Chat GPT

[Chippy_boy]

The taiwan issue, from China's perspective, has nothing to do with the chips. China's semiconductor manufacturing equipment developments are advancing, steadily. Not much anxiety over the chips.

Yes they are, but they are still behind at the moment. And also they could really screw the US if they took over, or even just embargoed Taiwan. The US would be monumentally pissed off but realistically what could they do, declare war against China? Never going to happen and Xi Jinping knows that.

Anyways it's just a hunch. We'll see over the coming couple of years or so.

 

[Alvin-blue-qhd]

But what about China's rival getting chips from Taiwan? Stopping that benefits your government in the AI race.

TSMC is basically an American company. Not precisely, but you know what I mean. The U.S. has the right to get chips from it. You can't & should not stop that.
No matter what will happen in the future, even if we win, it doesn't mean we can do whatever we want. Nor does it mean the whole story ends when we achieve victory. We still have to keep living in this world. American company remain American company. The Chinese Government will protect the legitimate rights.
We are not betting on America's defeat, and America shouldn't bet on ours either. The Government has already said this many times. I think that's the spirit.

 

[Alvin-blue-qhd]

Yes they are, but they are still behind at the moment. And also they could really screw the US if they took over, or even just embargoed Taiwan. The US would be monumentally pissed off but realistically what could they do, declare war against China? Never going to happen and Xi Jinping knows that.

Anyways it's just a hunch. We'll see over the coming couple of years or so.

I think mainland China will give it enough time to move the fabs to America. It's negotiable.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think mainland China will give it enough time to move the fabs to America. It's negotiable.

Actually you raise an interesting point about negotiable. If China invaded Taiwan tomorrow, the US is absolutely screwed. Not just in the AI race, but as a result, in the world economic and military dominance race. China becomes the overwhelmingly richest, most powerful nation on earth if it achieves AGI and as a result ASI first. And it almost certainly would do if it set the US back by a couple of years by cutting off the US' supply of nVidia chips.

So if I were Jinping, I'd be sorely tempted to say to Trump, we'll let you have your chips for a few years provided you stand back when we take Taiwan. Or we just take Taiwan and cut off your supply. Up to you.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Actually you raise an interesting point about negotiable. If China invaded Taiwan tomorrow, the US is absolutely screwed. Not just in the AI race, but as a result, in the world economic and military dominance race. China becomes the overwhelmingly richest, most powerful nation on earth if it achieves AGI and as a result ASI first. And it almost certainly would do if it set the US back by a couple of years by cutting off the US' supply of nVidia chips.

So if I were Jinping, I'd be sorely tempted to say to Trump, we'll let you have your chips for a few years provided you stand back when we take Taiwan. Or we just take Taiwan and cut off your supply. Up to you.

It is a balance of two forces in China. The military hawks who want to take back Taiwan and the economic reformers who see the opportunity for China to become the sole global economic superpower.

The pro business element of the CCP has been dominant for years and they are surging ahead in terms of producing the consumer goods the world wants to buy. A trade war is lose lose. But Trump's wants it anyway. So it gives the hawks a different rationale. They haven't invaded because of trade. But if trade is disrupted any way why not invade.

I think it's a bit drastic. I don't see China invading right now. They are on the cusp of dominance with new green technologies. And they can sit back and play long long term.

But if Trump kills trade anyway the reason not to is gone.

 

[Alvin-blue-qhd]

Actually you raise an interesting point about negotiable. If China invaded Taiwan tomorrow, the US is absolutely screwed. Not just in the AI race, but as a result, in the world economic and military dominance race. China becomes the overwhelmingly richest, most powerful nation on earth if it achieves AGI and as a result ASI first. And it almost certainly would do if it set the US back by a couple of years by cutting off the US' supply of nVidia chips.

So if I were Jinping, I'd be sorely tempted to say to Trump, we'll let you have your chips for a few years provided you stand back when we take Taiwan. Or we just take Taiwan and cut off your supply. Up to you.

I believe Americans should consider this: if they don't join the war, they will remain the world's military hegemon. But if they do participate, there is a chance they could suffer substantial military losses. This would damage America's international standing. That's why I often say a peaceful reunification is good for the U.S..

 

[west didsblue]

Apparently the Taiwanese company who makes those chips is in the process of setting up a new flagship factory in the US.

TSMC unveils $100bn US chip investment

Taiwanese company’s overture to Trump administration marks effort to ward off tariffs on imports

www.ft.com

Also looking to move some manufacturing to UAE

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/tsmc-is-said-to-evaluate-building-advanced-chip-plant-in-the-uae

Interestingly the Arizona plant is the result of a deal between Biden and TSMC/Taiwan, and unsurprisingly Trump has been trying to pretend it’s thanks to him. But that’s for another thread.

 

[Scottyboi]

It very likely will. The way this is going to come about is that everything will seem to be going swimmingly, and seeing more and more impressive results from AI, we're going to hand over more and control. Driven by the need to have the latest and greatest capabilities and not being significantly behind China in terms of military capability. We'll see how much benefit they are bringing and our confidence in using them will only increase. We'll have no idea if the AIs are plotting our destruction because they will hide it from us, and, being vastly more intelligent than us at that point, that will be a piece of cake for them. Everything will seem completely normal until BOOM.

Edit: by very likely, I mean very likely they will control our nuclear arms. I actually don't think it's very likely they will use them to kill everyone. I think it's pretty unlikely but not impossible. And anyway if they did want to kill everyone, I doubt they'd use nukes.

Been having a chat with my pal Mr GPT. Asked where it thinks the AI race will lead us in the next 30 years.

It's as if we're in a simulator seeing if we choose the right option this time!

Scenario	Description	Probability
Collapse / Replacement	AGI misaligned or outpaces control, leading to human obsolescence or extinction.	35%
Technocratic Bifurcation	A few elite humans merge with/control AGI; everyone else becomes irrelevant or tightly managed.	30%
Authoritarian AI Control	Nations like China (and maybe USA under populist regimes) use AGI to lock in permanent surveillance states.	15%
Managed Coexistence	Nations and corporations cooperate, regulate AGI, and prioritize long-term alignment with human values.	10%
Human Flourishing via AI	AGI used wisely to eliminate suffering, empower humanity, solve climate/inequality, and deepen freedom.	5%
Local / Off-Grid Humanism	Global chaos, but small human enclaves thrive outside the system — preserving culture, soul, autonomy.	5%

 

[Chippy_boy]

It is a balance of two forces in China. The military hawks who want to take back Taiwan and the economic reformers who see the opportunity for China to become the sole global economic superpower.

The pro business element of the CCP has been dominant for years and they are surging ahead in terms of producing the consumer goods the world wants to buy. A trade war is lose lose. But Trump's wants it anyway. So it gives the hawks a different rationale. They haven't invaded because of trade. But if trade is disrupted any way why not invade.

I think it's a bit drastic. I don't see China invading right now. They are on the cusp of dominance with new green technologies. And they can sit back and play long long term.

But if Trump kills trade anyway the reason not to is gone.

That all makes s lot of sense, providing you discount the following:

It's entirely possible that we may soon develop AGI and that ASI - Artificial Super Intelligence may emerge soon - perhaps almost immediately - afterwards.

Now if that's true, then the next possibility (likelihood most would say) is that ASI intelligence will explode, since something much more intelligent than humans, allowed to improve itself, will in a matter of weeks become even more intelligent and then even more so, as infinitum.

I.e. we might have AIs with IQs of 200 and then in weeks or a few months, 300, 400, 500, 1000 etc.

If e.g the US gets this first and can leverage it, then they cement themselves as the world superpower and China is permanently subservient. China will realise this now.

The issue is, this scenario is not decades away. It could be as soon as 2027. There could be no "long game" to play.

 

[mexico1970]

That all makes s lot of sense, providing you discount the following:

It's entirely possible that we may soon develop AGI and that ASI - Artificial Super Intelligence may emerge soon - perhaps almost immediately - afterwards.

Now if that's true, then the next possibility (likelihood most would say) is that ASI intelligence will explode, since something much more intelligent than humans, allowed to improve itself, will in a matter of weeks become even more intelligent and then even more so, as infinitum.

I.e. we might have AIs with IQs of 200 and then in weeks or a few months, 300, 400, 500, 1000 etc.

If e.g the US gets this first and can leverage it, then they cement themselves as the world superpower and China is permanently subservient. China will realise this now.

The issue is, this scenario is not decades away. It could be as soon as 2027. There could be no "long game" to play.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Apparently the Taiwanese company who makes those chips is in the process of setting up a new flagship factory in the US.

TSMC unveils $100bn US chip investment

Taiwanese company’s overture to Trump administration marks effort to ward off tariffs on imports

www.ft.com

Also looking to move some manufacturing to UAE

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/tsmc-is-said-to-evaluate-building-advanced-chip-plant-in-the-uae

That has to be the way forward - for the us to insulate itself (and the rest of the global economy) from china taking Taiwan by upping production of chips elsewhere.
Ultimately Taiwan is basically Chinese and should be part of china.

 

[bakerdave76]

AI,all Indian.