Champions League group permutations

[kennycar]

Just been working out all the possible permutations of our group games and it's a bit complicated (mathematicaly Villarreal could still finish top), but it basically boils down to:

For us another 9 points guarantees qualification, 9 points and a win by a margin of greater than 2 against Munich guarantees top of the group. (remember head-to-head points, difference, goals, total difference, total goals decide tie breaks in that order).

Another 7 points almost guarantees qualification; The only chance of us not going through with another 7 points is where everyone beats Villareal, we beat Napoli and draw to Munich and Napoli beat Munich, in which case 3 teams finish on 11 points and the 3-way tiebreaker would have all three level on points against the other two, therefore goal difference (in games not involving Villarreal) would come into it next.

7 points where the draw is against Villarreal or Napoli guarantees qualification.

Lastly 6 points guarantees qualification IF they are against Napoli and Munich AND we beat Munich by a margin greater than 2. Nothing else will guarantee qualification.

All these permutations are considering the worst (for us) possible outcomes in the other games, ie especially that Villarreal lose every other game. Hopefully Villarreal take points off Napoli or Munich, or Munich beat Napoli and make it easier for us.

Edit: Thanks Corky.

 

[mcfc-mike]

phew.... glad thats straightened up then :)

 

[kennycar]

I know, I'm quite sad, but someone might be interested if they are as dull as me.
;)

 

[wisinc]

Way too complicated.
Napoli will be hard to break.
It'll be over by the time we play Bayern.
If we don't win tomorrow it'll be hard.

Simple.

 

[Corky]

Just been working out all the possible permutations of our group games and it's a bit complicated (mathematicaly Villarreal could still finish top), but it basically boils down to:

For us another 9 points guarantees qualification, 9 points and a 3 - 1 or 4 - 2 etc win (or a margin of greater than 2) aginst Munich guarantees top of the group. (remember head-to-head points, difference, goals, total difference, total goals decide tie breaks in that order).

Another 7 points almost guarantees qualification; The only chance of us not going through with another 7 points is where everyone beats Villareal, we beat Napoli and draw to Munich and Napoli beat Munich, in which case 3 teams finish on 11 points and the 3-way tiebreaker would have all three level on points against the other two, therefore goal difference (in games not involving Villarreal) would come into it next.

7 points where the draw is against Villarreal or Napoli guarantees qualification.

Lastly 6 points guarantees qualification IF they are against Napoli and Munich AND we beat Munich 3 -1 or 4 -2 etc (or by a margin greater than 2). Nothing else will guarantee qualification.

All these permutations are considering the worst (for us) possible outcomes in the other games, ie especially that Villarreal lose every other game. Hopefully Villarreal take points off Napoli or Munich, or Munich beat Napoli and make it easier for us.

If we beat BM 3-1 or 4-2 they would beat us on head to head i.e. 3-3 or 4-4 with them having the only away goal/s.

 

[Andouble]

should we win tomorrow whether we qualify or not depends on the Napoli match. Whether we beat them or draw them Bayern will be in great position if not already qualified, rendering their match against us meaningless (for them). I think we'll take all 3 points against them at ours.

we really need Bayern to defeat Napoli tomorrow.

 

[kennycar]

Just been working out all the possible permutations of our group games and it's a bit complicated (mathematicaly Villarreal could still finish top), but it basically boils down to:

For us another 9 points guarantees qualification, 9 points and a 3 - 1 or 4 - 2 etc win (or a margin of greater than 2) aginst Munich guarantees top of the group. (remember head-to-head points, difference, goals, total difference, total goals decide tie breaks in that order).

Another 7 points almost guarantees qualification; The only chance of us not going through with another 7 points is where everyone beats Villareal, we beat Napoli and draw to Munich and Napoli beat Munich, in which case 3 teams finish on 11 points and the 3-way tiebreaker would have all three level on points against the other two, therefore goal difference (in games not involving Villarreal) would come into it next.

7 points where the draw is against Villarreal or Napoli guarantees qualification.

Lastly 6 points guarantees qualification IF they are against Napoli and Munich AND we beat Munich 3 -1 or 4 -2 etc (or by a margin greater than 2). Nothing else will guarantee qualification.

All these permutations are considering the worst (for us) possible outcomes in the other games, ie especially that Villarreal lose every other game. Hopefully Villarreal take points off Napoli or Munich, or Munich beat Napoli and make it easier for us.

If we beat BM 3-1 or 4-2 they would beat us on head to head i.e. 3-3 or 4-4 with them having the only away goal/s.

Damn, correct although I don't think it goes to away goals (or until after all the other tie-breakers at least) I'll edit the original post.

 

[Corky]

Ten points seems to put teams through most of the time anyway. I would take 9 points with a 2-2 in Napoli right now.

 

[kennycar]

Ten points seems to put teams through most of the time anyway. I would take 9 points with a 2-2 in Napoli right now.

Usually, yes. I just don't think anyone else will drop points against Villarreal with all their injuries and poor league form.<br /><br />-- Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:31 am --<br /><br />

should we win tomorrow whether we qualify or not depends on the Napoli match. Whether we beat them or draw them Bayern will be in great position if not already qualified, rendering their match against us meaningless (for them). I think we'll take all 3 points against them at ours.

we really need Bayern to defeat Napoli tomorrow.

agreed. Come on City!

Nighty night.

 

[dctid]

Ten points seems to put teams through most of the time anyway. I would take 9 points with a 2-2 in Napoli right now.

Usually, yes. I just don't think anyone else will drop points against Villarreal with all their injuries and poor league form.

If we beat Villareal tomoz then its highly likely that they will loose all their games - its going to be a tough group to get through