Cheltenham Festival Day 1 DISCUSSION THREAD

[TTTCITYBHOY]

One winner Tuesday, tow winners and two placed yesterday and one winner two placed today mean I am playing in the bookies money tomorrow.

I'd be happy tomorrow if I beat you in Bluemoon Champion tipster competition ;-)

Oi, you have been here long enough to know better.

Its TIPSER not tipster ffs lol

You may well do so as I traditionally do badly on the Friday

Tomorrow's a piece of piss law.
Beltor,Quick Jack,Black Hercules,Djakadam ,On The Fringe,Roi Des Francs and Ned Buntline are the winners mate.

 

[BlueBearBoots]

Lol noticed a good "money back if your horse falls" offer too. bet all the Annie's wish they'd had that one! Lucky for me I swerved it :)

 

[TTTCITYBHOY]

Well seeing as I can't find a general discussion thread about Chelts thought I'd put it here

hows everyone doing money wise ? The bookies laughing all the way to the bank or someone got lucky?

I had a good one today from coral - one of them open a new account offers :)

Annie Power cost me a few quid on the 1st day.Irish Cavalier got me back in.
Aux Petit done me ok on the 2nd day.
Vatour helped me BIG time today.
Probably just ahead.
Tomorrow I feel confident.

 

[Blue Punter]

wow , annie would of been my 5th winner , feel gutted. thanks blue punter ,follwed your tips.

What was his tip ?

Back Mullen lol

The Druids Nephew at 8/1 wasn't a Muliins horse.

Anyway, just checked the weather for Cheltenham. Looks like there's been heavy rain with more forecast to come throughout the morning and early afternoon.

Here's what Tom Segal has to say about possible the impact of a going change:

THE weather hasn’t been a factor for the first three days of the festival but it could be today because there is plenty of rain forecast, and that could have a major impact on the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.20).

If the rain really does come the likes of Many Clouds, Djakadam and Coneygree become much bigger factors than they would be on yesterday’s ground, while those who would be favoured if the rain misses Cheltenham include Holywell, Boston Bob and the last two winners of the race, Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth.

A few weeks ago I thought Carlingford Lough had a good chance provided his jumping held up and any rain might help him on that score.

He reminds me an awful lot of Synchronised in that he is not the most fluent of jumpers, but he stays very well and I still see him as one of the more likely winners. Silviniaco Conti has the best form but keeps beating the same horses and is quite a short price for a horse who has failed the test a couple of times at the festival. The cheekpieces have clearly improved him and he is the one to beat, but today I prefer Djakadam and Many Clouds.

The rain will be key to the JCB Triumph Hurdle (1.30) because without it I would fancy Hargam quite strongly and a dry night would help the free-going pair Beltor and Peace And Co get home.

However, if there is a lot of it then it would suit the outsider of the Henderson trio Top Notch. In the hope of rain overnight I would suggest having a few quid on him.

Quick Jack is undoubtedly the standout horse at the weights in the Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2.05)
It will be a big test for his highly talented claimer and, at the prices, I would prefer to back a couple of other Irish-trained horses.

Tony McCoy has opted for Princely Conn, who looks to have been trained for the race for the connections who won it with Alderwood in 2012. He might not want too much rain but he acts on soft ground and has some decent form with some of the best novices in Ireland.

JP McManus has two other runners who can also be fancied. Waxies Dargle could be well handicapped but is not an easy ride and will need the Carberry magic, so Sort It Out looks the other one to be on for Eddie Harty.

He is improving fast and couldn’t have been more impressive on his last two starts. I reckon there is more to come from him and he won’t mind if it rains.

Top Notch
1.30 Cheltenham 1pt win at 9-1 with bet365, Boylesports & Hills

Princely Conn
2.05 Cheltenham 1pt win at 16-1 with Boylesports (14-1 with bet365, Betfair, Betfred, Betway, Hills & Ladbrokes)

Sort It Out
2.05 Cheltenham 1pt win at 16-1 with Betfred, Coral & Ladbrokes

Djakadam
3.20 Cheltenham 1pt win at 8-1 with Coral(15-2 with Hills)

If anyone's interested, I can post Part II of his selections up later.

 

[BlueBearBoots]

BP Yep do please ta

 

[BlueBearBoots]

PaddyPower are offering 7/1 on AP McCoy to win any race today for new accounts might be worth signing up for

 

[Blue Punter]

Here you go BBB. Good luck everyone.

Roi Des Francs looked really good when winning a Grade 3 at Clonmel last time and he is by the same sire as Don Poli. Any rain will be in his favour and he will stay really well. Most people believe this is the one from the yard, but I think there is better value to be had by backing his stablemate, Grade 1 winner McKinley.

It wasn’t a good Grade 1 McKinley won at Naas, but it was still a decent race and he was far from disgraced behind Neptune winner Windsor Park and Nichols Canyon last time. I think he is well-handicapped off a mark of 136 and the booking of Jonathan Burke only adds to the confidence.

However, there is a big danger at the head of the weights in Le Mercurey. Paul Nicholls has been cleaning up in handicap hurdles this week, winning the Coral Cup with an ex-French horse like
Le Mercurey and saddling a 1-2 in the Fred Winter.

Le Mercurey has taken plenty of time to come to himself since coming over from France, but he seemed to be getting the hang of things in a good handicap at Ascot last time when he flew home late on and there is surely more to come from him.

It has been a brilliant festival this year and nothing would cap it off better than if Tony McCoy was to win the race named after him on Ned Buntline, who has clearly been trained for the race and is only 4lb higher than when second in it a year ago.

He has a great chance and the roof would come off the place if he was to win, but I’ve never been a great fan of the horse and he’s a very short price for a competitive race like this.

At a big price I like Grumeti for Alan King. He was good enough to run in the Champion Hurdle last year and has won two of his four starts over fences. He struggled a bit in very soft ground over a longer trip at Sandown but that was in Grade 1 company and this is much more his grade.

Yesterday, King transformed Uxizandre by fitting the horse with headgear and he reaches for the blinkers on Grumeti today. If they have half the effect they had on Uxizandre, Grumeti definitely has the ability to make his presence felt.

I’m not an expert in hunter chases and Paint The Clouds could be a class above his rivals in the Foxhunter, but this is the best race he’s run in and last year’s runner-up Carsonstown Boy looks too big a price at 20-1.

He stays well and bounced right back to form against a good horse over a trip too short last time. He is sure to have been trained for this race and has a good amateur booked.

Carsonstown Boy
4.00 Cheltenham 1pt win at 20-1 with Coral (18-1 with bet365)

Le Mercurey
4.40 Cheltenham 1pt win at 10-1 with Coral (9-1 with Boylesports)

McKinley
4.40 Cheltenham 1pt win at 14-1 with Coral (12-1 with bet365 & Hills)

Grumeti
5.15 Cheltenham 1pt win at 25-1 with bet365, Betfred, Betway & Ladbrokes

 

[bluealf]

And every single one of them horses are now shorter in price already.

 

[without a dream]

Doing excellently :) Had a double on Vautor and Call the Cops which has more than paid for my other bets. I've even forgiven Annie Power.

Had a tip from someone who works for Timeform for 'Value at Risk' this afternoon it's a pretty big price still (11-1) so might not be much in it but I'm having a dabble anyway.