Comparative points v last season

[Blue Theatre]

Chelsea have been the best team so far, but they do have some weaknesses too:

- They arguably have the least strength-in-depth up front - what happens if Torres and Sturridge are injured / off-form ?

- Their manager has been in charge less long than the other challengers - may mean the players are less loyal if results start to drop ?

- If we drop out of the Champions League, we may be less distracted by the Europa League than they are by the Champions League, in terms of having to play our best players ?

- Also, the Terry / Cole problems may have adverse effects behind the scenes at some stage ?

... or perhaps I am just clutching at straws.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

I'd expect Chelsea to pick up a lot of points as they badly under-performed last season so it probably wasn't fair to include them. But it does show they are picking up points regularly.

But overall I don't think it's a completely unfair way of comparing like-with-like for the top teams. You'd expect them to pick up a lot of points against the relegation candidates, do reasonably well against the mid-table teams and drop most points against the European-place contenders. There will be swings and roundabouts along the way but I think it's as decent a guide as any other to overall consistency.

Question PB - if you do a mini league between the top 4, how often in the last few years has the winner of that league also won the title ?

Last season we "won" the mini-league with 15 points, compared to the rags' 12, with Arsenal and Spurs on 6 & 3 respectively.

In 2010/11, rags & Arsenal both got 10 points, with Chelsea on 9 and us on 5.

In 2009/10, Chelsea won the title and also the mini-league on 15 points, with the rags on 12 and Spurs/Arsenal on 6 & 3.

2008/9 is the most interesting season, with the rags (who were champions) only getting 5 points, whereas Liverpool won the mini-league with 14 points, ahead of Arsenal on 9.

The previous year, the rags had been champions but won the mini-league with 13 points, compared to Chelsea's 8, Arsenal's 6 and Liverpool's 4.

So apart from that one anomaly in 2008/9, generally the team winning the top 4 mini league will win the title.

 

[Zoff]

Chelsea have been the best team so far, but they do have some weaknesses too:

- They arguably have the least strength-in-depth up front - what happens if Torres and Sturridge are injured / off-form ?

- Their manager has been in charge less long than the other challengers - may mean the players are less loyal if results start to drop ?

- If we drop out of the Champions League, we may be less distracted by the Europa League than they are by the Champions League, in terms of having to play our best players ?

- Also, the Terry / Cole problems may have adverse effects behind the scenes at some stage ?

... or perhaps I am just clutching at straws.

Torres, Sturridge & Moses are our forward options, I know a lot of people make out like this is a problem area for Chelsea, it's not.

(btw Moses has played as a striker all the way up until he went to Wigan)
A.Cole & Terry will be fine.

There is something about important games coming quick and fast that adds momentum & success to teams.
You've probably heard the "united are always better second half of the season" cliché
Well look back at Chelsea past seasons...
- RDM comes in last leg of the season & rescues the season after a poor middle.

- CFC look like finishing out of the top 4, Carlo spends huge money on Luiz & Torres to get back into the top 4. Torres is a flop, but, Chelsea's form in the last leg of the season is the best in the league & catapults them into 2nd place.. (on the same points as City)

- Chelsea have a bad moment under Ancelotti almost throw away the league, but have a strong 2nd half of the season to win the league...

- Scolari is terrible.. Hiddink comes in & we have a great end to the season & could have been in the UCL final if luck went our way.

I'm only saying this because, with most big winning teams.... They live for big fixtures.
In my opinion the UCL campaign is more vulnerable to suffer from fighting on 2 fronts as compared to fighting for the league.

I put city in with United & Chelsea, I think staying in the UCL will help your Premier League form, because of that momentum.. unless you choose to disregard the league on purpose.

If you want to know where Chelsea are weak.. If Cech gets a long term injury it's horrendous for Chelsea.

Lampard & Torres are problems because of their status getting in the way of our best XI
Lampard is quality, but, he is also on the cusp of being Chelsea's top scorer ever.
At the same time, he's being asked to play as a deeper midfielder.

As City fans you are familiar with the De Jong tactical switch where Yaya would get freed out of the pivot & allowed to attack. It's so important to have a disciplined pivot in place & I think that tactical switch shows how much Mancini valued keeping a disciplined pivot.

Lampard is ill-disciplined because he wants to score goals & whilst he is useful in attack, the games he has played we haven't controlled as well & are vulnerable on the counter.
Think of the Shield & Wigan & Reading & Atléti.. as compared to when he's been dropped we have fully controlled the game.

It's not easy for RDM to keep Lampard on the bench & considering how close he is to breaking a goal record, I don't think Lampard is interested in staying back.

I think a fast winger can make Ivanovic look stupid perhaps.. We'll have to see if it was just a bad day at the office but the Atletico winger Lopez made him look like a spaz.

Torres is holding Chelsea back imo. In the last 3 games, he's scored goals.. all volleys & 2 headers but, in all 3 games he's fluffed one on ones.
In the miniscule minutes Sturridge has played he's had better performances than Torres
& been more of a threat, it's just Torres cost £50m.

Torres doesn't make his own chances like Sturridge does & isn't as good in the build up like Sturridge. There will be games against bigger teams where he will just look isolated & stupid because he has to be fed & the few times he might get fed he's likely to fluff it up.

Finally Chelsea suffer in mid-season.. it just always seems to happen, the weather gets bad & cold & the new season novelty wears off & our results suffer.
Then back end of the season the importance of the games help to motivate the players to perform again. RDM is not a motivator like José to help Chelsea overcome this & we have a lot more smaller players who like to play the ball & that's more for summer football.... perhaps.

Those are Chelsea's problems.

 

[Braggster]

Mmm..Torres, Sturridge and Moses is a huge stepdown in quality from the striking options that we and trafford possess. (Though you are very strong in other areas, without doubt.)

Personally, I can't think of a player less suited to playing in Chelsea's front four than Sturridge at the moment (unless he has changed drastically of late). Your front four are all about movement, interchanging and passing, not selfish dribbling, poor decision making and trying to be a glory boy.

Falcao, on the other hand, would be absurdly good and score hundreds of goals in your team.

 

[white dog poo]

I think it is highly unlikely we will win all our remaining homes games, which we would need to do to equal last season's record.
We won 10 away last season so will need to increase that number to get close to 89 points again.
I suspect however the league will be won with around 82 points, and it will be a three way fight between Us, Chelsea, and you know who.

 

[Ducado]

I think it is highly unlikely we will win all our remaining homes games, which we would need to do to equal last season's record.
We won 10 away last season so will need to increase that number to get close to 89 points again.
I suspect however the league will be won with around 82 points, and it will be a three way fight between Us, Chelsea, and you know who.

Why is it highly unlikely? Have you seen our home record? I would say it's highly likely

 

[cleavers]

I can't see us winning all our home games from now either, but I have a feeling we'll lose less games than last year.

 

[white dog poo]

I think it is highly unlikely we will win all our remaining homes games, which we would need to do to equal last season's record.
We won 10 away last season so will need to increase that number to get close to 89 points again.
I suspect however the league will be won with around 82 points, and it will be a three way fight between Us, Chelsea, and you know who.

Why is it highly unlikely? Have you seen our home record? I would say it's highly likely

Would love that to be the case but you always need an element of luck in at least a few games.
Would get good odds on an accumulator to win the remaining 15 home games.

 

[Stoned Rose]

I'd expect Chelsea to pick up a lot of points as they badly under-performed last season so it probably wasn't fair to include them. But it does show they are picking up points regularly.

But overall I don't think it's a completely unfair way of comparing like-with-like for the top teams. You'd expect them to pick up a lot of points against the relegation candidates, do reasonably well against the mid-table teams and drop most points against the European-place contenders. There will be swings and roundabouts along the way but I think it's as decent a guide as any other to overall consistency.

Question PB - if you do a mini league between the top 4, how often in the last few years has the winner of that league also won the title ?

Last season we "won" the mini-league with 15 points, compared to the rags' 12, with Arsenal and Spurs on 6 & 3 respectively.

In 2010/11, rags & Arsenal both got 10 points, with Chelsea on 9 and us on 5.

In 2009/10, Chelsea won the title and also the mini-league on 15 points, with the rags on 12 and Spurs/Arsenal on 6 & 3.

2008/9 is the most interesting season, with the rags (who were champions) only getting 5 points, whereas Liverpool won the mini-league with 14 points, ahead of Arsenal on 9.

The previous year, the rags had been champions but won the mini-league with 13 points, compared to Chelsea's 8, Arsenal's 6 and Liverpool's 4.

So apart from that one anomaly in 2008/9, generally the team winning the top 4 mini league will win the title.

generally the team winning the top 4 mini league will win the title.

this.

 

[Zoff]

Mmm..Torres, Sturridge and Moses is a huge stepdown in quality from the striking options that we and trafford possess. (Though you are very strong in other areas, without doubt.)

Personally, I can't think of a player less suited to playing in Chelsea's front four than Sturridge at the moment (unless he has changed drastically of late). Your front four are all about movement, interchanging and passing, not selfish dribbling, poor decision making and trying to be a glory boy.

Falcao, on the other hand, would be absurdly good and score hundreds of goals in your team.

This is the type of reply I expected.
I hope we get to see Sturridge up top & rather than debate or speculate it'll be clear as day to see...

It'll become clear soon enough any way whether at Chelsea or elsewhere