Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Interesting to see what has happened in places like Wilmslow, Poynton, Macclesfield etc which were in tier 2 when GM was in three. Unsurprisingly cases have risen which is further evidence that all regions need to have the same measures otherwise people will look for loopholes and go wherever they can for a pint.

Exactly the 'unscientific' point I have been making in here for many weeks as it was very obvious from the daily data.

The government know it as Hancock actually cited keeping Trafford and Stockport in the same Tier as the rest of GM was to prevent them being liable to that impact.

Yet he let those areas of Cheshire be in a lower tier as I noted and said what would happen as a pandemic does not just give up if one route is blocked.

I started tracking in here Cheshire East for Andyhinch every night around then and have kept posting how both it and Stockport followed almost identical paths up up and away well before Cheshire East got moved up a tier the other day.

It was utterly predictable and the government just let it happen.

Only lockdown works. Tiers are dangerous to everybody not in the strictest measures. It just guarantees they are next on the list because we really should call the tiers sieves. THAT is what they actually are in a small country like England where anyone can go anywhere out of the same restrictions with no consequences.

Hardly need to be Einstein to figure out what would happen if you create a system that enables this.

 

[shemnel]

Infected.

Test results are approaching half a million, and we don't catch anywhere close to all of them.

So, very roughly a million infections a week right now.

ONS Infection model for 12 - 18 December reckons 645,800 people (95% credible interval: 610,100 to 683,100), so you'd have to think we're up around a million in the last week now.

edit: that's just England, but i dont think it changes much.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Modeling of the outbreak (not peer reviewed, treat with due scepticism) showing what we might expect with current restrictions.

I wouldn't take this as a prediction, but it's probably broadly what to expect.

Essentially, herd immunity through infection is reached early March. 20 million more are infected, more than wave one and two combined to date.

Deaths reduced somewhat by vaccination.

There are many caveats around this kind of model, but the overall picture is credible.

Not even half-way there

Lots of talk from politicians and others that, while not exactly triumphalist, is certainly very positive and enthusiastic about the prospect of vaccinating ourselves out of trouble. Here’s o…

bskiesresearch.wordpress.com

 

[Man_City_Loyal]

What’s tier 5 armed tanks on the street?

 

[Healdplace]

The herd immunity by 'unfortunate' accident model sounds very Boris.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

What’s tier 5 armed tanks on the street?

There is a hell of a lot that we aren’t doing in Tier 4 from the March lockdown.

 

[shemnel]

Modeling of the outbreak (not peer reviewed, treat with due scepticism) showing what we might expect with current restrictions.

I wouldn't take this as a prediction, but it's probably broadly what to expect.

Essentially, herd immunity through infection is reached early March. 20 million more are infected, more than wave one and two combined to date.

Deaths reduced somewhat by vaccination.

There are many caveats around this kind of model, but the overall picture is credible.

Not even half-way there

Lots of talk from politicians and others that, while not exactly triumphalist, is certainly very positive and enthusiastic about the prospect of vaccinating ourselves out of trouble. Here’s o…

bskiesresearch.wordpress.com

before reading this i had done a back of the envelope 15 to 18 mill infected so far, which agrees (in fact i think he's a little low)

 

[BlueAnorak]

there is no plateu in the rise. positive tests by sample date. 29th Dec had nearly 80k cases. Grey bars are still likely to be added too as numbers are processed.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

View attachment 7561

You do know it takes 3-5 days for 90% for people to get ill once infected. Look at the PHE reports on where infections are taking place

 

[Healdplace]

What’s tier 5 armed tanks on the street?

NO - Boris saying in Tier 4 I asked you not to do certain things. Now I ask you really not to do these things, Unless you really have to.

 

[Eds]

NO - Boris saying in Tier 4 I asked you not to do certain things. Now I ask you really not to do these things, Unless you really have to or you are a professional ex or current football, Love Island contestant or just a numpty and then carry on as you are

Edited for accuracy