It'd be a shame if Ronaldo wins it in a world cup year, after the absolutely disastrous world cup he had. Not a surprise though, cos he's usually inconsistent in big games and doesn't look close to being one of the top 10 players on the pitch in those games never mind the world. His goalscoring record is phenomenal and he is undoubtedly a very talented player but he's always gonna score with the amount of shots he's allowed to have and the penalties he gets, by virtue of being in a team that dominates possession and creates chances for him. Put him in a shit Portugal team (as we saw this year) or in most other big games, he's reduced to a very good counter-attacking player but can be absolutely non-existent if no-one is there to put him in because he can't come in and help retain possession the same way that Messi, Robben, Ribery, Reus and many other top wingers can. It's a big flaw that rarely gets exposed when you play for Real Madrid, but when you play for Portugal and you can't get on the ball, and can't afford to have 10 shots from 30 yards out because you might not see the ball for another 5 minutes, then you become a liability. He scores more goals for Real than other player, but he also concedes the ball more than any other player. As I say, if this wasn't a world cup year and if he didn't have to play for Portugal, then he should be a contender, but the Ballon D'or is an award for the best all-round player for performances in all games. There are separate awards for scoring the most goals and he has deservedly won them but he shouldn't win the ballon d'or.
For me:
1. Robben
2. Neuer
I don't really have a strong opinion on who should come third but an honourable mention should be given to David Silva who was, at times, the best player in the world this year.