Another new Brexit thread

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Len Rum said:
Just a few initial thoughts on some of the detail coming out about the deal.

First of all a lot of the gloss over BoJo's announcement is already coming off.

Brexit purists I suspect will not be happy as the UK remains within the EU's orbit BIGLY on trade ( LPF).This will serve as a break on ' Buccaneering' Britain' which for many was the whole point of Brexit. The UK can of course break free from some or all of the rules but will then incur tariffs. This may of course be the Govt's long term intention to make a clean break and the Govester may well be seeking to buy off the ERG with this promise. In this context Farage may have also been promised something as fishing and the UK having 100% access in it's own waters was the acid test for him of a clean and pure brexit. The UK however has largely caved on fishing but strangely Nige has declared ' the war is over'.

I suspect 'normal' Brexit punters will be relieved and satisfied at the moment. We are out of the single market, customs union and the ECJ and we have a deal on trade and other stuff. Whether they remain so will depend on the short/medium term economic hit arising from the many non tariff barriers to trade and the deal not covering services ( including finance services).Important in this context could be how much of this hit can be 'hidden' by Covid. The extra cost and inconvenience of European holidays will also piss many people off.

Remainers will 'remain' disappointed. There will be no healing and coming together.
The Government is committed to a policy of divisiveness, identity and culture wars. Indeed it is the whole rationale of it's existence.
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Re the last point, much as I hate what the Tory party has become (which means I guess lower than the historic lower than vermin), I hope it's not policy for divisiveness, identity and culture wars, but just run of the mill idiocy.
 
Vic said:
"Further negotiations are inevitable in 2021 to flesh out the agreement. It all means the discount that has dogged UK assets since 2016 will not vanish soon."

Not never ending palaver?
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There are still years of negotiation left, not least on services. Though I assume our ‘viable walkaway’ option of no deal is now out of the game so don’t know what cards we have left. It will also be a battleground of every election, with the sides promising a different relationship with the eu.
I can’t see it being settled, ever really.
 
Len Rum said:
Why mention it then?
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Why?
Well some clever chap is bound to point out that there were a large number of economic projections stating Brexit woukd be a disaster.
One has to be consistent.
Leaving the EU political project is the be all and end all for most leavers.
 
BobKowalski said:
It will still be the EU. It will always be the EU. Anytime we can’t ‘do something‘ it will be the fault of the deal with the EU and there will be demands we ‘break free’ of the EU. Election campaigns will be fought on our relationship with the EU, should we be closer, more distant and so on.

It will eventually drive us mad.
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This bloke in our apartment block came round today and asked me to stop playing my trombone. "Can you please stop playing that trombone?" he said, "It's driving me mad".

"It's too late," I told him, "I stopped playing an hour ago."
 
BlueAnorak said:
Why?
Well some clever chap is bound to point out that there were a large number of economic projections stating Brexit woukd be a disaster.
One has to be consistent.
Leaving the EU political project is the be all and end all for most leavers.
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Fair point.
So why didn't you mention the CBI optimistic brexit forecast in that context in your original post instead of rubbishing it?
 
BlueAnorak said:
Ha and now the CBI decides that the deal is so good we will outstrip the EU in terms of growth over the next 15 years...
Load of bollox of course. Economic predictions are like cutting open a goat and examining the entrails. Effing useless.
Still we are finally free of the drive to political union.
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Not only bollox but the wrong organisation. Not CBI, but CEBR, a consultancy, who said in October 2019 (about the deal then possibly on offer):

On negative assumptions, Canada Plus in the long term could leave UK GDP 3.2% lower than it otherwise would be. But on positive assumptions it could leave UK GDP more than 1.4% higher by 2030 than it otherwise would be (relative to No Deal). What happens will depend on how the deal is followed up.

The key factors likely to determine whether the deal will have positive or negative effects are:
  • Impact on migration of skilled talent to the UK. If this is negatively impacted then the UK is likely to be much more negatively affected;
  • Extent and coverage of post-Brexit economic and trade deals between the UK and other leading economies, including of course the EU; and
  • Progress in maintaining a liberal economic environment within the UK post Brexit. If the UK uses Brexit to introduce a business environment that is unfavourable to economic activity, the impact for the growth outlook could be highly negative.

Never ending palaver....
 
Vic said:
Exclude me from "we" .... Half the voters got what they wanted (if they understood CU and SM) - except those who voted Leave who wanted to stay in EFTA, so (unless MB was the only one) most voters didn't necessarily want to be out of the CU and SM.

(No need to rehearse the "what Leave wanted" stuff - I'm just making a distinction between healing division and revisionism on what the divisions were.)
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I’m not in the “we” either but I was referring to what the majority of the voting electorate voted for whether they realised it or not (in many cases clearly not).
 
BobKowalski said:
Agreed. If the purpose of Brexit and this deal is to ‘liberate’ the UK from the EU economic orbit then it fails to do this. The deal, along with the WA and the NI protocols keeps the UK within that orbit.

Rather than calling this deal a Free Trade Agreement, it should be a Managed Trade Agreement with its rules, committees, and arbitrations in which trade between the UK and EU and trade between GB and NI is managed and codified. It reflects the reality of our geographical position and relative size of the UK and EU.

Remainers should be reasonably happy with the deal given it provides a base for future negotiations on things that we will inevitably want back in and as you say is infinitely better than no deal.

The media is just falling into the same pattern of the WA and NI protocols. Initially declaring a huge victory, then urging the Govt to unilaterally disregard the agreement nine months later.

Fact is, the WA provisions are still there, there will be a customs border in the Irish Sea, NI citizens will get additional benefits not available to other UK citizens and we now have a deal that manages trade between the UK and EU with rules and penalty provisions built in. UK firms will also face greater administrative burdens when trading with Europe, so a boon to the UK red tape industry at least.

Not great for UK industries, but could have been a lot worse.
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But we do get the £350 million a week for the NHS ....... Yes?
 
BlueAnorak said:
Ha and now the CBI decides that the deal is so good we will outstrip the EU in terms of growth over the next 15 years...
Load of bollox of course. Economic predictions are like cutting open a goat and examining the entrails. Effing useless.
Still we are finally free of the drive to political union.
Click to expand...

BlueAnorak said:
Why?
Well some clever chap is bound to point out that there were a large number of economic projections stating Brexit woukd be a disaster.
One has to be consistent.
Leaving the EU political project is the be all and end all for most leavers.
Click to expand...


But the Treaty of Rome (which Heath agreed illegally without a referendum) clearly points towards

KEY POINTS

Aims

  • The aim of the EEC and the common market was to:
    • transform the conditions of trade and production on the territory of its 6 members and
    • serve as a step towards the closer political unification of Europe.

Why do people object when the Eu moves towards a ''closer political unification of Europe''
 
Vic said:
Re the last point, much as I hate what the Tory party has become (which means I guess lower than the historic lower than vermin), I hope it's not policy for divisiveness, identity and culture wars, but just run of the mill idiocy.
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Whilst I agree with you mate that the Tories are run of the mill idiots or incompetents when it comes to running the affairs of the country, they are absolutely superb and ruthless when it comes to winning power ( often at the expense of the country). Take the last ten years as living proof of that.
They are of course helped by a printed media that is almost entirely on their side, and a tame broadcast media. Also they are lucky with a FPTP system in which the opposition is split and Labour losing Scotland.
So where we are today they have no intention of levelling up or bringing the nation together. It will take too much money, too much hard work and competence ( which they don't possess) and too much risk.
Much easier to divide and rule, throw a few financial crumbs at their Northern wall whilst feeding them a diet of nationalism and xenophobia and keeping on side a solid base of middle cast voters ( where they lag behind labour) who will happily support a populist agenda which protects their financial interests - a difficult balancing but one the Tories are eminently capable of achieving.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
But the Treaty of Rome (which Heath agreed illegally without a referendum) clearly points towards

KEY POINTS

Aims

  • The aim of the EEC and the common market was to:
    • transform the conditions of trade and production on the territory of its 6 members and
    • serve as a step towards the closer political unification of Europe.

Why do people object when the Eu moves towards a ''closer political unification of Europe''
Click to expand...
Illegally?
 
Vic said:
Illegally?
Click to expand...


According to some.... it was a constitutional change and should have been subject to a referendum ... but it wasn't held and was signed without full disclosure to the population.

In 1973 , after Labour gained power, this was realised and Wilson elected to hold a referendum to correct the error. The vote was overwhelmingly to remain...

www.express.co.uk

Letter revealing Edward Heath 'LIED to UK over EU entry' exposed

EDWARD HEATH had been warned about the constitutional implications of joining the European Economic Community (EEC) in a letter written by the Lord Chancellor - but he decided to keep quiet and promise the British people the country's entry would not involve any loss of essential sovereignty...
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk

Questions remain over Labours referendum as some say it was worded incorrectly and should've said '' Should the UK Continue to be in the EU'' rather than ''stay the Eu''

Labour eh. What are they like? Always trying to solve the problems created by the Tories.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
According to some.... it was a constitutional change and should have been subject to a referendum ... but it wasn't held and was signed without full disclosure to the population.

In 1973 , after Labour gained power, this was realised and Wilson elected to hold a referendum to correct the error. The vote was overwhelmingly to remain...

www.express.co.uk

Letter revealing Edward Heath 'LIED to UK over EU entry' exposed

EDWARD HEATH had been warned about the constitutional implications of joining the European Economic Community (EEC) in a letter written by the Lord Chancellor - but he decided to keep quiet and promise the British people the country's entry would not involve any loss of essential sovereignty...
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk

Questions remain over Labours referendum as some say it was worded incorrectly and should've said '' Should the UK Continue to be in the EU'' rather than ''stay the Eu''

Labour eh. What are they like? Always trying to solve the problems created by the Tories.
Click to expand...

There was absolutely nothing illegal or unconstitutional about the accession.
 
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