City Have Bookies Running for Cover

[Scooby Blue]

Not to bothered about the unbeaten run as long as we are champions at the end. Two tough games away at Anfield and Stamford bridge. I would rather lose to Liverpool and beat Chelsea than draw both matches and remain unbeaten.

From a football perspective...I would tend to agree.

(apart from a game where we went down to 10 men early)...we only lost two league matches last season by a margin of more than one goal: Liverpool + Chelsea away.

I think you would have to admit we were pretty well beaten in both games (although goals came late in Chelsea game)...so big improvement needed this season if we are to avoid defeat.

 

[Blue Blood CTID]

Not to bothered about the unbeaten run as long as we are champions at the end. Two tough games away at Anfield and Stamford bridge. I would rather lose to Liverpool and beat Chelsea than draw both matches and remain unbeaten.

From a football perspective...I would tend to agree.

(apart from a game where we went down to 10 men early)...we only lost two league matches last season by a margin of more than one goal: Liverpool + Chelsea away.

I think you would have to admit we were pretty well beaten in both games (although goals came late in Chelsea game)...so big improvement needed this season if we are to avoid defeat.

Yeah, I agree we need a massive turnaround in these games this season. I think these games will be tougher than Spurs away and the 6-1 destruction of united. Any team that attack us the way they did will get ripped to bits of us on the counter. I'll be honest here and I hope it doesn't come back to bite me but I am confident of 3 points at Stamford bridge. I am more worried about the Liverpool game. Even though our team is better, they seem to have a knack of raising their game for the better teams in the league and fucking up against Blackpools and Swanseas. Traditionally we have poor record at Anfield but we are the dogs at the moment and massively improved on last year. The derby at the swamp was close last year and spurs battered us at the lane so I think we can be reasonably confident going to anywhere in the country and getting results as long as we turn up.

 

[mat]

The bookies know what their doing by manipulating the markets accordingly.

As De Niro said some officials and players in other clubs with links to the betting markets like an england international being paid more for his insider gambling knowledge than his playing.

I sincerley believe we will be cheated out of a title this season and it will proven beyond all doubt when we play the Scum at home.

 

[Blue Blood CTID]

The bookies know what their doing by manipulating the markets accordingly.

As De Niro said some officials and players in other clubs with links to the betting markets like an england international being paid more for his insider gambling knowledge than his playing.

I sincerley believe we will be cheated out of a title this season and it will proven beyond all doubt when we play the Scum at home.

Mat my friend, we are gonna win the league! Believe it.

 

[bernabias home shirt]

"I have had some bets at larger prices just for fun,after liverpool & chelsea if we keep unbeaten people will be shocked at what our price will then be! "

^^^

I have just re-calculated odds using following price / odds ranges:
Home games: 82% (toughest) - 97% (easiest)
Away games: 71% (toughest) - 90% (easiest)

(These are slightly tighter odds than my original back-of-the-envelope ones)

They reflect current match odds on Betfair for "dominant" teams in their leagues (e.g. Barcelona / R Madrid / Bayern Munich) playing games vs top 3 / midtable / bottom 3 etc.

These numbers give City a 4.2% chance of remaining unbeaten i.e. justifies odds of 23/1.
But half of those odds are accounted for by next 4 games.
i.e. Odds will collapse to 10/1 (or less...allowing for momentum / re-pricing effect) if we are still unbeaten after Chelsea game.

*Disclosure*: I am very active in football bets + especially Man City related markets on Betfair...and in recent seasons have often had interest on both sides of the price for markets such as making top 4 / making top 3 etc.
I currently have meaningful positions in winning league / making top 4...and smaller positions in remaining unbeaten bets...which I hedge on a pro-active basis.

I'm sitting on some very attractive bets regarding city, to be honest its gone to well & my major bets are not even city winning the prem..its the handicap betting which is to good to be true at the moment we are down to 2/1 ,ive also got top north west club... ive done top 2 finish and ive a beauty riding on us in a match bet with chelsea where i got not bad odds...

My only bollock was a large bet i placed on tevez to leave at 5/6 he then went to big odds on.. i should of layed it off but i let it role cost me 6 centurys (dozy twat)....
You may be about right with the odds after the next 4 matches i would say 8/1-10/1 betfair....highstreet will be 5/1 at best!.....

 

[Scooby Blue]

"I'm sitting on some very attractive bets regarding city, to be honest its gone to well & my major bets are not even city winning the prem..its the handicap betting which is to good to be true at the moment we are down to 2/1 ,ive also got top north west club... ive done top 2 finish and ive a beauty riding on us in a match bet with chelsea where i got not bad odds..."

^^ I find that I tend to lay off my City bets sooner than other bets...because I don't want my bias to interfere with the decision.

when we were improving (but erratic) this was sensible...
this season it may end up giving away a bit of profit...but I don't mind if it means we are winning things.

p.s. the best season I had betting on City was the promotion season under Keegan...the bookies were VERY slow to pick-up just how dominant a force we were and how Ali-B + Berkovic + Goater + Huckerby = goal-fest.
One game in particular was away to Sheff Wed...where they had us as narrow favourites...and I backed us heavily in supremacy spread-bets.
It was about a 1/3 of the way into the season before the prices / odds reflected our real domination of that division.

 

[The Duky Blue]

"I'm sitting on some very attractive bets regarding city, to be honest its gone to well & my major bets are not even city winning the prem..its the handicap betting which is to good to be true at the moment we are down to 2/1 ,ive also got top north west club... ive done top 2 finish and ive a beauty riding on us in a match bet with chelsea where i got not bad odds..."

^^ I find that I tend to lay off my City bets sooner than other bets...because I don't want my bias to interfere with the decision.

when we were improving (but erratic) this was sensible...
this season it may end up giving away a bit of profit...but I don't mind if it means we are winning things.

p.s. the best season I had betting on City was the promotion season under Keegan...the bookies were VERY slow to pick-up just how dominant a force we were and how Ali-B + Berkovic + Goater + Huckerby = goal-fest.
One game in particular was away to Sheff Wed...where they had us as narrow favourites...and I backed us heavily in supremacy spread-bets.
It was about a 1/3 of the way into the season before the prices / odds reflected our real domination of that division.

I think they've caught on pretty quick this time.I've just had a glance at the odds for Saturday ...And Newcastle who are 3rd and unbeaten are 9/1 to win..maybe I'll have to start predicting first goal and correct score to make a few bob