Astonishing developments in AI

Chippy_boy said:
Just a matter of time, mate. AI will replace all intellectual work pretty soon, but robotics is currently a bit behind. But it will catch up fast. We’ve only just started powering robots with large neural nets and initially these were not fast enough to produce robots with fast reflexes and fantastic manual dexterity. But speed up the processing and that comes naturally. The rate of increase of processing power is SO rapid that are now already seeing robots that can run, not walk. In a decade we’ll have perhaps 1m times more powerful hardware and robots will be able to e.g. beat Alcaraz at tennis. It will not be decades before they are working in care homes.
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I'm sure you're right. Even if the robots don't replace physical care staff for a while I can see ChatGPT, for example, getting a human voice to speak to and help elderly folk. MumsNet is already full of examples of ChatGPT offering emotional as well as practical support.
 
Chippy_boy said:
How old are you?

I’m 63 and I am pretty sure I won’t see it in my lifetime. Not because the technology won’t be available - I am sure it will be. But because of 2 things, both somewhat related:

First, we need global alignment. Image country/economy A can reduce its costs of goods and services by replacing all the human labour with AI and robots, putting millions out of work and keeping them on the dole. Country B on the other hand also uses AI to replace everyone but taxes all its businesses at say 90% so it can provide a very high level of universal basic income. Immediately, B’s goods and services would be totally uncompetitive with that of A and its economy would soon go down the pan. So doing what B is doing cannot be done unilaterally, it needs global alignment, which we are nowhere near having.

Second, I don’t see us getting global alignment until we’ve been through some pain. I think we have to go through sharply rising unemployment, political and finally civil unrest, perhaps even civil war, before we realise that keeping say 30%, 40%, 50% of the population unemployed and broke, whilst everyone else is having a ball, cannot work. It’s going to take decades to see this unfold I think.

I’m optimistic that it will be nirvana in 100 years, but I expect a rough ride along the way. Unless AI just kills everyone way before then, btw. Which I reckon is pretty much 50-50 odds at this point. And that’s assuming we pour massive resources in to prevent it, which we’re not doing. Carry on as we are and we are in deep trouble.
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I’m 34 so I’m just hoping they somehow sort all this out in time for me to retire! But maybe that’s optimistic.

I think all fair and plausible points. The one thing I would add is that in your scenario of Country A and Country B, we need to think about the demand side of the equation.

Country A may be in a race to the bottom in terms of pricing and a race to the top in terms of unemployment, but in this scenario the population’s propensity to consume is going to be vastly diminished. The Country A companies will therefore be forced to look abroad for consumers of their product (not too different to today’s developing economies where we might see them producing goods that their own population can’t generally afford).

So Country A now exports the products to Country B whose people can afford the products. But how does Country B generate an income if their own products aren’t price competitive? Historically this is a problem solved with tariffs but who knows what this brave new world looks like. Whatever the case I think this will ultimately act as a driver for finding some kind of equilibrium much faster. Every human on earth has an equal “consuming potential” and I don’t think it will take long for people to realise that.

The challenge is still that the pace of unemployment increases may differ drastically from country to country given the make up of their respective economies. So it likely will still take a long time and won’t be as simplified and straightforward as the above scenario, but I’m not sure countries will have the luxury of decades to fall in line.
 
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