Bitcoin (cryptocurrency)

[Scottyboi]

It has gone down 10% this morning. It's a speculative bubble and not an investment for anyone other than the equivalent of having a bet on a football match or race horse.

So reply after it has a 10% dip. Bitcoin does that all the time it also goes parabolic and jumps 100%.

Like I said alot more financial institutions and hedge funds are putting money into it. Tulip mania is a lazy comparison people have been saying it about bitcoin since like 2007 and it just keeps going from strength to strength.

 

[zerox]

Anyone who has bought bitcoin at any stage in the last 10 years, except for the last 10 days has at least doubled their money. Many have ten folded or hundred folded, or more.

 

[Scottyboi]

Anyone who has bought bitcoin at any stage in the last 10 years, except for the last 10 days has at least doubled their money. Many have ten folded or hundred folded, or more.

Also a big community of people who now use it as their main currency and no longer have fiat.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Bitcoin: be prepared to lose all your money, FCA warns consumers

Regulator cautions public over risk of products promising high returns from cryptoassets

www.theguardian.com

 

[zerox]

pity they didn't warn Hargrave and Lansdowne investers about the Woodforde fund a couple of years ago
The chance of the FCA being right about anything, is about the same as the Government and covid.

 

[metalblue]

Also a big community of people who now use it as their main currency and no longer have fiat.

Ask anyone of them how “rich” they are and I bet they won’t say they have assets worth 100BTC.

I equally find such statements like this highly unlikely, how do they buy life’s essentials?

Unless the entire global economy was accepting of BTC (which it is no where near and won’t be ever with vol like this). A grocery store cannot be monitoring prices based on a 10% swing in value when it buys it product to sell in currency as it has to do today. Imagine getting paid in BTC? Sorry pet you need to go down to the food bank or Waitrose as i’m 10% better off or worst off this months pay cheque. Crazy talk

Banks and hedge funds don’t give two hoots about the “story” behind BTC they just love a bit of vol and getting the right side of it to make cash (measured in USD/GBP/etc not BTC)

Society needs inflation to erode debt and promote internal investment along with interest to promote external investment. Furthermore if requires stability of currency. BTC lacks all of these fundamental requirements so remains just a punt.

Hope you keep making GBP cash out of it mate, I don’t trade it but if I did I’d want to buy a call option, keep it hedged and ride the vol.

 

[adrianr]

Bitcoin was Tulip mania when it was £30 a coin. It's something else now entirely.

 

[metalblue]

Bitcoin was Tulip mania when it was £30 a coin. It's something else now entirely.

It really isn’t and you are making the classic mistake of valuing BTC in a fiat currency which really defeats any argument for it. Put another way I don’t value my house in USD because I live in the UK.

The underlying “product” of Bitcoin has no inherent value yet is being marked at irrational levels. The hallmark of a bubble. Furthermore there are several BTC available. OI is a key indicator and this appears to have remained relatively static since the last rally (ie no new money, just folk trading within their collective another hallmark of a bubble that refuses to know it’s one) until this latest rally where we can see new money coming in but already we are seeing the indicators of massive profit taking with this drop. There is an old trading adage that says if something is easy to sell you hold on to it, but when I see profit taking having this much of an impact on price it is telling me it is hard to sell, this means the new money is exhausting has nothing to back it up.

This doesn’t mean this is the end or a crash or new money won’t join the fray at lower levels (or reinvestment of profits) but my advice
would be to get long vol (if it’s not already prohibitively expensive) or take your profit (some or all depending on your entry point) and let the games play out. These are professional traders who make money (in $) by sniping off the causal trader or firms who are only able to play from the long side, you’re best to not try and get in their way.

The best tip I can give anyone would be to ask yourself every day would you buy it here. If the answer is no then why are you still long?


Good luck

 

[zerox]

@metalblue
What would you pick to invest £5000 in of the following
straight S&P
tesla
bitcoin
Looking at a 12 month investment.

 

[metalblue]

@metalblue
What would you pick to invest £5000 in of the following
straight S&P
tesla
bitcoin
Looking at a 12 month investment.

Mate forgive me but I wouldn’t give that sort of advice. Maybe @SWP's back might.

As a mate over a pint I might causally mention that I think I can still see some value in Miners. Then make a joke about how Gordon Gekko tells me “Blue moon loves copper”. Although I’d remind Gekko of the many headwinds to economic stimulus