc1632]

I don’t think any benefit from that either outweighs the impact of implementing a deal during the pandemic nor could have been achieved anyway.

What has been happening these lasts months has been negotiating a deal - rather than implementing it

My comment was in the context that - from a POV of negotiations - an extension would have been beneficial to the EU - hence they went for it big-time and resisting an extension was to the benefit of the UK

The detail of the emerging deal and the materialisation of compromises by the EU only occurs due to the implementation date being hardwired - they would not be making the same movement if there had been an extension

 

[jaseirai]

I have been looking at modern monetary theory and this morning had a light bulb moment, i was influenced to have that moment but anyway for what its worth this is important.

Outside of the EU and with our currency means that because our Government issues its own currency it can purchase anything that is for sale as it faces no constraints such as those imposed by the EU. This includes all idle labour. This with the will of the government could guarentee full employment, which is a basic tenet of Socialism and a policy the Labour party had for years post WW2.

I’m not sure it’s monetary or a theory anymore. It’s been put into practice in this country and others. We’ll get to see if it works in time.