Another new Brexit thread

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As a remainer, I just wanted a deal that maximises freedom of trade and goods, the Irish border to be open and my holidays not to be held up at airports.

With 7 days to go I am still none the wiser if any of the above have been secured.

Yes, a deal is better than a no deal. But what is the deal???
 
Hart of the Matter said:
Read that. Means fuck all in real terms. I know the detail. What will the practicalities look like? Prices, cues, travel, paper work. Seems a lot of key things and conflict resolutions have been kicked into the long grass.
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That will be evolve over the next few months.
 
BlueAnorak said:
To be fair- that's pretty close to what has been delivered.
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I've obviously been confused by IDS. One minute he's complaining that the EU said we could have Canada plus but they went back on that, last week he said the EU haven't budged an inch, now we've apparently got Canada plus or minus, but we gave up an immediate border round our fish... is there anything obvious or substantial in the EU's stance that really wasn't available months ago?
 
BlueAnorak said:
To be fair- that's pretty close to what has been delivered.
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If you say so.

I get the impression nothing much has changed on the EU side for a couple of months. We have an enforceable LPF, a five year (or is it six?) transition to the EU reducing their fishing catch by 25% (instead of 80%). Country of origin rules apply to all zero tariff exports.

We’ve got what we want in that we’re out of the CU and SM but it’s a bit much to suggest we’re not tied to their regulations. Technically we can do what we want but there’s potential consequences with the imposition of tariffs etc. if we diverge. Of course it works both ways but we all know who’s tied to who.

As I’ve said I’m reasonably happy with the deal as it’s infinitely better than the No Deal alternative, but it’s no great victory for the UK irrespective of the spin from the Express, Telegraph and No 10 press office.
 
Just a few initial thoughts on some of the detail coming out about the deal.

First of all a lot of the gloss over BoJo's announcement is already coming off.

Brexit purists I suspect will not be happy as the UK remains within the EU's orbit BIGLY on trade ( LPF).This will serve as a break on ' Buccaneering' Britain' which for many was the whole point of Brexit. The UK can of course break free from some or all of the rules but will then incur tariffs. This may of course be the Govt's long term intention to make a clean break and the Govester may well be seeking to buy off the ERG with this promise. In this context Farage may have also been promised something as fishing and the UK having 100% access in it's own waters was the acid test for him of a clean and pure brexit. The UK however has largely caved on fishing but strangely Nige has declared ' the war is over'.

I suspect 'normal' Brexit punters will be relieved and satisfied at the moment. We are out of the single market, customs union and the ECJ and we have a deal on trade and other stuff. Whether they remain so will depend on the short/medium term economic hit arising from the many non tariff barriers to trade and the deal not covering services ( including finance services).Important in this context could be how much of this hit can be 'hidden' by Covid. The extra cost and inconvenience of European holidays will also piss many people off.

Remainers will 'remain' disappointed. There will be no healing and coming together.
The Government is committed to a policy of divisiveness, identity and culture wars. Indeed it is the whole rationale of it's existence.
 
west didsblue said:
If you say so.

I get the impression nothing much has changed on the EU side for a couple of months. We have an enforceable LPF, a five year (or is it six?) transition to the EU reducing their fishing catch by 25% (instead of 80%). Country of origin rules apply to all zero tariff exports.

We’ve got what we want in that we’re out of the CU and SM but it’s a bit much to suggest we’re not tied to their regulations. Technically we can do what we want but there’s potential consequences with the imposition of tariffs etc. if we diverge. Of course it works both ways but we all know who’s tied to who.

As I’ve said I’m reasonably happy with the deal as it’s infinitely better than the No Deal alternative, but it’s no great victory for the UK irrespective of the spin from the Express, Telegraph and No 10 press office.
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Agreed. If the purpose of Brexit and this deal is to ‘liberate’ the UK from the EU economic orbit then it fails to do this. The deal, along with the WA and the NI protocols keeps the UK within that orbit.

Rather than calling this deal a Free Trade Agreement, it should be a Managed Trade Agreement with its rules, committees, and arbitrations in which trade between the UK and EU and trade between GB and NI is managed and codified. It reflects the reality of our geographical position and relative size of the UK and EU.

Remainers should be reasonably happy with the deal given it provides a base for future negotiations on things that we will inevitably want back in and as you say is infinitely better than no deal.

The media is just falling into the same pattern of the WA and NI protocols. Initially declaring a huge victory, then urging the Govt to unilaterally disregard the agreement nine months later.

Fact is, the WA provisions are still there, there will be a customs border in the Irish Sea, NI citizens will get additional benefits not available to other UK citizens and we now have a deal that manages trade between the UK and EU with rules and penalty provisions built in. UK firms will also face greater administrative burdens when trading with Europe, so a boon to the UK red tape industry at least.

Not great for UK industries, but could have been a lot worse.
 
joe123 said:
I doubt we’ll ever see any real benefits tbh, but the Brexiteers can now feel free of the evil EU, so good for them.

What will be interesting over the next few years and months is who the next bogeyman is when it transpires is wasn’t being in the EU that was making life so shitty.
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It will still be the EU. It will always be the EU. Anytime we can’t ‘do something‘ it will be the fault of the deal with the EU and there will be demands we ‘break free’ of the EU. Election campaigns will be fought on our relationship with the EU, should we be closer, more distant and so on.

It will eventually drive us mad.
 
Ha and now the CBI decides that the deal is so good we will outstrip the EU in terms of growth over the next 15 years...
Load of bollox of course. Economic predictions are like cutting open a goat and examining the entrails. Effing useless.
Still we are finally free of the drive to political union.
 
Len Rum said:
Just a few initial thoughts on some of the detail coming out about the deal.

First of all a lot of the gloss over BoJo's announcement is already coming off.

Brexit purists I suspect will not be happy as the UK remains within the EU's orbit BIGLY on trade ( LPF).This will serve as a break on ' Buccaneering' Britain' which for many was the whole point of Brexit. The UK can of course break free from some or all of the rules but will then incur tariffs. This may of course be the Govt's long term intention to make a clean break and the Govester may well be seeking to buy off the ERG with this promise. In this context Farage may have also been promised something as fishing and the UK having 100% access in it's own waters was the acid test for him of a clean and pure brexit. The UK however has largely caved on fishing but strangely Nige has declared ' the war is over'.

I suspect 'normal' Brexit punters will be relieved and satisfied at the moment. We are out of the single market, customs union and the ECJ and we have a deal on trade and other stuff. Whether they remain so will depend on the short/medium term economic hit arising from the many non tariff barriers to trade and the deal not covering services ( including finance services).Important in this context could be how much of this hit can be 'hidden' by Covid. The extra cost and inconvenience of European holidays will also piss many people off.

Remainers will 'remain' disappointed. There will be no healing and coming together.
The Government is committed to a policy of divisiveness, identity and culture wars. Indeed it is the whole rationale of it's existence.
Click to expand...

A deal on trade in tangilbe goods, Len, nothing about services. The EU has a trade surplus with the UK in goods and a trade deficit in services.
 
west didsblue said:
If you say so.

I get the impression nothing much has changed on the EU side for a couple of months. We have an enforceable LPF, a five year (or is it six?) transition to the EU reducing their fishing catch by 25% (instead of 80%). Country of origin rules apply to all zero tariff exports.

We’ve got what we want in that we’re out of the CU and SM but it’s a bit much to suggest we’re not tied to their regulations. Technically we can do what we want but there’s potential consequences with the imposition of tariffs etc. if we diverge. Of course it works both ways but we all know who’s tied to who.

As I’ve said I’m reasonably happy with the deal as it’s infinitely better than the No Deal alternative, but it’s no great victory for the UK irrespective of the spin from the Express, Telegraph and No 10 press office.
Click to expand...
Exclude me from "we" .... Half the voters got what they wanted (if they understood CU and SM) - except those who voted Leave who wanted to stay in EFTA, so (unless MB was the only one) most voters didn't necessarily want to be out of the CU and SM.

(No need to rehearse the "what Leave wanted" stuff - I'm just making a distinction between healing division and revisionism on what the divisions were.)
 
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